The latest ABC poll puts Republicans at a ten point generic advantage in congressional races, four points higher than ever before. (In 2010, the GOP had a six point edge that led to a 62 seat gain in the election).
How many seats will the GOP gain with a 51-41 advantage? Nobody knows. Never happened before.
But the likelihood of a sweep of this magnitude raises a new prospect for the Democrats: The extinction of the white Democrat.
If a six point generic ballot edge led to a 62 seat gain, could a ten point bulge trigger an even greater gain of 70-90 seats?
And if it does, who will lose their seats?
There are now 220 Dems in Congress, about a hundred of whom are black or Latino. If we assume that, even with that kind of a landslide, they will lose very few if any black members, the election might result in massive casualties among white Democratic Congressmen.
Latinos Dems will likely lose several seats as Hispanics warm to the Republican Party, but the bulk of the gain the ABC poll likely implies might happen, will come mainly at the expense of the white Democrat.
With about 120 white Democratic Congressmen, could we see the defeat of more than half of them?
What would this mean?
It would make the Democratic Party into a black party for decades to come. And it would mean the obliteration of an entire generation of young, white Democrats, leaving the Party with only a bench of minority candidates.
Such may be the legacy of the disaster of Joe Biden.
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