In a McLaughlin & Associates survey of 1,000 likely voters, taken on July 25th, 2023, ten percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 have now switched and would vote for Trump today.
By contrast, only two percent of those who voted for Trump would now switch and back Biden instead.
The eight-point differential between those who switch to Trump and those who switch to Biden accounts for all of Trump’s margin over Biden in the poll.
Trump also wins decisively among voters who have not been to college, winning them by 57-37 while tying Biden among four-year college graduates with 46% for each.
In all, McLaughlin’s survey reveals that while 93% of Republicans vote for Trump, only 81% of Democrats plan to vote for Biden. This gap in party loyalty is especially surprising because Trump is not yet the Republican nominee.
Trump’s decisive lead in crossover votes reflects his record as president compared to Biden’s.
Trump’s appeal transcends party lines. Biden’s doesn’t.
Trump’s crossover appeal is rooted in younger vote who, regardless of party or ideology, find that they cannot begin their lives in the current economy. They can’t marry, move out of Mom’s basement, buy a house or even a car. For them, a bad economy is not an inconvenience, it is a disability.
For all the narrowness of Trump’s margin over Biden (4 points), it is hard to see how the Democrat might close the gap. His record as president is now set in history as an all-time failure and whatever hope he had that Trump’s vote would crater under the impact of four indictments now is clearly illusory.
Trump is on the road to victory.
Biden is on track to oblivion.
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