Saturday: Hillary’s Test With Latinos

By Dick Morris on February 18, 2016

On Saturday, while Republicans vote in South Carolina, Nevada Democrats will flock to the caucuses to choose their convention delegates. Nevada’s population is 27% Hispanic, the fifth largest ratio in the country.

Even as early polls seem to suggest that Hillary is winning the black vote in South Carolina, the surveys suggest that she is not doing nearly as well among Nevada’s Latinos. Overall, she manages no better than a tie in Nevada, indicating that there is no block Hispanic vote for Hillary.

Hillary likely cannot win without the Latino vote. Hispanics are concentrated in five major states: California (where they are 38% of population), Texas (38%), Florida (23%), and NY (18%). Likely, Latinos will actually end up casting even a higher percentage of the vote in Democratic Party primaries.

If Latinos show a willingness to vote for Bernie Sanders, it could doom Hillary’s chances in these vote-rich states.

The black vote is more evenly spread across the country and, among the Super Tuesday states, is only the determining factor in Alabama (60 delegates), Georgia (117), and Virginia (109). But Texas, California, Florida, and New York cast, among them, about a quarter of the Democratic convention delegates, a greater haul by far.

And, if Hillary is on shaky ground appealing to Latino voters in the primary, imagine how hard it will be for her to win them in the November election where she may face a Republican opponent named Rubio or Cruz.


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