Iran: A Huge Success Brilliantly Played By Trump
To do so, he played a double game: Negotiate with Iran and lead its rulers to believe they had flummoxed the United States once again — just as they had conned Obama and Biden. But, this time, it was Trump who played the fox, inducing Iran to low.
Ts guard while our ally, Israel, was preparing a potentially lethal blow.
By letting Israel do the heavy lifting, Trump has his cake and can eat it too. He can accomplish his goal of denying Iran the ultimate weapon while avoiding another “endless war.”
Trump and Israel both understand the basic math of the equation — Iran cannot continue to spread death and mayhem unless we allow it to sell its oil abroad. And through skillful use of sanctions (and secondary sanctions on anyone who doesn’t cooperate) we can stop Iranian oil sales.
Trump has skillfully imposed sanctions not just on Iran but on shipping companies that would carry its oil to China and its other allies. By going after the logistical framework of Iran’s oil trade — the tankers, the insurance companies, the storage facilities, and the export machinery, the U.S. effectively shut down Iranian oil exports — and its funding to spread terrorism — until Biden lifted the sanctions and let Iran get off the mat and back into the ring. Now, Trump needs to retrace his steps and shut Iran down again.
Bear in mind that Trump is targeting not only Iran but China too. It is a twofer. Ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports (2 million barrels per day after Biden lifted sanctions) goes to China. And China gets 16 percent of its oil imports from Iran.
Without nuclear weapons, and with its regional proxies defeated (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Syria), Iran is very close to being rendered militarily inert. And it gets closer with every Israeli attack.
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Trump’s Unbelievable Economic Triumph
Here’s the data:
Because of Trump’s tariffs, foreign imports into the United States are down by an amazing 46% in the past month!!
According to an advance estimate from the Census Bureau, the goods trade gap plummeted 46 percent, to $87.6 billion, from the all-time high of $162.25 billion registered in March. This represented the smallest trade deficit for goods since December 2023.
- And there is no inflation. The annual US inflation rate is currently 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure represents the lowest level since February 2021.
- Or unemployment. The US Unemployment Rate is at 4.20%, compared to 4.20% last month and 3.90% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 5.68%.
What a triumph!
Despite the warnings of most mainstream economists, Trump has pulled it off! No real inflation or unemployment and a dramatic reversal of our historic balance of trade deficit!
And, it’s showing in the polls. Rasmussen Reports, a name many trust, dropped a bombshell. A full 50 percent of voters say America is finally on the right track. Yes, you read that right. Fifty percent. From ‘The Post Millennial’ reporting on Rasmussen’s Mark Mitchell:
“In 20 years, the percent of people who say the U.S. is headed in the right direction has never been higher than today.”
Mark Mitchell himself, the pollster at Rasmussen, called it “Uncharted Territory.” He even said, “Never thought I would see it.” He’s been tracking this since 2006. So, he knows a thing or two.
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Big Beautiful Bill Avoids Key Error That Defeated Trump In 2020
In 2017, as he came into office for his first term, President Trump made a key decision that proved disastrously wrong: He gave priority to efforts to repeal or reform Obamacare. The tax cuts, which ultimately did not pass until the end of the year (December 20, 2017) could wait until later. Health care reform came first.
The rest, unfortunately, is history. The Obamacare changes never passed and the months of 2017 ticked by with no tax cut. By the time the cuts passed, it was too late to make much of a difference in the economy before the midterm elections. Trump lost the House as Democrats scored a forty seat gain. And the stage was set for Trump’s 2020 re-election defeat.
Fortunately, the president has avoided repeating his error and has jammed through the House — and likely the Senate — his “big beautiful bill” (BBB) making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and adding new popular tax cuts exempting tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits from personal income taxes.
…And he passed the bill in the House, despite a razor thin majority, by Memorial Day! Now — if the Senate passes the bill — he can confront the 2026 Congressional election likely bolstered by a good economy. Coupled with his amazing progress in curbing illegal immigration, deporting those already here, and repealing key aspects of the woke social agenda, he should have clear sailing in 2026.
Trump pollster John McLaughlin bitterly recalls how his advice was ignored at a White House meeting early in 2017 and the tax cuts were shelved until the end of the year.
Now, Trump faces a delicious question: How to ride the good economy he will now get. The Harvard-Harris Poll recorded its most optimistic level in four years as 51% rated the economy as strong. And the proportion of Americans saying inflation is the main problem is down by five points. Now, for the first time since 2021, 35% say their personal financial situation is better, a rise of 5 points — and the tax cut is not even law yet!
He should use the extra revenues he will get from his new tariffs, land sales in the West, and the cuts in Medicaid and Medicare drug costs his new “most favored nation” will trigger to pass the big beautiful bill part 2.0 (BBB 2.0). He should use the roughly one trillion in new revenue and reduced spending he can expect to slash personal and corporate income taxes in the US, making our country a tax haven.
His blanket ten percent universal tariff should get him about $400 billion in new revenues ($4.8 trillion in imports in 2025 x 10%) and the increased tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada will produce hundreds of billions more. Land sales and drug price reform should raise the take in new revenues to over a trillion dollars.
Imagine how deeply that money could cut personal income taxes (that yielded about $2.4 trillion last year). It could be enough to exempt those making under $150,000 per year from any income taxes at all!
It’s time for Trump to think big…something he is awfully good at!
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Next For Trump? Tariffs, Not Taxes
In the maneuvering over the big beautiful Trump tax cut three prominent sources of revenue were left on the table and remain to be used. It may turn out to be the big beautiful Bill part two (BBB 2.0).
- None of the close to a trillion dollars in revenue expected from the tariff increases Trump is pushing made it into the “big beautiful bill (BBB).” The tax cuts in the bill are entirely funded by conventional tax revenues, albeit with optimistic but also realistic expectations of increased revenues due to economic growth.
- Trump has instructed his Interior Department to proceed with massive sales of federal land, largely in Utah and Nevada. The revenue from these sales was not tapped in the BBB.
- Trump is making drug companies hold their prices for prescription meds to the lowest they charge in other countries. The cut will reduce Medicaid and Medicare costs substantially. Again, none of these savings are in the big beautiful bill (BBB).
So, because of the arcane rules that control how the Congressional Budget Office scores expected new revenues in budget bills, these three sources of revenue enhancement and spending reduction remain on the table and could potentially be used to finance a BBB part two.
On April 5, 2025, Trump invoked his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to address the national emergency posed by the large and persistent trade deficit to impose a universal ten percent tariff on all imports. With the US importing $40 billion a month the order will generate over $400 billion in federal revenues annually. And, with even higher tariffs pending in negotiations with China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, new revenues to the US could easily surpass $1 trillion.
The federal government owns 28 percent of the land in the country, valued at $1.8 trillion. While most of it is locked up in conservation areas like national parks and wilderness areas, a lot of it is just wilderness far from any heritage-protected land. Trump has already called for massive land sales in Utah and Nevada. None of this revenue is counted in the BBB.
These new revenues, combined with the expected reduction in drug costs for the Medicare and Medicaid programs will throw off billions not counted in the BBB.
Together these revenue sources open the door to a potential BBB 2.0 that could pay for steep cuts in federal personal and corporate income taxes.
But, given the tendency of the bureaucracy to spend new found money, it is vitally important to begin the planning on how to use this revenue windfall to cut taxes. Otherwise, it will be eaten up by the federal budget, never to be heard from again.
Trump originally imposed the new tariffs to force other countries to lower discriminatory trade barriers against American goods and services. Then his goal morphed to include creating incentives for companies to avoid the tariffs by moving their manufacturing to the US (called “onshoring”).
Now a new vista is opening up: Using the new revenues to fund massive cuts in federal taxes. For example, it may be possible to end federal income taxation on those earning less than $150,000 a year.
So far, the potential for such a tax cut have remained dreams but, as the new revenues materialize, Trump should begin concrete planning on how to use the money. Otherwise it may go the way of the post-Cold War peace dividend and just soak into the soil of growing federal spending.
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I’m Opening My Political Strategy Academy — Enrollment Now Open
Dear Friend,
For the first time ever, I’ve decided to launch a personal political training program — and I want to invite you to be part of it.
The Dick Morris Academy is a new initiative for political professionals, candidates, campaigners, and advisors who want to understand how real campaigns are won.
Over the course of 12 live sessions, I’ll be sharing the same strategies I’ve used throughout my career advising two U.S. presidents — Bill Clinton and Donald Trump — as well as political leaders across Latin America, Eastern Europe, and beyond.
Six of the classes will be taught by me directly. The other six will be led by a world-class team of consultants and campaign experts from the region.
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- Starts: JUNE 12, 2025
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For further information or any questions, please contact us at [email protected].
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Trump’s Winning Trifecta
All of Trump’s crises look like they are coming up roses.
The “big beautiful budget bill”, Iranian nuclear ambitions and stopping the Ukraine war are all looking good.
Budget: House fiscal hawks are dropping their opposition to Trump’s tax cuts now that it is clear that they won’t increase the deficit at all or add to the national debt.
Until now, the projections of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) have been the gospel that underscores the consideration of Trump’s budget and tax cuts. But now it turns out that the Democrat-leaning CBO’s warnings that the “big beautiful bill” will add $4 trillion to the deficit/debt were based on the absurd prediction of zero economic growth during the ten year window.
Crazy. Using a 3% real growth rate, a far more likely scenario, the bill adds nothing to the deficit.
And, on review, three of the recommendations of the fiscal hawks make sense and can easily be incorporated in the legislation:
- Start the work requirement for Medicaid benefits now, not in 2029 as the first draft of the bill called for.
- Front load the $750 billion in cuts to the Biden “green new scam.” (Aka the Green New Deal)
- Scale the corporate tax rate back to 15%. Currently, with the deductions that most businesses take, the effective rate is 15% anyway but the bill should set the official tax rate at 15% without deductions.
So, after the Gang of Four deficit hawks —- led by Congressman Chip Roy of Texas —have secured their places in the news cycle by voting against the bill on Friday, incorporating these changes gave them the permission they needed to vote “present” and allow the big beautiful bill to go to the House Rules Committee and then to the floor.
Ukraine: Like the little engine that could, whenever this feisty freedom-loving country appears to have its back to the wall facing the big bear, it bounces back strong because of its courage, resourcefulness, and skill. Now, Ukraine’s massive use and production of drones has again turned the tables on Russia.
Ukraine is overwhelming the battlefield with 200,000 largely Ukrainian made drones each month. Eighty percent of Russia’s casualties (now approaching a million men since Moscow invaded) are due to drone strikes.
Ukraine recently dealt a major blow by knocking out 10 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity with drone attacks.
Drones have neutralized the Russian edge in tanks and reduced the Red Army to attacking on motorcycles. One Russian soldier reported that he hadn’t seen heavy Russian armor on the battlefield “in a long time and that everyday, we see five to eight assaults using motorcycles.”
Retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, President Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, said Russia isn’t winning — He reports that “after three years, they’ve gained meters, not miles.” One Russian commander said “We cannot afford to continue fighting in this manner. We simply do not have enough population for that type of military tactics.”
And the Russian economy is collapsing under the strain of the war. The Hill reports that “Russia’s economy, once resilient, is now faltering. Growth has plummeted from around 5 percent to near zero since late 2024. Trump’s tariff war has rocked oil prices, which also exposed how vulnerable Russia is.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has publicly warned of Russia’s possible disintegration. Another Russian commentator added, “I feel sorry for us. We’re being beaten.”
With such battlefield reverses, look for Putin to accept, gracefully, Trump’s offer of mediation and a quick cease fire and settlement.
Iran: It is no accident that Trump preceded his talks with Iran by visiting Teheran’s financial backers in the Arab world. While Trump loudly showcases his achievements in inducing the Saudis and the Emirates to invest in America, he likely also is getting them to cut or even end their aid to Iran, forcing the Ayatollah to negotiate with Trump. Look for a deal soon where Iran agrees to stop enriching Uranium entirely stopping the countdown to nuclear weapons.
Trump’s sanctions are clearly working and laying the basis for an Iranian surrender.
The budget, Ukraine and Iran. Wow! What a president!
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Trump Surges Among Millennials
The Democratic Party is held aloft by support from four basic demographics: Hispanics, blacks, millennials, and single college educated white women.
In 2024, Hispanics deserted the ship in droves and Trump carried 46 percent of their votes. The gender gap also closed among African-American men where Trump gained ten points.
Now, it is the Millennials turn to move toward Trump. A YouGov/Economist survey on May 9-12, 2025 (1700 interviews) shows a ten point improvement in his favorability between April and May. The president’s favorable score rose from 38% in April to 48% on May 12.
The Washington Examiner noted that the “surge marked the biggest one-month increase for any demographic surveyed in the poll, and it comes as millennials represent the largest bloc of the electorate.”
Millennials (aged 30-44) have had a storied history. While their younger peers, Gen Z voters (under 30) moved to embrace Trump before the 2024 election, Millennials held back and voted for Harris by 51-45.
Undoubtedly influenced by the electoral history of their younger years, when Millennials largely backed Democrats, the age group was reluctant to move to Trump.
But that is changing now.
The Washington Examiner noted that “Democrats struggle to capture the support of millennials, whose support for the Left has drastically declined in recent years.
The Examiner quoted pollster Jeremy Zogby whose research “captured the rupture”, Zogby noted that “the coalition of millennials now entering their 30s and 40s who easily pushed former President Barack Obama into two terms have flipped to Trump.”
Zogby wrote that “The president scores high among parents raising children — a voting bloc that largely corresponds with millennials who have now entered their 30s and 40s — the same group who helped carry President Obama’s victory in 2008. That amounts to a generational flip since the president’s first term when those older than 65 were a major source of Trump’s support,” added Zogby.
He attributes much of Trump’s gains among Millennials to a “change in how Americans are finding and consuming news. Those who have stuck with old media such as TV news and print lean away from Trump while new media users and those who rely on social media are joining his coalition.”
Zogby explains that his findings reflect “a generational shift in the country — voters under 45 are much less trusting of traditional information sources and have gravitated towards two- to three-hour long free-form podcasts and social media where satirical memes that challenge the national network and print narratives are commonplace. “When it comes down to it, this is arguably the real divide,” he says.
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China Pays For Trump Tax Cuts
No tax on tips? Or on overtime? Or on Social Security benefits? Tax deductions for auto-loan interest if the car is American?
Where is the money coming from for the Trump tax cuts?
China.
Trump’s trade deal with China provides for 30 percent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. They sell us $500 billion per year — that’s $150 billion of revenue. More than enough to fund the tax cut and a great deal more besides.
And, if China’s revenues won’t cover it, Trump is imposing a 10 percent blanket tariff on everybody. With the US importing $4 trillion annually, that’s $400 billion more of revenue.
Donald Trump is a sort of international Robin Hood — robbing China to pay the American people.
The Congressional Republicans haven’t factored these revenues into their calculations. They are bleeding themselves white battling over cuts to Medicaid when there is all this new revenue staring them in the face. No cuts needed to fund the tax cuts!
Trump negotiated his trade deal with China over the weekend of May 9-11. And, in the following week, Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled the tax cut program. Why has no media or no Congressman thought to correlate the two?
After decades of ripping off America with unfair and illegal trade practices, now China is being made to pay us back! And the money is going to waitresses who are hustling for tips, workers stuck at their desks doing overtime, social security beneficiaries, and purchasers of American-made cars.
The genius of Donald Trump!
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Trump Needs To Force House GOP To Count The Money
House Republicans are squeezing Trump in negotiations over the reconciliation budget package. Some have even suggested that tax increases might be necessary to pay for his budget requests.
But Trump has proposed more than enough new revenue to offset any needed reductions and obviate the need for any new taxes. It’s just that the sources of revenue aren’t being counted as the House grapples with the budget. Why not? Likely because they are new and creative and the bureaucrats at the Congressional Budget Office — that scores the revenue proposals — are unused to such novel approaches.
Trump is proposing a uniform, base tariff of ten percent on all countries that want to export to America. Such a tariff would bring in $400 billion in new revenue. (Total American imports run about $4 trillion a year.) With that money, the rest of the budget would balance easily but the bean counters haven’t taken notice and don’t include it in their budget projections.
House Republicans have also approved a plan to let Trump sell massive amounts of federal land in Utah and Nevada, but the bean counters haven’t factored that revenue into their budget projections.
Nor have the bean counters in the Congressional Budget Office even begun to come to grips with Trump’s drug pricing reforms that specify that Medicare and Medicaid can pay no more for a drug than the lowest amount charged in any of the ten major western economies of the world.
The impact of Trump’s “most favored nation” drug pricing reform on health care costs the government must pay is certain to be huge, but no allowance for it is included in the scoring that lays the basis for negotiations on the budget.
It’s time for the folks at the Congressional Budget Office to wake up and pay attention to what the president says. There is no way income taxes need to be raised when these new revenue streams are included. And there is no way the House Republicans need to cut Medicaid benefits beyond eliminating waste and fraud.
Let’s get real, people!
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The Coming Collapse Of Xi Jinping
It’s coming.
No leader, no matter how autocratic and dictatorial, can survive having made the plethora of mistakes that Xi has made:
- He neglected selling his products to his own people, opting instead to export them to the United States. About 20 percent of China’s exports end up in the US and only about one-third of its production of goods and services is consumed domestically!
- He picked a trade war with the US, ignoring China’s incredibly greater vulnerability. The fact is that Washington only sells less than $200 billion to China while we buy $500 billion from them. Losing the American market is a catastrophe for China but losing the Chinese market is only an inconvenience to the US. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
- He bet that the US would tolerate a huge trade deficit with China indefinitely, oblivious to the political calculus of Donald Trump.
- He has turned the clock back on all of the capitalist reforms of Deng Xiaoping that made the Chinese economy work and replaced them with Maoist statist solutions that have, as they always do, failed to bring growth. China’s economy had no growth in the first quarter and likely wont rebound this quarter.
- He has done nothing to counter the rapid decline in China’s working age population, condemning it to a drop in population to the point where the US will be larger by the century’s end. China is becoming a nursing home.
- Denied the legitimacy of Marxist doctrine, Xi depends on materialism and economic growth to stay in power. Now he has neither one.
- His foreign policy is a throwback to the days when the West imposed debt slavery on the third world. Just as Britain, France, Germany and Portugal did. In order to get his hands on food, raw materials and rare earth minerals, he has enticed dictators to borrow money they can’t repay that ends up in their Swiss bank accounts so he can seize their resources as repayment.
Dictators, unlike Puff’s magic dragon, do not live forever. The Chinese communist system may or may not fall but Xi’s time is limited.
The likelihood is a coup like the one in Moscow in 1964 that toppled the reformist and mercurial Nikita Khrushchev and replaced him with the more reliable and stolid Leonid Breshnev.
But, of course, without the fundamental reforms that are needed, there will be no economic progress and the new leadership will just go the way of the ancien regime.
Xi’s predicament can best be solved by waging war to unite and motivate his people and stave off his ouster.
To deter him, Trump must make clear that an invasion of Taiwan would quickly lead to a total embargo on all American trade with China, an existential threat to Beijng.
Trump called Xi’s bluff and now his back is against the wall — the great wall of China.
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