In the Morning Consult/Bloomberg News Poll of October 5-10 — with more than 5,000 interviews — Trump has pulled ahead of Biden in five of six swing states and tied in the sixth, Michigan. Only in Nevada does Biden hang on by only three points.
The survey shows Trump leads in:
• Georgia: Trump 48% (+5); Biden 43%
• Arizona: Trump 47% (+4); Biden 43%
• Wisconsin: Trump 46% (+2); Biden 44%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 46% (+1); Biden 45%
• North Carolina: Trump 47% (+4); Biden 43%
• Michigan: Trump 44% (=) Biden 44%
• Nevada: Biden 46% (+3); Trump 43%
With our attention focused on Trump’s trials, the Arab-Israeli war, and the U.S. House Speaker vote, Trump has achieved a decisive lead in these key states.
1. Global instability — two wars at once — stands in such sharp contrast to the absence of war under Trump that he has become, in effect, the peace candidate.
2. Meanwhile, the perception that Biden has been coddling and funding Iran is rising even as Tehran shows its new power through the Hamas attacks on Israel.
3. Mortgage interest rates have soared up to eight percent, triggering inflation across the board, particularly among those with adjustable rate mortgages.
4. Biden’s seemingly decline in his mental acuity has become a daily feature of his presidency and becomes increasingly too hard to ignore.
5. Trump has used the UAW strike to highlight the issue of “car choice” in opposition to electric vehicle mandates.
6. Trump has stayed away from the speaker fight in the U.S. House and has not suffered in the process.
7. Trump’s court cases daily present evidence of prosecutorial persecution that is alienating voters.
8. Trump has made enormous progress among black and Hispanic voters, now getting a quarter of Blacks, and more than a third of Latinos,
9. Abortion has faded from the front pages and, while it may come back as an issue, is secondary at the moment.
10. The lack of serious opposition to Trump in the Republican primaries has coalesced his support in his own party.
With the election just about a year away, all this could change, but Trump’s lead has settled into a pattern nationally.
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