Is the Republican Party, in its own inimitable fashion about to blow this election? With the House in their pockets and the Senate within reach, the GOP may have figured out a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
And their possible defeat would come from making the same mistake twice!
Remember how, in 2020, the Democrats piled up huge leads among those who voted early, sometimes weeks before election day, while. Republican operatives wrote ads and conducted polls and generally sat back and waited for the calendar to turn to election day to get out their vote. By the time the Republicans showed up, the Democrats had already piled up leads that were insurmountable through early voting.
While the Democrats went door-to-door to sign up their voters, Republicans sat back and waited. It’s like in baseball, when one team scratches out runs through walks, singles, stolen bases and sacrifice flies while the other team waits for the three-run homer that never comes.
You would have thought that the Republicans would have learned their lesson in 2020. But now, in 2022, the same thing is happening. As of today, October 23rd, 7,460,000 people have already voted, 1.67 million in person one 5.8 million by mail.
And, in states that register voters by party, 2.1 million of these early voters have been Democrats (50%) while only 1.2 million have been cast by Republicans (30%).
Polling by John McLaughlin, John Jordan, and me shows that, in Pennsylvania, 14% of Fetterman voters have already voted as against less than one percent of Oz supporters. In Arizona, twice as many of Democrat Kelly’s voters have already voted — 10% — as opposed to only 5% of Republican Masters’ supporters.
The central message of my new book, The Return: Trump’s Big 2024 Comeback, is that the Republican Party must change its political tactics to match the new rules Democrats unveiled in 2020.
It matters very much when a person votes. When Democrats ask a voter to cast his ballot two weeks before the election, they can follow up if he doesn’t come through with two or three or even ten visits to remind him.
But with election day voters, there is no margin for error. If even five percent of Republican voters don’t show up, because the kids got sick, things piled up, the flu, or just too many things to do, the Party risks losing Senate races that are now on razor edge in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio and, with them, control of the Senate or even the House.
So, why are the Republicans living so dangerously? Scarred by their 2020 experience, they worry that early votes for Republicans will be lost or misplaced. These worries about voter fraud are strong enough to get them to urge their devoted followers to stay home and only come out only on Election Day.
How shortsighted can you get? None of us can foretell the future, certainly in our own lives, and guarantee that in two weeks the children will be healthy, and they will be able to vote no matter what. Who can make that kind of prediction, especially with the life of the country hanging in the balance?
The answer is to provide sufficient ballot protection through volunteer poll watchers, not to let the voters stay home.
Two days after we were defeated in the election of 2020 campaign manager Jared Kushner called to boast to me: “Boy did we sure did a great job on Election Day.”
He was right. Trump pulled out 11 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016. But, by using early voting, Biden pulled out 15 million more.
Sure, we need to stop Democratic cheating, but to not vote is a hell of a way of doing it.
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