By Dick Morris
The polls that have been published in the newspapers in Guatemala are part of an effort by the forces of corruption and their allies in the media to mislead the people of Guatemala. Juan Gutierrez, who represents the best chance of change and the strongest possibility of breaking their monopoly, is a real threat to them. So their published polls reduce his vote share to convince people that a vote for Gutierrez is a wasted vote.
But it is just not true.
I did the polling for President Clinton during his time in the White House and during his time as Governor of Arkansas. My associate, Rafael Gimenez, served as the chief polling expert for President Felipe Calderon of Mexico. Between us, we are among the top and most accurate polling firms in the world.
We have conducted five surveys each with a sample size of more than 1,200 likely voters from all parts of Guatemala. These statistically valid samples tell us how the election would turn out within two percentage points. Indeed, Rafael polled for Juan Gutierrez in 2011 and accurately predicted the vote share of every single candidate. Back then, as now, the newspaper and media polls were totally inaccurate.
Click on the image to see the results of our last three polls:
As you can see from the data above, Juan Gutierrez is in third place behind Baldizon and Torres. He is slightly ahead of Morales and far ahead of Zury Rios, Canella and the other candidates.
The key question in this election is whether Gutierrez or Torres makes the second round against Baldizon. Juan is the only candidate with a chance to beat him.
Those are the facts. And the media wants to mislead you into voting for one of the other candidates not Gutierrez in the hopes that you will waste your vote. Do not fall for their tricks.