GOP Now Leads In Seven Senate Races For Dem Seats

By Dick Morris on April 7, 2014

Republican Senate candidates now lead their rivals in seven contests, including three involving Democratic incumbents. Republicans need to win six seats to gain control of the Senate.

In an eighth seat, the Republican is tied with a Democratic incumbent. And, in a ninth contest, the GOP candidate trails the Democratic incumbent by only two points.

In the following seven races — all in seats now held by Democrats — the Republican has a lead:

Republicans Lead in Seven:

(Asterisk * means Republican faces significant primary)

Michigan

Land (R) = 40
Peters (D) = 38

(Open seat; Carl Levin retired; amazing run for a Republican in deeply blue state)

North Carolina

Tillis (R) = 46*
Hagan (D) = 45

(Tillis leads in tough primary; Hagan well under 50% of the vote)

Alaska

Treadwell (R) = 47*
Begish (D) = 43

(Treadwell faces tough primary but Begish is way behind and further under 50%)

Montana

Daines (R) = 51
Walsh (D) = 37

(Open seat; its over)

Louisiana

Cassidy (R) = 46
Landrieu (D) = 42

(Landrieu way under 50)

South Dakota

Rounds(R) = 51
Weiland (D) = 31

(Open seat; its over)

West Virginia

Capito (R) = 49
Tennant (D) = 35

(Open seat; it’s over)

Republican Tied in One:

Arkansas

Cotton (R) = 46
Pryor (D) = 46

(Pryor is under 50)

Republican Close in Three:

Iowa

Jacobs (R) = 38*
Braley (D) = 41

(Open seat; Jacobs still faces tough primary; but possible pickup)

Colorado

Gardiner (R) = 40
Udall (D) = 42

(Udall way under 50%)

Minnesota

Ortman (R) = 41*
Franken (D) = 44

(Franken way under 50%)

One Possible Dem Takeaway:

Kentucky

McConnell (R) = 43
Grimes (D) = 42

(McConnell way under 50%)

So, with eleven Democratic seats leaning Republican and only one Republican seat leaning Democrat, the makings of a huge Republican sweep seem to be taking shape.

It is also worth following Oregon where Democrat Jeff Merkley has only 46% of the vote against his nearest rival Conger. And, in New Hampshire where Jeanine Sheehan manages only 50% of the vote against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown’s 38.

The only other possible Democratic takeaway is in Georgia, but Republican front runner (in a tough primary) Purdue leads the Democrat Nunn by 38-33.

So, at the moment, a reversal of the 55-45 Democratic majority to make it a 55-45 Republican majority seems possible.

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