Published in the New York Post on October 21, 2010
New York state’s congressional dele gation could see huge changes in the midterm elections. A virtual purge of Democrats is quite possible, with as many as 11 seats changing hands.
New York is traditionally a late-deciding state because of the high cost of media here and the late primaries, so these races are coming into focus only now. The key question: Will the absurd state of the governor’s race depress the “change” vote — or will New Yorkers opt to send a message further down the ticket?
Published on TheHill.com on October 19, 2010
A fundamental change is gripping the Republican grass roots as they animate the GOP surge to a major victory in the 2010 elections. No longer do evangelical or social issues dominate the Republican ground troops. Now economic and fiscal issues prevail. The Tea Party has made the Republican Party safe for libertarians.
There is still a litmus test for admission to the Republican Party. But no longer is it dominated by abortion, guns and gays. Now, keeping the economy free of government regulation, reducing taxation and curbing spending are the chemicals that turn the paper pink.
Things are moving fast and we now have a solid chance to defeat some high value targets: House Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank and the other Democratic leaders. Defeating these top Democrats would send a huge signal to the nation and would deprive the Democrats of some of their top leadership. It would truly be a command and control strike!
To the chess fans among us, I say: “Enough of the pawns. Lets go for some rooks, castles, and bishops. That way we can bring down their queen and, in two years, checkmate the king.”
Apart from the sheer joy of beating these Congressmen, it will make clear that we do not like what they have done to us.
Frank, more than anyone else except possibly Chris Dodd, is responsible for our financial mess. For a decade, he blocked Bush’s efforts to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Eileen and I wrote about this in our 2007 book Outrage and predicted that it would lead to a financial collapse. But Frank didn’t listen and now he seeks to evade responsibility. We want to run an ad explaining the facts to his district.
We will use your donations for these high value targets and to pursue Project 100, our effort to win one hundred seats in the House.
We are currently using your past donations to target seven Congressman and are about to hit nine more. Your donations will help us go after Frank and a bunch of other Democrats who we can defeat!
Thanks for your help,
Democrats have no message as the election approaches.
Published on National Review Online on October 18, 2010
A pattern is emerging in the 2010 midterm elections that is repeating itself in scores of districts and a dozen states throughout the nation. The rhythm of the races is becoming clear.
Because the Obama agenda proved so unpopular, Republicans opened the Senate and Congressional races of 2010 in surprisingly good shape. Districts that were supposed to have safe Democratic incumbents generated polls showing unexpectedly competitive races, even against unknown Republican challengers. Marginal Democratic seats actually tended to open their campaigns under water — behind their GOP challengers.
This election season, fiscal conservatives own the GOP grassroots.
Published on National Review Online on October 7, 2010
The coalition Ronald Reagan assembled of fiscal and economic conservatives, evangelicals, and national-security advocates has always been dominated by the social issues at the grassroots level. While free-market economic conservatives lived in New York and dutifully attended their Club for Growth meetings and national-security types inhabited Washington, the Republican social conservatives dominated the grassroots of the party. They alone could turn out the numbers to rallies and to the polls on primary or Election Day.
Published in the New York Post on October 13, 2010
The single most amazing thing in this year’s campaigns is that no one is defending President Obama’s legislative accomplishments.
Obama’s impact has been revolutionary: radically changing our health-care system, betting our national solvency on “stimulus,” erasing the line between the public and private sectors. Yet there is an almost total lack of support for his program on the stump.
Published on TheHill.com on October 12, 2010
With the Internet, we have all become fixated on that day’s polling, following the most minute changes in the swing districts on Realclearpolitics.com. But we are overstating the importance of polling in determining the outcome of the coming elections. (Odd thought coming from me!)
The fact is that while Republicans lead in 53 House seats now held by Democrats and are within five points in 20 more, the margins are very thin. In only 14 Democratic seats is the Republican leading by 10 points or more. In all the other districts, it is turnout that will determine the victor.
The mainstream media is peddling the line that the Democrats are staging a comeback, slicing Republican leads. It is absolute nonsense. A close review of polling in every close House race in the nation indicates that Republicans now lead in 53 seats currently held by Democrats and are within five points in 20 more.
And the trend is Republican, not Democrat. Of the races where comparative data over the past few weeks is available, Republicans have gained in 33 while Democrats have gained in only 10.
I am working directly in all of the races listed below (for free). They are all Republican House candidates running in Democratic districts. They all have a very good chance to win but very little money. Most have only recently come on the radar screen of the national GOP leadership and have not gotten the funding they need or could well use.
But, before you go down the list, please donate to SuperPacUSA.com. It is my effort to beat the 40 or so Democratic incumbents nobody targeted earlier in the year. We can beat most of them! I am doing an independent expenditure to elect the Republicans in these districts.
That means I can’t have anything to do with the campaign (have no direct contact). So please, in addition to the funds you donate to the candidates listed below, please give very, very generously to SuperPacUSA.com. If we can raise $10 million in the next two weeks, we can defeat a majority of our targets. We need your help to make it possible.
Now please go down the list and try to give something to each of these candidates. I believe they will all win if they get even a little more money. Please give to them generously:
1. Morgan Philpot, Utah
Utah should not have a Democratic Congressman, but it does. Hiding out in the most Republican state in the nation is Congressman Jim Matheson. It is Congressmen like him that keep Pelosi in power, coming from a highly conservative district that McCain carried heavily. Philpot is only 3 points behind but has exactly $25,000 in the bank! To win, he needs about ten times that (to afford Salt Lake City media). Please support him generously.
2. Mike Yost, Florida
One of the worst members of Congress is Corrine Brown, a member of the Democratic Black Caucus from a district that is half white (the Orlando area). She is a total liberal and anti-Israel. She deserves to be defeated. Mike Yost trails her by 49-43 but has only $30,000 on hand (a sum I raised for him during Tea Party rallies in Orlando). He can and will win if he gets funding. And Yost is a staunch conservative – a big difference.
3. Beth Anne Rankin, Arkansas
Thanks to your previous donations, Rankin is now only 3 points behind Democratic incumbent Mike Ross. Ross, who I targeted in previous appeals, is the head of the Blue Dogs in the House and the ultimate hypocrite. He voted for Obamacare in committee, when his vote could have killed it. And then – piously – voted no twice on the floor when he felt his constituents were watching. His district is South Arkansas – one of the most conservative in the nation. I am going there on October 15 to campaign for Beth Anne Rankin. A former staffer for Governor Mike Huckabee, she is a solid conservative and is en route to beating Mike Ross. Please donate to put her over the top!
4. Morgan Griffith, Virginia
His race was featured in Friday’s Wall Street Journal. Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher voted for cap and trade, a cardinal sin in this coal mining district. As a result, Griffith will defeat Boucher if he gets even a little extra funding. Boucher has been in office for more than a decade even though this district went overwhelmingly for McCain. Griffith is a solid conservative who proved himself in the Virginia House of Delegates. He had real guts to take on Boucher and deserves our support. He has Boucher under 50% of the vote and, if he gets his name out there, he will beat him.
5. Steven Palazzo, Mississippi
The single most conservative Democrat in Congress is Gene Taylor who took Trent Lott’s seat in south Mississippi. But it is hypocrites like Taylor who keep Pelosi in power. He also voted for the stimulus package. There is no way on earth this district should be represented by a Democrat. Palazzo, who was on active duty military service for two weeks last month, is a solid Republican conservative. Largely because of your donations (I did an in district fund raiser for him in August), he has drawn almost even with Taylor (down 45-41). He needs a little boost to make it to the top.
6. Tom Marino, Pennsylvania
The Democrats are waging dirty, personal negative campaigns this year but Congressman Chris Carney, Marino’s opponent, is setting some kind of record in this regard. He is peddling a story that Marino, a former US Attorney, recommended a felon to get a casino license. But the “felon” is a 70 year old guy who was convicted of a misdemeanor 40 years ago and has had a clean bill ever since. In fact, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court unanimously gave him a casino license and the Chief Justice wrote defending his character in doing so! Marino was cruising to victory when Carney started his mud throwing. Now he needs funds to answer and regain the lead. Please help out.
7. Rob Steele, Michigan
Congressman John Dingell wrote the Obamacare law. He is chairman of the House Committee that put it together. He’s a 55 year incumbent (longest in the House) and his father held the seat before him (since 1932 it has been in the family). It’s time to throw him out. He is now trailing Dr. Rob Steele, a heart doctor who knows firsthand how bad the Obamacare law really is. Dingell’s defeat would not just win us one more seat. It would send shock waves through the Democratic Party! Please donate.
Today, October 6th, is the first day this year that the Republican candidate leads in the most recent poll in ten Senate races for Democratic seats. If the Republicans hang onto these leads, they are assured of a majority!
Even more important, the Republican is moving up in all ten races even where the margin is still narrow!
The following are the polling data from the most recent survey listed on realclearpolitics.com: