What Happens If Biden Drops Out?
With…
• Joe Biden 5 points behind Trump in McLaughlin’s latest poll and…
• With Trump at 27% of the black vote (he won 12% in 2020) and…
• With Trump winning 39% of Latinos (he won only 27% in 2020) and…
• With Trump leading among Gen Z (18-24 years old voters, having lost them by double digits in 2020)…
It’s time to ask: What will happen if Biden pulls out?
Trump will still win because the new Democratic candidate — be it Gavin Newsom or even Michele Obama or Hillary Clinton — will have to move so far to the left to win the Democratic nomination that they will marginalize themselves in the general election.
Any new Democratic entrant will have to pass a litmus test to secure the nomination that will make them anathema in the general.
He or she will have to:
• Endorse reparations for slavery.
• Back gender change surgery for adolescents where the school is complicit in keeping parents in the dark.
• Support teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools.
• Oppose voucher programs for public schools.
• Pledge to reverse the Supreme Court decision banning affirmative action.
• Support no cash bail and oppose mandatory minimum sentences.
• Defend Biden’s open border policies.
• Support letting men-turned-women participate in competitive sports against real women.
Embracing even two or three of these positions will make the candidate unelectable in November, but failing to toe the line will doom him or her to defeat in the Democratic primary.
Even if Michele Obama were to run, she would find it impossible to avoid this conundrum.
It is a lot harder for an African-American Democrat to win now than it was in 2008 or 2012. The Party has moved so far to the left on race and gender issues that the gulf between the opinions of Democratic primary voters and general election swing voters has widened so far that it cannot be bridged.
These issue challenges for would-be Biden replacements do not even reach the core issues of explaining away Biden’s economic policies or his inflation and border enforcement.
Indeed, most polls report that Democratic primary voters are a lot less likely to cite the economy, inflation, immigration, or crime as major issues facing America when the pollsters do not suggest these responses.
Rather Democratic primary voters are more likely to cite climate change, abortion, race relations, and gun violence as the key issues.
Appealing to Democratic primary voters at the same time as generating general election support from swing voters is an acrobatic exercise well beyond the capacity of any likely Democratic replacement for Biden.
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