The recent Supreme Court decision on abortion is not likely to have a big impact at the federal level, but its impact on state races might still be significant.
The decision very clearly kicks the issue back to the states and Democratic efforts to codify Roe and make it a voting issue in Congress are not likely to succeed or to register much with the public.
However, at the state level particularly, in governors’ races in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, the issue could tip the balance in favor of the Democratic candidates for governor.
But it may not.
The positions of the two political parties on abortion are extreme polar opposites. The Democrats favor abortion on demand at any point in the pregnancy including the moment of birth. Shoot them on the way out.
Republicans oppose abortion at any moment during the pregnancy including the moments after conception and they apply the ideology even in cases of rape, incest, or the danger to the life of the mother.
Neither of these positions meets with much public approval.
[Watch My Video “The Extremes On Abortion Will Cancel Each Other Out” — CLICK HERE!]
The PEW research organization published its definitive finding last week when they gave voters six choices on abortion three pro-choice and three pro-life. It asked voters they believe that abortion should be legal or illegal in all cases, legal or illegal in most cases with a few exceptions, or legal or illegal with many exceptions.
Overall, the pro-choice point of view got a cumulative score of 60% while the pro-life got 40%. But, more significantly, the absolutes at each end got very few votes. The purist pro-life position has only 9% of support and the purist pro-abortion position gets only 17% support. So only 26% of the voters opted for either of the extremes while 72% had nuances to their opinions.
But neither side in the abortion issue will permit nuance to dominate or even to be heard. In a typical campaign, the Democrat will accuse the Republican of opposing abortion even when there is a rape involved and the Republicans will reply that the Democrat supports abortion right up to the instant of live birth. Both positions will turn voters off massively and they will offset each other neutralizing the issue for both sides.
And many voters — particularly in pro-abortion states — are likely to tune out once they realize that the court decision will have no impact in their own state because their rights to abortion are already well protected by state legislation. This “not in my backyard” philosophy is likely to undermine the saliency of the abortion issue.
So, overall the Democratic hopes that they can blunt the other key issues of inflation and the economy by focusing on abortion are not likely to come to fruition.
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