Ask any married man: “Are you going to be married to the same woman next year?” and if the man says he’s undecided, that does not say great things about the marriage.
Similarly, when voters are asked if they want the same governor or Senator as they have now and they say they are undecided, that usually indicates that they have decided to vote against him but don’t know enough about his opponent yet.
Almost all the polls on the key races for Senator or Governor this year are within two- or three-point margins with both the incumbent and the challenger under 50% of the vote. With voters so sour on the state of the country and the Biden Administration in such disrepute, there is every likelihood that the challengers will go on to beat their Democratic opponents on Election Day.
In Pennsylvania (Oz), Ohio (Vance), Wisconsin (Johnson), and North Carolina (Budd), the Republican is likely to win. But all these victories are only enough to keep the 50-50 Senate and Democratic control.
But Republicans, following the logic of the psychology of the undecided voter, are also likely to win Senate races in Georgia (Walker), Nevada (Laxalt), Arizona (Masters) and New Hampshire (Bolduc), giving the party a 54-46 margin in the Senate.
And in Washington State (Smiley), Connecticut (Levy) and Colorado (O’Dea) the
Republicans are close enough and the Democrats far enough under 50, that a surprise victory is plausible.
In governor’s races, the logic of the undecided voter may pave the way for Republican victories in New York (Zeldin), Michigan (Dixon), Arizona (Lake), and Wisconsin (Michaels).
For the GOP happy days are here again!
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