If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to seal President Obama’s fate, all he has to do is to attack Iran. It is clear from Obama’s AIPAC speech that the president will continue to talk about diplomacy and sanctions for the remainder of his term and will take no military action against Iran. If Israel attacks Iran, she will achieve three things:
a. Israel will buy time by delaying the Iranian nuclear program by one to three years.
b. Those extra years will give the effective sanctions, only now being imposed, time to work.
c. The resulting increase in the price of oil – and its impact on the American economy – will doom Obama’s re-election chances, assuring that a pro-Israeli Republican Administration takes power.
With a Republican in the White House and in control of Congress, Israel will be well positioned to derail permanently the Iranian nuclear program.
Obama could never recover from the run-up of oil prices that would follow an Israeli attack. His refusal to approve the Keystone Pipeline, to drill in the ANWR reserve, and to issue permits for deep sea drilling, all make him ultra-vulnerable on the gas price issue. He has no good answers on the subject.
A huge increase in gas prices at the pump will also send the world into the same kind of oil shock as happened in 1973 and 1979, each of which was followed by a global recession in reaction. Obama would not be able to be re-elected amid the tidal wave of bad economic news he would face.
How ironic that Netanyahu, therefore, really controls Obama’s fate. He can’t re-elect his sworn enemy (I doubt anyone can do that) but he can defeat him and likely will do so.
Netanyahu has to face the fundamental fact that Israel cannot survive another four years of an Obama presidency. Freed of the constraints that the need to get re-elected imposes, the president’s anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian bias will come out in virulent form with likely lethal implications for Israel. If Bibi lets Obama get re-elected, he will be dooming the Jewish State to extinction.
All the evidence indicates that he understands his choices and will respond accordingly. At least we hope so.
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