It is becoming increasingly possible for there to be a tie in the Electoral College with each candidate winning 269 electoral votes. In that case, Trump would win since, in the House, the Republican Party controls 33 state delegations and each state has one vote regardless of how many Congressmen it has.
Here’s how it could happen:
• Start with Trump winning all of the states Romney won, including North Carolina — which now appears likely. That’s 206 votes.
• Then, add in Trump wins in Ohio and Iowa where he is and has been ahead. That’s 230.
• Then, add Florida where Trump is now tied, having come back in recent days. Early voting tells the story. Romney lost the early voting by 161,000 votes and then gained among Election Day voters but only enough to lose the state by 74,000. Trump is now only 32,500 behind in early voting, so, if he gets the same Election Day bounce, he’d win by 60,000 votes. That’s 259.
• And in Colorado, entirely a vote by mail state, 7,000 more Republicans than Democrats have voted so far and Trump is likely to carry the large unaffiliated vote by a good margin. That’s 268.
• For the one remaining vote Trump needs to tie, Maine has changed its system so the statewide winner only gets two electoral votes and the remaining two are determined by how each Congressional District votes. One of the districts is solidly Democrat and the other is Republican. That’s 269 and a tie.
• Beyond 269? That’s iffy. Trump needs to pull an upset in New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16).
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