Many political campaigns run against the wrong candidate. The opportunity to pick on a vulnerable target is so tempting that they are lured into attacking someone who isn’t running. In 1992, the Republicans unleashed their convention barrage at Hillary and left Bill unscathed. In 1996, Dole still ran against Clinton the liberal and ignored the changes in his political positioning. Campaigns go after the flaming red cape, so glittering a target, and leave the matador alone.

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Published in The New York Post on August 28, 2008.

If Barack Obama wants to get a serious bounce in the polls from his speech tonight, the gifted speaker should eat some humble pie and copy dull old Al Gore.

At the 2000 Democratic Convention, Gore gave one of the best acceptance speeches in recent history. And by “best” we mean a 17-point bounce in the polls.

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Published on TheHill.com on August 27, 2008

Barack Obama would do well to remember the lines from Hamlet: “Madness in great ones must not unwatched go.” Bill Clinton’s strategy is to take refuge in his carefully cultivated reputation for being undisciplined and borderline-eccentric to drop bombs on Obama in such a way that Hillary can escape blame.

Bill and Hillary do not want Obama to win. If he does move to the White House, Hillary will be unable to run for president until 2016 (Obama would run again in 2012), by which time she will be closing in on 70 years of age. But Hillary cannot afford to be seen dumping on Obama.

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Published in The New York Post on August 26, 2008.

DENVER

‘I love this country”: Those are the magic words that Michelle Obama said at the Democratic National Convention last night.

They’re the words we’ve wanted to hear from her ever since we saw her say that she was proud of her country “for the first time in my adult life” now that her husband was winning primaries en route to the White House.

Did she buy into the American dream? Was she part of our national aspiration - or part of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s twisted view of us? Those were the questions we wanted answered. Last night, she answered - loud and clear.

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Everybody agrees that when Barack Obama finishes his historic outdoor acceptance speech on Thursday night and the 75,000 adoring fans in attendance finally quiet down, he will bounce up in the polls, likely to as much as a 10-point lead or even more.

Obama is at his best when delivering a telepromptered speech to a large and enthusiastic crowd. What would be a major task for some is just batting practice for this skilled orator. But how long will his bounce last?

To make it stay and not let McCain dissipate it with the Republican convention that will follow hard on the heels of the Democratic gathering, Obama needs to give a State of the Union speech, not a campaign speech, to his national television audience.

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Published in The New York Post on August 24, 2008.

It doesn’t take a political genius to realize that Barack Obama needed to nominate a woman for vice president.

Obama’s key problem is that there is no gender gap. In the most recent Zogby poll, he runs only two points better among women than among men. A Democrat should be running 10 to 15 points better among women.

If Obama is to have a hope of winning, he needs to improve his performance among female voters. A Fox News poll indicated that only about half of those who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries are voting for Obama and that fully one in five plans to support John McCain.

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In following a presidential race, the most important way to understand what is happening is to follow voter responses to open ended questions. Those are questions which ask “What do you like the most about Barack Obama?” and “What do you like the least about Barack Obama.” These questions, which let voters tell pollsters what they think in their own words, offer the best way to figure out what is really going on.

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