Santorum’s May Myth

By Dick Morris on April 4, 2012

Rick Santorum has now punted April and is saying that we need to wait until May for him to rack up significant totals of delegates. Fat chance.

After DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin, Romney has about 640 delegates. He will probably win New York (95 delegates), Del (17), Ct (28), and RI (19) raising his total to about 770. He’ll lose Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri but he’ll get his share raising his total to 800 delegates). He could, and probably will, win Pennsylvania giving him 870. (Santorum doesn’t have delegates in each part of his home state).

Then comes May, Rick’s favorite month. But Romney will probably win Maine (24), Indiana (46), and Oregon (28) giving him just shy of 1,000 delegates. He’ll probably lose Arkansas (36), and might lose Kentucky (45), Nebraska (35), North Carolina (45). He will however pick up some portion of their delegations in the proportional representation states. And he’ll likely lose the big May primary – Texas with 155 votes. But since Texas votes by Congressional District, he’ll win his share. Most likely, he will exit May with over 1,000 delegates and could approach 1,100.

Then, by June 6th, he will vault past the 1,144 he needs for the nomination by winning California, New Jersey, Utah, South Dakota, Washington State, Montana, and New Mexico.

Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul not only have no chance at winning a majority of the delegates, but they also have no chance of deadlocking the convention. The numbers don’t add up.

Let’s get real and get on with beating Obama.

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