Mamdani Can Be Beaten
Zohran Mamdani is now suddenly vulnerable in his bid to become New York City’s first overtly socialist mayor. The latest polling from Harris X, a highly reliable firm, suggests a race essentially tied among Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Republican candidate Curtis Silwa.
According to Harris X, Mamdani (26 percent) is tied with Cuomo (23 percent) and Silwa (22 percent), all within the margin of error. Adams is at 13 percent and 15 percent of voters are undecided.
The Harris X poll sampled 585 likely general election voters in New York City on July 7-8.
The poll is notable in that it reflects big gains by GOP candidate Curtis Silwa and slippage among both Cuomo and the incumbent Mayor Eric Adams. While conventional wisdom holds that a Republican cannot win in New York City, the three-way fracturing of the Democratic vote among Mamdani, Cuomo, and Adams now makes a Silwa victory a possibility.
Cuomo largely lost the Democratic Primary to Mamdani because of voter anger at his genocidal policy during the Pandemic, forcing COVID patients out of hospitals and into nursing homes where their disease spread to 6,000 people causing their death. Adams has never done well in polling and had to drop out of the Democratic primary as a result. His failure to rally significant support from black voters, despite being only the second African-American mayor in New York’s history, shows his vulnerability. So Silwa has a chance.
In the publicly funded race, Silwa is not likely to face the financial problems that normally hobble Republican candidates. His background as a crime fighter, the founder of Guardian Angels, a nonprofit crime prevention organization, make him an attractive candidate in a race where crime is the leading issue.
On June 19, 1992, Silwa was kidnapped and shot by two gunmen after entering a stolen taxi in Manhattan. The taxi picked up Silwa near his home in the East Village, and a gunman hiding in the front passenger seat jumped up and fired several shots, hitting him in the groin and legs. The kidnapping was foiled when Silwa leaped from the front window of the moving cab and escaped. Silwa underwent surgery for internal injuries and leg wounds.
Federal prosecutors eventually charged John A. Gotti, the son of Gambino crime family leader John Gotti, with attempted murder claiming that Gotti was angered by remarks Silwa had made about Gotti’s father on his radio program. After three attempts to try him, on September 20, 2005, three separate juries could not agree to convict Gotti on any of the charges brought against him, and the charges were dropped. Jurors later told reporters they believed he had a role in Silwa’s shooting.[25] Prosecutors declined to re-try Gotti and dismissed the charges against him.
Mamdani has been dogged by charges of anti-semitism and recently was forced to “clarify” his remarks calling for a “global intifada against Jews.” Liz Benjamin, a spokesperson for the Pro-Cuomo PAC Fix the City, said “When you strip away his Hollywood tinsel, what you realize is that Mr. Mamdani has repeatedly embraced the rhetoric of hate. It is far past time for him to disavow his own calls to ‘globalize the intifada’, which many understand is an invitation to violence.”
Mamdani’s campaign has centered around socialist proposals such as free bus fares, no rent increases, legalized sex work, and a ban on immigration law enforcement in the City.
While the Democratic base can still rally to Mamdani, his antagonism of the Jewish vote makes it less likely.
Silwa can win.
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