Trump: Huge Gains Among Young; Needs To Do More Among Seniors

By Dick Morris on March 11, 2024

A comparison of the actual results of the 2020 election and the results of the NY Times/Siena Poll of February, 2024 indicates huge gains for Trump across the board, particularly among voters under 30.

But Biden still leads among these younger voters by 13 points, a huge drop from his 2020 lead of 43 points.

The only trouble spot for Trump is among voters over 65. They now back Biden by 6 points, a gain for Trump of 10 points but still leaves Biden in the lead.

Among the bulk of the voters, those aged 30-64, Trump has gained enormously, doubling his lead among those aged 45-64 from 9 to 18 points and moving ahead among voters aged 31-45 from a 20 point deficit in 2020 to a 7 point lead in 2024.


Trump leads Biden among voters aged 30-54.  But Biden is still ahead among voters under 30 and over 65, although his lead, particularly among the younger voters, has dropped sharply

Comparison of 2020 and 2024 Votes

Age 2020 vote        2024 polls

18-29 B 69  T 26     B 53  T 41

30-44 B 55. T 35     B41.  T 48

45-64 B 41 T 50.     B36.  T 54

65+    B 56.  T 40    B49.  T 43

Younger Voters (18-29)

The most dramatic shift between 2020 and the polling in 2024 is among voters under 30.

In 2020, Biden carried under 30 voters by 69-26, a wipe out margin of 43 points.  But in the ballot test in Feb. 2024. Biden only led among under 30 voters by 53-41, a much closer margin of only 8 points.

Early Middle Age voters (30-44)

Biden carried these voters by 20 points in 2020 but now trails among this cohort by 7 points (B 41, T 48).

Late Middle Age Voters (45-64)

Trump carried voters in this age group in 2020 by 9 points and has now doubled his lead to 18 points.)

Seniors (65+)

Only among voters over 65 has Biden been able to minimize his losses.  While Biden carried these voters by14 points in 2020, he still clings to a lead of 6 points


Trump needs to do better among senior citizens and continue his incredible surge among younger voters.

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