The Coming Collapse Of Xi Jinping
It’s coming.
No leader, no matter how autocratic and dictatorial, can survive having made the plethora of mistakes that Xi has made:
- He neglected selling his products to his own people, opting instead to export them to the United States. About 20 percent of China’s exports end up in the US and only about one-third of its production of goods and services is consumed domestically!
- He picked a trade war with the US, ignoring China’s incredibly greater vulnerability. The fact is that Washington only sells less than $200 billion to China while we buy $500 billion from them. Losing the American market is a catastrophe for China but losing the Chinese market is only an inconvenience to the US. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
- He bet that the US would tolerate a huge trade deficit with China indefinitely, oblivious to the political calculus of Donald Trump.
- He has turned the clock back on all of the capitalist reforms of Deng Xiaoping that made the Chinese economy work and replaced them with Maoist statist solutions that have, as they always do, failed to bring growth. China’s economy had no growth in the first quarter and likely wont rebound this quarter.
- He has done nothing to counter the rapid decline in China’s working age population, condemning it to a drop in population to the point where the US will be larger by the century’s end. China is becoming a nursing home.
- Denied the legitimacy of Marxist doctrine, Xi depends on materialism and economic growth to stay in power. Now he has neither one.
- His foreign policy is a throwback to the days when the West imposed debt slavery on the third world. Just as Britain, France, Germany and Portugal did. In order to get his hands on food, raw materials and rare earth minerals, he has enticed dictators to borrow money they can’t repay that ends up in their Swiss bank accounts so he can seize their resources as repayment.
Dictators, unlike Puff’s magic dragon, do not live forever. The Chinese communist system may or may not fall but Xi’s time is limited.
The likelihood is a coup like the one in Moscow in 1964 that toppled the reformist and mercurial Nikita Khrushchev and replaced him with the more reliable and stolid Leonid Breshnev.
But, of course, without the fundamental reforms that are needed, there will be no economic progress and the new leadership will just go the way of the ancien regime.
Xi’s predicament can best be solved by waging war to unite and motivate his people and stave off his ouster.
To deter him, Trump must make clear that an invasion of Taiwan would quickly lead to a total embargo on all American trade with China, an existential threat to Beijng.
Trump called Xi’s bluff and now his back is against the wall — the great wall of China.
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