Everything depends on tomorrow’s voter turnout. In swing states, last night’s polling by Trafalgar Research indicates that Trump is nursing leads of 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Pennsylvania. That is good news if they show up. The Trafalgar Poll indicates that 32% of Michigan and 45% of Pennsylvania voters plan to cast their ballots on Election Day.
These folks are the key to a Trump victory because the early voting has gone largely to Biden. In Pennsylvania, 38% have voted by mail and they have gone Democrat by a lopsided margin of 75-21. Another 13% voted in person early and they broke even, Trafalgar says, by 48-48. So to carry the Keystone State, Trump needs to get the 45% that have waited until tomorrow to vote. Trafalgar says that they are planning to vote for the president by 71-23, offsetting the Biden sweep of mail votes. If they show up.
Michigan tells a similar story. As per Trafalgar, 49% voted by mail and went for Biden by 68-29. Another 15% voted in person early and they backed Trump by 52-41. The president’s fate is in the hands of the 32% who plan to vote tomorrow and say they will support Trump by 80-15.
If the election day turnout is heavy, Trump should sweep the battleground states, likely carrying not only Pennsylvania and Michigan but also New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Nevada. He might even carry Minnesota. If the predictions in the reliable polls hold true, he could beat Biden in the electoral college by 323-215, nineteen more votes than he won in 2016.
The popular vote is likely to be close (as opposed to the 2.6% by which Hillary won it) and may even go to Trump.
Among other interesting stats in the Trafalgar Polls:
• Blacks continue to switch to Trump. 23% of Michigan African-Americans say they plan to vote for the president.
• The gender gap is vanishing as mothers want schools and businesses to reopen. Michigan men back Trump, as expected by 3 points. But, shattering precedent, women also do by 2.1%.
There is no question that Biden has faded in the stretch. The reliable Des Moines Register poll had him tied with Trump in Iowa in September but now trailing the president by seven points. Almost every other survey shows Trump closing strong, even those who erroneously still have Biden ahead.
Erroneously? These media polls are obviously wrong (as we will see tomorrow). But is it an error due to stupidity or malice? Are these polls rigged so as to suppress the Trump vote, turning it off because of the perception that Biden has the race locked up? With upwards of two-thirds of the Biden vote already cast, the vast majority of voters who will stay home tomorrow would have backed Trump.
If the media polls turn out to have been wrong, they should be investigated to see if they erred or deliberately cooked their polls to deceive us.
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