Young voters, a key element in the Democratic coalition, are deserting the Democratic Party in droves. Coupled with the increasing defection of Hispanics, the Democratic Party label is battered and bleeding.
A John Jordan survey of May 25-30, 2022 conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, shows that President Trump has completely erased his deficit among young voters. The Jordan-McLaughlin survey, examined political attitudes among two generations: Generation Z (aged 18-30) and Millennial (aged 30-41).
In 2020, Biden beat Trump among Gen Z by a five point margin: Biden: 43 and Trump: 38. But, if the election were today, they would flip and back Trump by 4 points. Trump: 52, Biden: 48. Gen Z voters are now part of the Republican base!
The Millennials, the sons and daughters of the 60s activist Boomer generation are more liberal than their younger Gen Z peers. But, they too are deserting Biden.
While Biden carried Millennials in 2020 by a whopping twenty points, his lead would be cut in half — to ten points — if the election were today.
VOTER BEHAVIOR AMONG GEN Z AND MILLENNIALS
|2020 Vote||Vote Now|
Why Are Young Voters Switching? Inflation and the Economy.
Economics and rising prices are the only reasons younger voters are leaving Biden. Other issues don’t matter much.
MAJOR ISSUES EFFECTING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY AMONG GEN Z AND MILLENNIALS
|Net Inflation & Economy||50||55|
|Cost of Living||3||5|
|Guns (After Uvalde)||1||1|
How incredible that key national concerns like health care, education, crime, race relations, and guns should rank so low or fail to rank at all!
Struggling to launch their households and careers, Gen Z and Millennial voters are intently — and exclusively — focused on personal financial problems.
And, on this issue, Biden’s ratings are terrible among Gen Z voters and only marginal among Millennials
COMPARISON OF BIDEN AND TRUMP ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
|Who Would Do The Better Job At:||Gen Z||Millennials|
|Fighting Inflation||Biden = 39|
Trump = 59
|Biden = 50
Trump = 50
|Managing Economy||Biden = 48|
Trump = 58
|Biden = 51
Trump = 49
Two key facts emerge:
1. The economy, making a living, the cost of living, gas prices, inflation, and the economy are not only the most important issues to these young voters. They are the only issue. Democrats can try to win by riding the issue du jour featured in the media to drown out the economic issues. But it is a futile hope as long as Republicans keep talking about the economic questions.
Democrats want to talk about the Court decisions on abortion, the Uvalde student massacre, the war in Ukraine, not that these are winning issues, but they are distractions from the economy. Republicans must be insistent at dragging the discussion back to the economy. And they will find it easy as people shop or buy gas.
2. Nothing else really matters. Younger voters are more liberal on cultural issues so we must talk about the economy and nothing but.
GEN Z AND MILLENNIALS ARE SOCIAL LIBERALS
Despite their overall drift to the right over economic issues, Gen Z and Millennial voters remain very liberal on social policy. Most of the issues popular on the right are unpopular with these voters.
Their polling responses are from another planet on social populist issues. Particularly Millennials do not share any of the Republican perspectives on social issues.
We tested a variety of social issues and after explaining them, giving both sides point of view, we asked if the issue made them more likely to vote for Trump or more likely to vote for Biden.
Here are the results:
|CRT Teaching In Schools||57||43|
|Transgender Education To Young||54||46|
|Abortion At 15 weeks||50||50|
|Contrast Data Above With How The Economy Impacts The Vote||60||40|
Best to stay with the economy issue! 15% of Biden voters said the economy made them more likely to vote for Trump.
ATTITUDES TOWARD TRUMP
What Trump himself could not accomplish in office nor could his public relations handlers, Joe Biden has accomplished: he has made Donald Trump acceptable to voters despite their concerns about his personality. The worse Joe Biden looks and the worse economy is the better Donald Trump looks to young voters.
Metaphorically, Biden is a frame around a portrait of Donald Trump that makes him look brighter and better. We asked Millennial and Gen Z voters this question:
Q. At first, like many young people I did not like Trump while he was president or during his campaign, but the more I see now of what has happened after he left office I’m giving Donald Trump a new look and liking him better.
|Results:||Agree (Trump Better)||Disagree|
At the end of the survey, after reading the respondents, all the positives and negatives on both sides, we asked again how they would vote (called the “informed ballot”).
There was a decided shift to Trump suggesting that even further gains may be likely.
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