Trump Will Still Win
The conviction of Donald Trump by a New York City jury will have no effect on the election.
There may be some short-term trend against Trump, but the public fully understands the nature of this verdict and the partisan bias behind it.
Judge Juan Merchan has guaranteed that this verdict will be perceived as a manifestation of judicial bias. His daughter’s employment by the Democratic Party as a fundraiser, and his biased rulings throughout the case make his bias evident.
Undoubtedly Democrats will attempt to make this verdict the linchpin in the election.
But they will be wrong to do so.
Voters have decided to support Trump because of the issues that affect them such as inflation, energy prices, crime, and immigration.
No amount of democratic posturing that Trump is a convicted felon can change that.
Indeed, the main impact of this verdict will be to assure that Biden will indeed be the Democratic nominee and his campaign will be infused with sufficient optimism that he won’t pull out even though he should.
If the Democrats try to make this election about the verdict, they will be making a huge mistake.
This case reminds me of the facts surrounding Monica Lewinsky and Bill Clinton. By wrapping their whole campaign around the president’s malfeasance, the Republicans erred fatally in 1998.
Voters felt that they were ignoring the real issues by only focusing on the president’s conduct instead of talking about the real problems they faced in their own lives.
But of course, we need to see how far the Democrats are willing to take this charade of due process. If judge Juan M. Merchan chooses to imprison Donald Trump or restrict his ability to campaign, that will become the only issue.
And it will redound to Trump’s benefit.
Big time.
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Can We Believe Polls Showing Biden Ahead of Trump?
As the presidential election nears, the political establishment is doing its best to hide the increasingly obvious fact that Donald Trump is winning . . . by a lot.
There are three surveys that honestly reflect the reality that Trump is winning.
They are the Harvard Harris poll administered by my former colleague Mark Penn, The New York Times Sienna survey, and the Rasmussen Poll, which was accurate in 2020.
These surveys all are weighted based on actual exit polls from 2020 and all show Trump winning big!
Harvard-Harris shows Trump beating Biden and Kennedy by 46-39-12.
Rasmussen has Trump ahead of Biden and Kennedy by 48-36-8. And The New York Times/Sienna poll has Trump ahead by four among likely voters but only by one among registered voters.
For the rest — mostly showing a very close race between Biden and Trump — there are real doubts.
So let’s take a journey into the weeds and dissect the surveys that show Biden ahead or rate the race as basically tied.
Economist/YouGov on May 8, published findings showing the two-way race tied at 43-43.
The problem with that survey is that among the 1,596 registered voters they surveyed, there were only 444 Republicans or 28%.
But in 2020 exit polls indicated that 36% of those who voted were, indeed, Republicans. The survey apparently packed its sample with Democrats.
While Democrats and Republicans voted in about equal numbers in 2020, the Economist/YouGov survey sample consisted of 28% Republicans and 38% Democrats, overstating the Democratic vote by eight points.
If your sample is eight points too Democratic to begin with, your poll’s result will be eight points too Democratic as well.
So the poll is in this case, understates the Trump vote by approximately this margin.
The Morning Consult survey of May 14th suffers from a different defect that undermines its finding that Trump leads Biden by only 44-43.
The Morning Consult poll only surveyed registered voters not likely voters. In 2020 66 percent of voting-eligible people and 71% of registered voters actually turned out to cast ballots — a record.
But while 155 million registered and eligible voters did actually vote, 63 million did not.
The Morning Consult Poll reports that among those who were eligible to vote, Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck. But what about the 29% of their sample who were nonvoters?
How, by studying nonvoters, are we to draw conclusions about what actual voters will do on Nov. 5, 2024?
The TIPP survey on May 6 also had the presidential race knotted at 42-40 but with Biden ahead.
Unfortunately, the TIPP poll suffers from the same defect as the Morning Consult survey in interviewing registered not only likely voters so, again, we are left to guess what actual voters think.
A fourth survey, this one by ABC News/Ipsos on May 5, also showed a tight race with Biden in the lead 46-45. In a novel effort to exclude voters who would, ultimately, abstain, the firm asked people to rate their chance of voting on a one to one hundred scale.
But then, having taken great pains to include only actual voters, the polltakers then let everybody into their sample so that 21% of the interviews were with people who admitted that there was less than a 50/50 chance that they would actually vote.
Indeed, they proceeded to interview even the 14% of respondents who flatly said they would not vote and then they mixed all the respondents together so we are left without a clue as to who those who will vote plan to support.
The fifth survey, taken by Marist College on April 22-25, also showed Biden ahead by 48-50.
But, unlike the other firms it drew its sample from a list of telephone numbers, not of voters. Marist found 1,109 registered voters who it interviewed out of 1,199 people with whom they spoke.
But unfortunately, they were too Democratic.
While the 2020 exit polls showed a nearly even partisan divide with 37% Democrat and 36% Republican, the Marist sample contained 36% Democrat and only 30% Republican.
If Marist had adjusted their sample to mirror reality, Trump would have been ahead.
Just this week, we are seeing two new slanted surveys.
As the election approaches and Biden’s ratings remain dismal, the questionable polls are proliferating.
Are pollsters desperate to make Biden look competitive enough to run?
Yahoo posted a survey on May 10-14 showing a tie race between Trump and Biden.
But, once again, it is based on a biased sample with only 27% Republicans (as noted, it should be 36% Republican according to the 2020 exit polls).
And Economist/YouGov tried again, releasing a survey of registered — not likely — voters this week whose sample was 39-29 Democrat, a bias of 10 points from the 2020 exit poll standard.
It’s finding — a tie race — it can be argued, is worthless.
And now for the key question.
Are what appear to be distortions in these five surveys deliberate, or just mistakes?
In analyses of the 2020 polling, a nonpartisan panel of experts from the Pew Research Center found that “it is clear that Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many, if not most, polls.”
Understatement of the year.
And, whether deliberate or not, it looks like the bias continues.
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The Odd Similarity Between Alvin Bragg’s Strategy And Kenneth Starr’s
History is repeating itself. In 1996, Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr tried to leverage publicity about President Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky to force Clinton to testify under oath and set up a trap to catch him committing perjury.
Now Trump’s prosecutor, Alvin Bragg is trying the same stunt. Bragg is hoping that Stormy Daniel’s testimony about her relationship with Donald Trump is sufficiently steamy and pornographic to induce Trump to testify in his trial and subject himself to the possibility of prosecution for perjury. He is also hoping that Michael Cohen’s testimony is sufficiently powerful that Trump has to take the stand to rebut it.
What Clinton and Trump have in common is that neither wants to testify under oath. What Bragg’s Democrats and Trump’s Republicans also have in common is that neither one is as interested in what Clinton or Trump have to say as that they say it under oath and subject themselves to prosecution for perjury.
Both the 1996 prosecution of Clinton and the 2024 proceedings against Trump are trying to use the embarrassment of a sex scandal to force the candidate to answer under oath.
Neither Bragg nor Starr could prosecute their targets for having an affair. So each is trying to embarrass their adversary so much that he has to endanger himself legally — by testifying under oath.
Here’s why Starr’s approach worked and Bragg’s won’t: Trump is immune from embarrassment and political harm — his support is too strong — and he does not need to take the stand to answer the charges, whereas Clinton did and he committed perjury as a result.
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Coming Soon: Mandatory EVs
So far, all of the laws designed to encourage people to buy electric vehicles have been voluntary – incentivizing the purchase of EVs through tax credits and such. Currently, California is about to pass a law banning the sale of gasoline powered cars starting in 2035. With at least a dozen states legally obliged to follow California’s fuel standards, the decision now pending before the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will essentially amount to a national ban on gas powered cars.
Consumers will have no choice.
Automotive News reports that the current average sales price for an electric vehicle is $63,000 – roughly $15,000 more than the average price for all other new cars.
We need a new national Pro-choice movement – this one to protect our ability to drive the car we wish.
As the election of 2024 draws near, the issue of automotive choice is going to become bigger and bigger. The high price of electric vehicles, the inconvenience of fueling them, their limited range, and the potential safety problems, have limited EV sales on the American market. Despite tax incentives and green propaganda, EVs only account for 6% of the cars on the road in the US today.
Already, auto makers like Toyota, GM, and Ford have cut back on EV production. Even Tesla reports a slump in sales.
But what consumers have rejected, California is now planning to require – that everybody have an EV.
This mandate could become crucial as an issue in the ’24 campaign. History has shown that voters strongly resist efforts to limit their choice of cars and are unhappy with having to buy of an electric vehicle.
And even as the momentum to electric vehicles has slowed in the marketplace, environmental advocates are switching their focus to hydrogen cars. Electric vehicles are likely to be obsolete even as they are being required.
Talk about an issue that can blow up in Biden’s face!
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The Young Male Backlash
The startling reversal of the Roe v. Wade decision by the Supreme Court has moved young women decisively against Trump and for Biden. In fact, of all the age groups in our country, young women is the only one that shows a gain for the Democrats.
But, now, it appears that there is a counter-trend going the other way: Young men are moving to Trump in big numbers. According to John McLaughlin’s polls, as of March 18th, Biden led among young women under forty by 21 points, but meanwhile Trump has widened his lead among under forty men. While Biden leads among women under forty by 55-34, Trump leads among young men by ten points — 51-41.
And abortion seems to have little to do with the male backlash.
The Survey Center on American Life found that while abortion was a critical priority for 61% of women under thirty, only 32%, half as many, young men agreed. Rather, the increasing attraction of young men to Trump is indicative of a nearly 20-point gender gap between Gen Z (under 25) men and women in identifying as feminist, according to the Survey Center on American Life. Only 43 percent of Gen Z men say they generally think of themselves as “feminist,” compared to 61 percent of Gen Z women. The gender gap is more pronounced among Generation Z than any other generation.
As the Survey Center on American Life notes: “The rising rejection of feminism among young men is almost certainly linked to growing feelings that American society has become more hostile to men. In 2019, less than one-third of young men reported that men experienced some or a lot of discrimination in American society. Only four years later, close to half (45 percent) of young men now believe men are facing gender-based discrimination. For some young men, feminism has morphed from a commitment to gender equality to an ideology aimed at punishing men. That leads to predictable results, like half of men agreeing with the statement, ‘These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men.’”
These numbers describe a major tectonic shift in gender and politics in America. Young men are sharply dissenting from the “Me Too” rise in feminism.
Put another way, in 2020 young men were only slightly more likely to describe themselves as liberal than conservative, with a gap of just two percentage points. Young women, however, were much more likely to lean to the left than the right, with a gap of a massive 27 percentage points.
Ipsos, the survey research firm now reports that nearly one in four Gen Z men say they have experienced discrimination or were subject to mistreatment simply because they were men, a rate far greater than older men.
Another Ipsos survey found that 60% of Gen Z men agreed that “we have gone so far in promoting women’s equality that we are discriminating against men.”
It’s becoming clear that Gen Z men—a group that includes men aged 18 to 26—are charting their own distinctive course on gender, sexual orientation, and identity issues and that they are moving in the opposite direction from the course young women are taking.
This male backlash is helping Trump overcome the gender gap against him kindled by the reversal of Roe v Wade and may be pivotal in helping Republicans win in 2024.
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Biden: No Bounce From State Of The Union Speech
An analysis of six national polls fielded since Biden’s strident State Of the Union speech indicates that the speech totally failed to move Biden up.
Trump led Biden in four of the six polls conducted in the week before the speech by an average margin of 2.0 points. By contrast, Trump led Biden in all five polls conducted after the speech by an average margin of 3.3 points.
Here is the data:
PRE SPEECH POLLS
Wall St Journal 2-28 T+2
FoxNews 2-28 T+2
NY Times 2-28. T+4
I & I/TIPP 3-1 B+1
CBS News 3-1 T+4
Emerson 3-6 T+2
POST SPEECH POLLS
Rasmussen 3-7 T+8
Morning Consult. 3-10 T+1
Forbes/Harris S 3-10 T+4
Yahoo 3-11 T+2
Economist/U Gov 3-12 T+2
Memo to Biden: Strident, partisan doesn’t work!
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Trump: Huge Gains Among Young; Needs To Do More Among Seniors
A comparison of the actual results of the 2020 election and the results of the NY Times/Siena Poll of February, 2024 indicates huge gains for Trump across the board, particularly among voters under 30.
But Biden still leads among these younger voters by 13 points, a huge drop from his 2020 lead of 43 points.
The only trouble spot for Trump is among voters over 65. They now back Biden by 6 points, a gain for Trump of 10 points but still leaves Biden in the lead.
Among the bulk of the voters, those aged 30-64, Trump has gained enormously, doubling his lead among those aged 45-64 from 9 to 18 points and moving ahead among voters aged 31-45 from a 20 point deficit in 2020 to a 7 point lead in 2024.
VOTE BY AGE
Trump leads Biden among voters aged 30-54. But Biden is still ahead among voters under 30 and over 65, although his lead, particularly among the younger voters, has dropped sharply
Comparison of 2020 and 2024 Votes
Age 2020 vote 2024 polls
18-29 B 69 T 26 B 53 T 41
30-44 B 55. T 35 B41. T 48
45-64 B 41 T 50. B36. T 54
65+ B 56. T 40 B49. T 43
Younger Voters (18-29)
The most dramatic shift between 2020 and the polling in 2024 is among voters under 30.
In 2020, Biden carried under 30 voters by 69-26, a wipe out margin of 43 points. But in the ballot test in Feb. 2024. Biden only led among under 30 voters by 53-41, a much closer margin of only 8 points.
Early Middle Age voters (30-44)
Biden carried these voters by 20 points in 2020 but now trails among this cohort by 7 points (B 41, T 48).
Late Middle Age Voters (45-64)
Trump carried voters in this age group in 2020 by 9 points and has now doubled his lead to 18 points.)
Seniors (65+)
Only among voters over 65 has Biden been able to minimize his losses. While Biden carried these voters by14 points in 2020, he still clings to a lead of 6 points
Summary
Trump needs to do better among senior citizens and continue his incredible surge among younger voters.
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Biden Is Not Delivering For His Base
The latest New York Times/Siena Poll clearly explains why Biden is falling behind Trump among young voters and Latinos and dropping behind his historic margins among blacks.
In the survey, taken in February, 2024, the pollsters asked voters whether Biden’s or Trump’s policies have “helped you personally?” And the results do more to explain Trump’s lead over Biden than any other measurement.
All respondents, said that Biden’s policies have hurt more than they have helped by 43-18. On the other hand they felt the Trump’s policies have helped more than they have hurt by 40-25.
Among the elements of Biden’s political base, this metric shows the president’s problem most clearly.
Hispanic voters overwhelmingly feel that Trump’s policies had lifted them up while Biden’s policies had let them down. By 15-36 Hispanics said that Biden’s policies have hurt more than they have helped. But, by 37 to 21 they report that Trump’s policies have helped more than they have hurt.
Among voters under 30 the sentiment is similar. Only 10% said Biden’s policies have helped them personally while 24% said they have hurt. For Trump, the numbers are reversed. 28% of voters under 30 felt that Trump’s ideas and policies have helped them personally while 22% said they have hurt.
Among blacks, the data is also in Trump’s favor but a bit less so.
African Americans report that the president’s policies have hurt more than they have helped by 17-21 while they say that Trump’s have helped more than they hurt by 26-24.
With negative margins like these, it is no wonder that Biden is failing to bring in his base to vote for him.
Trump’s campaign is scrambling to dull the negative impact of the reversal of Roe v Wade, but overall women believe that Trump’s policies — unlike Biden’s — have helped them more than they hurt.
Democrats hope that Trump’s historic problems with women voters will rescue them. But women report that Biden has hurt more than he has helped by 18-40 while they say that Trump has helped more than he has hurt by 39-26. No respite there for Biden.
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The Transformation Of America
Normally when one party gains ascendancy over the other or one candidate moves ahead in the race, he does so by nibbling away at the soft supporters of the other side, swinging the undecided voters and those who are only mildly committed to the opposition to his ranks. But this is the exact opposite of what Donald Trump is doing to Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. Rather than nibble at swing voters they are taking gigantic bites out of the Democratic base of young voters, Hispanics, and African-Americans.
While the head-to-head numbers between Trump and Biden have shown a steady increase in Trump’s vote, this increase has largely come from the former Democratic core voters. Now that that the racism that used to cripple the Republicans has largely passed, we are dealing only with its artifact — the solid support it left in its wake among young people and minorities for the Democratic Party. Republicans are transforming the ethnicity of politics and making the former Democratic base into the new Republican base.
These shifts are not incremental but reflect a change in consensus among young and minority voters about the parties. Increasingly young people, Latinos, and blacks are moving toward a tipping point where they were are shifting wholesale to the Republican party.
Tipping points start gradually and gain momentum quickly. Leon Trotsky, the Russian revolutionary leader, put it well: “change that once was impossible now becomes inevitable”.
Philosopher Herbert Marcuse amended the Marxist doctrine that change had to originate among the working class to posit that, these days, it has to begin in the schools and work its way up through the aging process to the opinion leaders. He called that process “cultural Marxism.”
That is how the left took over our society.
But now it is going in reverse. Starting among the Gen Z voters — under 25 — Republicans are becoming the strong majority. Howe and Strauss, in their seminal book The Fourth Turning observe that older people are more likely now to be Democrat and that younger voters are increasingly Republican.
The abiding casualties of the Biden economy are convincing Gen Z voters that their interests now lie with our side. As Trump succeeds — after he wins — in solving many of these problems, the Republican hold on these young voters will spread and intensify.
Among blacks and minorities the impact of this shift in their political thinking will accelerate. The tipping point is now underway. As it becomes more acceptable and widespread for Black people and Hispanics to vote Republican it will catch on and spread in the community rapidly.
Polling in the current presidential race has reflected for example a tremendously rapid shift among Latinos. As recently as three or four months ago the Trump vote among Latinos was a palty 26%, itself an important uptick from the 32% he likely won in 2020. But in a few months Trump’s vote share has zoomed to the high 40s and he now beats Biden among Hispanics in the most recent NY Times/Sienna poll Harvard Harris poll, by 46 to 40.
Shifts on this order of magnitude are only possible when the consensus develops in an ethnic community and spreads by word of mouth anointing one candidate and one party over the other. Particularly with young voters the fact that Republicans are becoming the in crowd and Democrats the outsiders is especially significant.
Media guru David Garth once said that the “hardest thing to do in politics is to reverse direction.” That’s not going to happen here. Not in this election anyway.
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State Of The Union Speech Is Biden’s Audition
Now that Trump has won the Republican nomination in resounding fashion with his smashing Super Tuesday victories, Joe Biden is facing increasingly panicked criticism from Democrats who dread a return of Donald Trump.
Thursday night’s State of the Union speech assumes the nature of an audition Biden must pass to continue his race for re-election. Democrats worry that he cannot deliver a speech, even with a nearby teleprompter, without stumbling and screwing it up.
Thursday therefore poses a test Biden must pass to be the Democratic candidate for president.
Michelle Obama, the leading alternative to Biden, issued a bland statement yesterday saying that she is not a candidate this year.
But the statement shouldn’t convince anyone. She did not deliver it in person but through her Director of Communications. We could not look into her eyes to judge her real intent.
We know that she, Hillary, Newsom and the rest are all for Biden until they are not.
But the plain math of Super Tuesday shows that any Democrat who is willing to bet his bottom dollar on Biden is a fool.
With degenerative mental and physical conditions, he will only get worse.
So the State of the Union speech gives Biden a needed chance to assert that he can complete an English sentence.
His problem is only compounded by the fact that his audience won’t believe much of what he says even if he does manage to get it out.
Illegal immigration has become the major issue facing the country. Nobody is going to believe that Biden will take the kind of necessary steps to protect the border.
Nor are his likely celebratory comments about his success in taming inflation going to be greeted with any credibility. With inflation still cited as the leading problem we face by one voter in three, his claims are only received credibly by his top — and top paid — economic advisors.
Biden has to pass his audition on Thursday to be able to quell the doubters and run credibly for president.
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