The recent New York Times/Sienna College Poll makes it clear beyond doubt that Donald Trump is headed for a landslide defeat of Joe Biden.
Confirming the data in earlier polls, Biden is on track to lose these states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada. Only Wisconsin, where Biden is only two points ahead, breaks Trump’s bid to sweep the table clean.
Democrats need to make a move.
Their strategy of beating Trump in the courts is not working, the economy is not improving, inflation is not dropping, and the Mideast war is worsening.
These storm clouds look to last.
So here’s their likely plan — a theory I helped concoct with John McLaughlin.
Biden piles up delegates and pulls a surprise withdrawal at the Democratic Convention.
So his negatives become irrelevant and a fresh Democrat emerges to fight in November.
He or she does not need to run the gauntlet of Democratic primaries and wouldn’t have to cotton to the party’s suicidal progressive wing by backing gender change surgery without parental notification, men participating in women’s sports, reparations for slavery or a host of crazy things the left embraces.
He can win the nomination without taking positions that will doom him in the general election.
The candidate could be one of the usual suspects — Newsom, Sanders, Buttigieg, or Warren, or maybe Michele Obama or Hillary.
So what can go wrong with the probable Biden plan?
Dean Phillips for one.
The Minnesota Democratic Congressman could upend the plan by winning or doing well in the first-in-the nation New Hampshire primary.
Biden, stupidly, will not be on the ballot. He removed himself to protest the legislature’s decision to stay first in the nation, frustrating Biden’s plan to put South Carolina ahead of it.
With Phillips on the ballot, and Biden having to depend on write-in votes, we may face a rerun of 1968 when Lyndon Johnson depended on write-ins and did not appear on the New Hampshire ballot, opening the way for another Minnesotan, Eugene McCarthy, to draw 42% of the vote, a stunning performance that led to Johnson’s withdrawal.
Phillips has a brilliant campaign message.
He says the only difference between he and Biden is age and physical condition.
He states the obvious truth — that only he is likely to be able to finish a second term.
Such an appeal — loving Biden while opposing him — is likely to draw lots of votes.
And, as it becomes increasingly clear that Trump would defeat Biden, the argument for the president’s renomination gets shaky indeed.
As Democratic doubts about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump rise, Democrats will get nervous and cast about for other options.
But no new candidate can get in over the next few weeks as filing deadlines approach.
Biden can’t even hint that he might withdraw at the conventions, releasing his delegates.
Such a course would be suicidal — “vote for me but I’ll withdraw and nominate someone else.”
If Biden can develop attacks on Phillips, he might escape, but the House Democrats are sufficiently monolithic that they all vote the same and its unlikely that Biden can catch Phillips committing apostasy by failing to toe the party line.
In the beginning, Phillips won’t be able to raise any money, but he doesn’t need to, running against Biden. The president’s failure to defeat Trump in the polls will demonstrate sufficiently that the party needs a new candidate and Phillips is as good as anyone to fill the void.
So, it will be a surprise Biden withdrawal at the last minute.
And then, anything can go wrong:
• Biden might not win a majority of the delegates,
• His nod may not be enough to designate a fill in.
• Phillips, fresh from primary upsets, may enter the race and generate serious support, like Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy did.
In the meantime, Trump will continue to wage his brilliant campaign of new, important, and attractive ideas, as well as compelling rally speeches.
As President Trump said to me in closing our last phone call, “See you in the White House.”
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