THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE THAT HASN’T YET STARTED
In following a presidential race, the most important way to understand what is happening is to follow voter responses to open ended questions. Those are questions which ask “What do you like the most about Barack Obama?” and “What do you like the least about Barack Obama.” These questions, which let voters tell pollsters what they think in their own words, offer the best way to figure out what is really going on.
Fortunately, the Fox News tracking poll for the election has now included these questions and the results offer an excellent insight into the current state of the race. (Click here to read about the poll!) Oddly for a race that has been going on for two years and holds the nation rapt in attention, the contest is still in a very, very primitive phase. Voters’ level of awareness of the issues or of the candidates is quite limited. Neither campaign has done much to project its issues or its message and the attacks on one another, which increasingly dominates the dialogue and shows little resonance among most voters.
Overwhelmingly, the thing voters like the most about Obama is that he is new, a fresh face, is for change, intelligent, inspiring, a good speaker, outspoken, and charismatic. 57% of all voters use one of these phrases to describe him, including 48% of Republicans and 55% of Independents. But only 13% of all voters cite any specific position of Obama’s, including his signature opposition to the war in Iraq. Only 2% mentioned the war in citing what they liked about Obama and only 1% cited the economy and jobs. So Obama is still a personality running for office and the voters have yet to identify him with any policy or proposal. And the one identification he used to have – opposition to the war – has faded. But Obama has vast potential appeal. Even though the Fox News poll gave him only a three point lead over McCain, four voters in five cite something they like about Obama in open-ended questions (including 66% of Republicans and 78% of Independents).
Opposition to Obama is also centered on fears of his youth, inexperience and lack of qualifications. 31% of all voters, 33% of Independents, and 29% of Democrats cited this concern in open ended questions. But just as Obama’s positive ratings do not include much in the way of specific mentions of his issue positions…his negatives don’t either. Only 19% of all voters said they disliked his liberalism, connection with Rev Wright, radicalism, religious views, elitism or even said they disagreed with him about anything. Another 8% disliked his flip flops on issues. But the potential for Obama to fall apart is also enormous. 78% of all voters, including two-thirds of all Democrats and four-fifths of all independents cited something about Obama that they did not like.
So everybody basically agrees that Obama is a new fresh face, who advocates change but is too inexperienced, and lacks some or all of the qualifications needed for the job. The question of which part of this statement outweighs the other is the issue on which the election hinges.
But just as Obama has not succeeded in identifying himself with any specific issue, idea or proposal, (and voters might be asking, as they did of Gary Hart, “where’s the beef?), McCain and the Republicans have failed to link him to extreme liberalism, radicalism, Rev Wright or any of the identifications they have been trying to pin on the Democrat. Both campaigns have almost totally failed to move past square one on Obama.
For McCain, it’s pretty much the same story. 33% of all voters see him as experienced and qualified (including 26% of Democrats and 34% of Independents). 10% like his military record, 7% praise his honesty and 9% say they approve of how he would handle foreign policy. But McCain’s negatives are the flip side of his positives. 24% of all voters, 26% of Republicans and 20% of Independents say he is too old. And another 23% feel he is too conservative, too close to Bush or too supportive of the war and 4% criticize his flip flops.
So Americans of all parties have reached a consensus that Obama is young, charismatic, intelligent, articulate, and in favor of change but also that he is too inexperienced, possibly too liberal and less qualified than they would like. And, they also have come to a common agreement, cutting across party lines, that McCain is experienced, able, an heroic veteran and honest, but also that he is too old, possibly too conservative and perhaps too pro-war.
Just as 80% of all voters find something to praise in Obama and 78% find something to criticize, so 80% have something good to say about McCain and 82% have some criticism to make. This broad agreement on the pros and cons of each candidate and the willingness of even their partisans to consider their negatives and of their enemies to concede their positive’s is highly unusual and underscores why the race is so close. But it also suggests that it is very volatile. Either campaign can paint the other with issue negatives if they start going about it effectively.
It is a glaring omission that only 1% cites Obama’s tax positions as a negative and that nobody mentioned his opposition to offshore oil drilling. Likewise, how odd that only 15% cited specifically McCain’s support for the war and his connection with Bush as a negative. On the other hand, neither Obama’s health care nor McCain’s energy proposals have registered with the voters, and few can name any specific issue position for either man of which they approve. For a campaign that has been going on for two years, how odd that the voters’ opinions of the candidates are still so unformed and general.
Click here to view the full results of the FOX News Poll!