Mamdani Can Be Beaten
The most recent poll by Gotham Polling shows that Mamdani’s negative ratings are rising but that his vote share is not yet dropping.
Mamdani still wins 42 percent of the vote, leading the field though his negative ratings have almost doubled from the high thirties to 47 percent, the exact same level as his positives.
As voters learn the truth about Mamdani, they come to see him negatively but still vote for him because there is nobody else.
Andrew Cuomo is stuck at 23 percent and going nowhere according to the Gotham poll. Adams remains mired at a paltry 9 percent of the vote. The Republican, Curtis Silwa gets 17 percent as his partisan identification continues to hold him down.
But Mamdani is not a done deal.
Cuomo can’t move up. His negatives are too strong and neither can Adams. But Silwa can move up. Only his party is holding him back and, given the negatives on the other three candidates, being a Republican shouldn’t be fatal.
We have to give the race time to unfold. Mamdani’s negatives are going to keep rising and voters will get increasingly frustrated by the lack of alternative choices facing them.
Cuomo’s culpability in the genocide of 6,000 elderly New Yorkers, forced into nursing homes filled with highly contagious COVID patients during the pandemic makes him unelectable. New Yorkers will also strongly dislike having to pay half a million in damages for the governor’s sexual philandering while in office.
Adams, with sky high negatives after four years in office, shows no sign of rising even above ten percent of the vote.
So who’s left?
Curtis Silwa. Ultimately, New York Democrats need to forgive his Party. He’s pro-choice and no mouthpiece for Trump. His crime fighting credentials are impeccable. LaGuardia, Lindsay, and Giuliani governed well despite their party and so would Silwa.
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