Coming Soon: Mandatory EVs

March 28, 2024

So far, all of the laws designed to encourage people to buy electric vehicles have been voluntary – incentivizing the purchase of EVs through tax credits and such. Currently, California is about to pass a law banning the sale of gasoline powered cars starting in 2035. With at least a dozen states legally obliged to follow California’s fuel standards, the decision now pending before the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will essentially amount to a national ban on gas powered cars.

Consumers will have no choice.

Automotive News reports that the current average sales price for an electric vehicle is $63,000 – roughly $15,000 more than the average price for all other new cars.

We need a new national Pro-choice movement – this one to protect our ability to drive the car we wish.

As the election of 2024 draws near, the issue of automotive choice is going to become bigger and bigger. The high price of electric vehicles, the inconvenience of fueling them, their limited range, and the potential safety problems, have limited EV sales on the American market. Despite tax incentives and green propaganda, EVs only account for 6% of the cars on the road in the US today. 

Already, auto makers like Toyota, GM, and Ford have cut back on EV production. Even Tesla reports a slump in sales.

But what consumers have rejected, California is now planning to require – that everybody have an EV.

This mandate could become crucial as an issue in the ’24 campaign. History has shown that voters strongly resist efforts to limit their choice of cars and are unhappy with having to buy of an electric vehicle.

And even as the momentum to electric vehicles has slowed in the marketplace, environmental advocates are switching their focus to hydrogen cars. Electric vehicles are likely to be obsolete even as they are being required.

Talk about an issue that can blow up in Biden’s face!

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The Young Male Backlash

March 17, 2024

The startling reversal of the Roe v. Wade decision by the Supreme Court has moved young women decisively against Trump and for Biden. In fact, of all the age groups in our country, young women is the only one that shows a gain for the Democrats.

But, now, it appears that there is a counter-trend going the other way: Young men are moving to Trump in big numbers. According to John McLaughlin’s polls, as of March 18th, Biden led among young women under forty by 21 points, but meanwhile Trump has widened his lead among under forty men. While Biden leads among women under forty by 55-34, Trump leads among young men by ten points — 51-41.

And abortion seems to have little to do with the male backlash.

The Survey Center on American Life found that while abortion was a critical priority for 61% of women under thirty, only 32%, half as many, young men agreed. Rather, the increasing attraction of young men to Trump is indicative of a nearly 20-point gender gap between Gen Z (under 25) men and women in identifying as feminist, according to the  Survey Center on American Life.  Only 43 percent of Gen Z men say they generally think of themselves as “feminist,” compared to 61 percent of Gen Z women. The gender gap is more pronounced among Generation Z than any other generation.

As the Survey Center on American Life notes: “The rising rejection of feminism among young men is almost certainly linked to growing feelings that American society has become more hostile to men. In 2019, less than one-third of young men reported that men experienced some or a lot of discrimination in American society. Only four years later, close to half (45 percent) of young men now believe men are facing gender-based discrimination. For some young men, feminism has morphed from a commitment to gender equality to an ideology aimed at punishing men. That leads to predictable results, like half of men agreeing with the statement, ‘These days society seems to punish men just for acting like men.’”

These numbers describe a major tectonic shift in gender and politics in America.  Young men are sharply dissenting from the “Me Too” rise in feminism.

Put another way, in 2020 young men were only slightly more likely to describe themselves as liberal than conservative, with a gap of just two percentage points. Young women, however, were much more likely to lean to the left than the right, with a gap of a massive 27 percentage points.

Ipsos, the survey research firm now reports that nearly one in four Gen Z men say they have experienced discrimination or were subject to mistreatment simply because they were men, a rate far greater than older men.

Another Ipsos survey found that 60% of Gen Z men agreed that “we have gone so far in promoting women’s equality that we are discriminating against men.”

It’s becoming clear that Gen Z men—a group that includes men aged 18 to 26—are charting their own distinctive course on gender, sexual orientation, and identity issues and that they are moving in the opposite direction from the course young women are taking.

This male backlash is helping Trump overcome the gender gap against him kindled by the reversal of Roe v Wade and may be pivotal in helping Republicans win in 2024.

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Biden: No Bounce From State Of The Union Speech

March 13, 2024

An analysis of six national polls fielded since Biden’s strident State Of the Union speech indicates that the speech totally failed to move Biden up.

Trump led Biden in four of the six polls conducted in the week before the speech by an average margin of 2.0 points. By contrast, Trump led Biden in all five polls conducted after the speech by an average margin of 3.3 points.

Here is the data:

PRE SPEECH POLLS

Wall St Journal          2-28      T+2

FoxNews                  2-28       T+2

NY Times                 2-28.      T+4

I & I/TIPP                 3-1        B+1

CBS News                 3-1        T+4

Emerson                   3-6        T+2

POST SPEECH POLLS

Rasmussen                3-7       T+8

Morning Consult.        3-10      T+1

Forbes/Harris S          3-10      T+4

Yahoo                       3-11      T+2

Economist/U Gov       3-12      T+2

Memo to Biden: Strident, partisan doesn’t work!

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Trump: Huge Gains Among Young; Needs To Do More Among Seniors

March 11, 2024

A comparison of the actual results of the 2020 election and the results of the NY Times/Siena Poll of February, 2024 indicates huge gains for Trump across the board, particularly among voters under 30.

But Biden still leads among these younger voters by 13 points, a huge drop from his 2020 lead of 43 points.

The only trouble spot for Trump is among voters over 65. They now back Biden by 6 points, a gain for Trump of 10 points but still leaves Biden in the lead.

Among the bulk of the voters, those aged 30-64, Trump has gained enormously, doubling his lead among those aged 45-64 from 9 to 18 points and moving ahead among voters aged 31-45 from a 20 point deficit in 2020 to a 7 point lead in 2024.

VOTE BY AGE

Trump leads Biden among voters aged 30-54.  But Biden is still ahead among voters under 30 and over 65, although his lead, particularly among the younger voters, has dropped sharply

Comparison of 2020 and 2024 Votes

Age 2020 vote        2024 polls

18-29 B 69  T 26     B 53  T 41

30-44 B 55. T 35     B41.  T 48

45-64 B 41 T 50.     B36.  T 54

65+    B 56.  T 40    B49.  T 43

Younger Voters (18-29)

The most dramatic shift between 2020 and the polling in 2024 is among voters under 30.

In 2020, Biden carried under 30 voters by 69-26, a wipe out margin of 43 points.  But in the ballot test in Feb. 2024. Biden only led among under 30 voters by 53-41, a much closer margin of only 8 points.

Early Middle Age voters (30-44)

Biden carried these voters by 20 points in 2020 but now trails among this cohort by 7 points (B 41, T 48).

Late Middle Age Voters (45-64)

Trump carried voters in this age group in 2020 by 9 points and has now doubled his lead to 18 points.)

Seniors (65+)

Only among voters over 65 has Biden been able to minimize his losses.  While Biden carried these voters by14 points in 2020, he still clings to a lead of 6 points

Summary

Trump needs to do better among senior citizens and continue his incredible surge among younger voters.

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Biden Is Not Delivering For His Base

March 11, 2024

The latest New York Times/Siena Poll clearly explains why Biden is falling behind Trump among young voters and Latinos and dropping behind his historic margins among blacks.

In the survey, taken in February, 2024, the pollsters asked voters whether Biden’s or Trump’s policies have “helped you personally?” And the results do more to explain Trump’s lead over Biden than any other measurement.

All respondents, said that Biden’s policies have hurt more than they have helped by 43-18. On the other hand they felt the Trump’s policies have helped more than they have hurt by 40-25.

Among the elements of Biden’s political base, this metric shows the president’s problem most clearly.

Hispanic voters overwhelmingly feel that Trump’s policies had lifted them up while Biden’s policies had let them down. By 15-36 Hispanics said that Biden’s policies have hurt more than they have helped. But, by 37 to 21 they report that Trump’s policies have helped more than they have hurt.

Among voters under 30 the sentiment is similar. Only 10% said Biden’s policies have helped them personally while 24% said they have hurt. For Trump, the numbers are reversed. 28% of voters under 30 felt that Trump’s ideas and policies have helped them personally while 22% said they have hurt.

Among blacks, the data is also in Trump’s favor but a bit less so.

African Americans report that the president’s policies have hurt more than they have helped by 17-21 while they say that Trump’s have helped more than they hurt by 26-24.

With negative margins like these, it is no wonder that Biden is failing to bring in his base to vote for him.

Trump’s campaign is scrambling to dull the negative impact of the reversal of Roe v Wade, but overall women believe that Trump’s policies — unlike Biden’s — have helped them more than they hurt.

Democrats hope that Trump’s historic problems with women voters will rescue them.  But women report that Biden has hurt more than he has helped by 18-40 while they say that Trump has helped more than he has hurt by 39-26.  No respite there for Biden.

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The Transformation Of America

March 7, 2024

Normally when one party gains ascendancy over the other or one candidate moves ahead in the race, he does so by nibbling away at the soft supporters of the other side, swinging the undecided voters and those who are only mildly committed to the opposition to his ranks.  But this is the exact opposite of what Donald Trump is doing to Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. Rather than nibble at swing voters they are taking gigantic bites out of the Democratic base of young voters, Hispanics, and African-Americans.

While the head-to-head numbers between Trump and Biden have shown a steady increase in Trump’s vote, this increase has largely come from the former Democratic core voters. Now that that the racism that used to cripple the Republicans has largely passed, we are dealing only with its artifact — the solid support it left in its wake among young people and minorities for the Democratic Party. Republicans are transforming the ethnicity of politics and making the former Democratic base into the new Republican base.

These shifts are not incremental but reflect a change in consensus among young and minority voters about the parties. Increasingly young people, Latinos, and blacks are moving toward a tipping point where they were are shifting wholesale to the Republican party.

Tipping points start gradually and gain momentum quickly. Leon Trotsky, the Russian revolutionary leader, put it well:  “change that once was impossible now becomes inevitable”.

Philosopher Herbert Marcuse amended the Marxist doctrine that change had to originate among the working class to posit that, these days, it has to begin in the schools and work its way up through the aging process to the opinion leaders.  He called that process “cultural Marxism.”

That is how the left took over our society.

But now it is going in reverse. Starting among the Gen Z voters — under 25  — Republicans are becoming the strong majority. Howe and Strauss, in their seminal book The Fourth Turning observe that older people are more likely now to be Democrat and that younger voters are increasingly Republican.

The abiding casualties of the Biden economy are convincing Gen Z voters that their interests now lie with our side. As Trump succeeds — after he wins — in solving many of these problems, the Republican hold on these young voters will spread and intensify.

Among blacks and minorities the impact of this shift in their political thinking will accelerate. The tipping point is now underway. As it becomes more acceptable and widespread for Black people and Hispanics to vote Republican it will catch on and spread in the community rapidly.

Polling in the current presidential race has reflected for example a tremendously rapid shift among Latinos. As recently as three or four months ago the Trump vote among Latinos was a palty 26%, itself an important uptick from the 32% he likely won in 2020. But in a few months Trump’s vote share has zoomed to the high 40s and he now beats Biden among Hispanics in the most recent NY Times/Sienna poll Harvard Harris poll, by 46 to 40.

Shifts on this order of magnitude are only possible when the consensus develops in an ethnic community and spreads by word of mouth anointing one candidate and one party over the other. Particularly with young voters the fact that Republicans are becoming the in crowd and Democrats the outsiders is especially significant.

Media guru David Garth once said that the “hardest thing to do in politics is to reverse direction.”  That’s not going to happen here. Not in this election anyway.

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State Of The Union Speech Is Biden’s Audition

March 6, 2024

Now that Trump has won the Republican nomination in resounding fashion with his smashing Super Tuesday victories, Joe Biden is facing increasingly panicked criticism from Democrats who dread a return of Donald Trump.

Thursday night’s State of the Union speech assumes the nature of an audition Biden must pass to continue his race for re-election.  Democrats worry that he cannot deliver a speech, even with a nearby teleprompter, without stumbling and screwing it up.

Thursday therefore poses a test Biden must pass to be the Democratic candidate for president.

Michelle Obama, the leading alternative to Biden, issued a bland statement yesterday saying that she is not a candidate this year.

But the statement shouldn’t convince anyone.  She did not deliver it in person but through her Director of Communications. We could not look into her eyes to judge her real intent.

We know that she, Hillary, Newsom and the rest are all for Biden until they are not.

But the plain math of Super Tuesday shows that any Democrat who is willing to bet his bottom dollar on Biden is a fool.

With degenerative mental and physical conditions,  he will only get worse.

So the State of the Union speech gives Biden a needed chance to assert that he can complete an English sentence.

His problem is only compounded by the fact that his audience won’t believe much of what he says even if he does manage to get it out.

Illegal immigration has become the major issue facing the country. Nobody is going to believe that Biden will take the kind of necessary steps to protect the border.

Nor are his likely celebratory comments about his success in taming inflation going to be greeted with any credibility.  With inflation still cited as the leading problem we face by one voter in three, his claims are only received credibly by his top — and top paid — economic advisors.

Biden has to pass his audition on Thursday to be able to quell the doubters and run credibly for president.

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Trump Shepherds His MAGA Flock From Purity To Maturity

March 1, 2024
Category: Articles

President Trump has accomplished a revolution of which few leaders are capable: He has led his MAGA followers from purity and defeat to maturity and power.

In his takeover of the GOP Senate delegation — signaled by his successful efforts to hasten Mitch McConnell’s retirement  — he has infused the ranks of his most zealous supporters with a new understanding of power and how to get it.

In 2022, the watchword in MAGA was purity.  Candidates were evaluated according to their scores on litmus tests of ideological fidelity.  Wary of Republicans who go to Washington, grow a horn, and turn RINO, GOP voters and leaders embraced the likes of Pennsylvania’s  Dr. Oz and Georgia’s Hershel Walker —ideologically pure but politically inexperienced and inept. 

Now there is a new team in town — the tandem between Montana Senator Steve Daines and President Trump.

Daines, the new chairman of the National Republican Senatorial  Committee, Steve Daines, has brought a new wisdom and acuity to the job of running the Republican campaign for the Senate in 2024.

The new watchword is: electability. Sacrificial lambs need not apply.

Harking back to the bare knuckle tactics of legislative leaders like Sam Rayburn and Lyndon Johnson, Daines has promoted winners and told losers to, well, get lost.

But the weapon behind Daines’ leadership is Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Trump is so dominant and popular with the MAGA base that his word, alone, can make or break candidates. But in 2022 Trump often bestowed his endorsement on candidates, with whom he empathized, but who couldn’t win.

Senator Daines is the perfect compliment to Donald Trump.  They both have been burned by unelectable candidates and share a new pragmatic determination to endorse winners.

In state after state, the duo are working together with Daines winnowing the field and  while Trump enforces discipline with his endorsement.

The Montana Senate race exemplifies how these two lions hunt together.  Republicans found a superstar candidate in Tim Sheehy, a purple heart, bronze star combat veteran, but his path to the nomination against John Tester, long time Democratic senator, was blocked by congressman Matt Rosendale the at-large congressman for Montana.

Rosendale had taken on Tester in 2018, losing by six points even though Trump had carried Montana by twenty points.

Daines realized that he needed to sweep Rosendale aside, deployed the big man — Donald Trump — to do so in dramatic fashion. Hours after Rosendale announced his Senate candidacy Trump swooped in and endorsed Sheehy calling him an “American hero”.  Rather than criticize Rosendale, Trump publicly urged him to run again for Congress instead saying “I also respect Matt Rosendale, and was very happy to Endorse him in the past – and will Endorse him again in the future should he decide to change course and run for his Congressional Seat.”

Oops! Rosendale withdrew from the Senate race, embraced Trump’s hint, and declared his candidacy for re-election for Congress. Now Sheehy has every prospect of beating Tester.

In Arizona, Republicans were reluctant to rally in support of their defeated 2022 governor candidate Kari Lake. But Daines made clear that the party was backing Lake and, using Trump’s endorsement as a cudgel, forced Republican Blake Masters who was also considering running, to follow Rosendale’s path and run instead for Congress.

In Nevada too, Daines is clearing the GOP field to make way for Sam Brown, a former Army captain whose face was shredded by an Iraqi roadside bomb. Brown, initially reluctant to back Trump, came around to back the former president in Nevada’s primary.

But Daines’ magical performance was inducing Marylands’ two- term RINO governor, Larry Hogan to run for Senate in one of the bluest states in the union. Despite his opposition to  Donald Trump —Hogan once even ran (briefly) against Trump for president — Hogan decided to run for an open seat in Maryland.  Now the GOP’s likely candidate — Hogan — holds a ten point lead in the general election. A steal for
Senate Republicans.

The Trump/Daines combo is the new game in town and it gives every promise of delivering a Senate majority to President Trump.

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The Rise Of Global-Skepticism In International Relations

March 1, 2024
Category: Articles

In the fast-moving American political scene, a new movement is bursting onto center stage: Global skepticism. It’s not isolationism but it’s not globalism either.  

It is born of a healthy caution about total involvement in foreign wars.  Spawned in the ranks of MAGA, it resists the endless commitment of American lives we saw in Vietnam and Iraq or of our money that is evident in Ukraine.

Very recent polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows a growing trend toward reluctance to make heavy commitments in foreign policy. In their annual studies, the Council tracks American public opinion about global affairs. 

Ivo Daalder, the former US ambassador to NATO under Obama says the Council’s annual polls are discovering two important trends: “One change,” he says, “is that Republicans have increasingly—since about 2016—become more skeptical about the United States playing an active role in world affairs and more favorable for it staying out of world affairs. This is the question we’ve been asking for 50 years.”

But, he stresses “something bigger happened in the last survey from late last year, which is that for the first time since we asked that question, more Republicans wanted to stay out of world affairs than play an active role in world affairs. That has never happened before. 

There is this secular change over the last decade or so, where Republicans are becoming more isolationist vis-à-vis Democrats. And then all of a sudden, this major shift in the party on the question of whether to stay involved or not. And that major shift can really be explained by one part of the Republican Party.”

Ambassador Daalder says that it is pro-Trump MAGA Republicans leading the change.  In his survey, he divided Republicans into those who had a very favorable opinion of Trump vs. those Republicans who either had unfavorable or only a somewhat favorable opinion of him. 

He found that Global-skepticism runs deep among MAGA Republicans. Only 40 percent of pro-Trump Republicans want the US to “play an active part in world affairs” while 59 percent prefer that we “stay out of world affairs and focus on domestic issues instead.”

Isolationism — the extreme form of Global-skepticism — is a potent force in our political history.  It has never been defeated in a general election.  It fell into disrepute after Pearl Harbor and during Stalin’s conquest of Eastern Europe.

The Republican Party split to its core in 1952 when internationalists, led by Eisenhower, defeated Ohio Senator Robert Taft at the national Republican convention and led the US into the UN and NATO. But now, clothed in MAGA garb, the global-skeptics are increasingly dominating the modern Republican Party.

They are being driven by doubts about the wisdom of emptying our national treasury and denuding our stockpiles of weapons to help Ukraine.  But the movement has deeper roots that tap into an anti-globalist America First world view.  

Apart from Ukraine, skepticism about global climate change is driving the new political movement.  72% of Trump Republicans say the US is paying “too much attention to climate change while 16% feel we are paying too little heed to the issue and 12% feel that we have the balance about right.

But, on the other hand,  the survey finds a strong willingness — indeed an eagerness – – among Trump Republicans to assume an active role in policing our border, competing with China, and stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

91% of Trump Republicans say we are not paying enough attention to problems on our southern border while 61% felt we were not paying enough attention to Iran’s nuclear program and 64% felt we are not sufficiently focused on the competition with China.            

Since the globo-skeptic movement has gathered momentum among the outsiders that are propelling MAGA into the White House, it will be hard to thwart it although the world’s globalists will doubtless try.

Climate change seems to be the gateway that leads to global-skepticism.  MAGA Republicans rightly refuse to orient our entire economy and energy industry around the single issue of climate change.

Europeans are scared to death of the new globo-skepticism.  American distrust of European cafe society globalism runs deep and is exacerbated by the left’s dogmatic and rigid positions on environmental issues.

As Trump runs for president, he will add recruits to MAGA and will elaborate his views on global issues. Global-skepticism is a fast growing movement in the United States and Donald Trump is bringing it to the fore.

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Biden Order Enables Border Human Trafficking

February 23, 2024
Category: Articles

Citing the privacy concerns of illegal immigrants apprehended at the southern border, the Biden administration has terminated a Trump administration policy that helped identify smugglers and human traffickers.

Cartels have been smuggling minor children and trafficked women across the border claiming that the smugglers are their parents.

To fight this fraud, Trump required DNA swabbing of the cheeks of children and adults who claim to be a family unit to determine if they really are or just pretending to be families traveling together as a pretext to cover up human trafficking.

Between 2015 and 2019, the number of supposed family units apprehended at the border rose twelve fold from 39,900 to 473,700.

The Trump-era DNA testing revealed that a third of the family units were fraudulent and that there was no biological relationship between the smugglers and the women and children they were trafficking.

The use of families as cover for smuggling dates to a 2015 federal court ruling that ICE could only hold minors in custody for 20 days. After that ruling, it became commonplace for smugglers to claim to be family members to cross the border.

Biden terminated the cheek swab program in 2021 when it did not renew it’s contract with the firm conducting the DNA testing.

Open border advocates had objected to the program claiming that the tests, which took an average of 90 minutes, were “invasive” and violated “privacy rights.”

This misguided reversal of a Trump policy opened the border to massive trafficking of women and children and its time to lock the door again.

Now.

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