Why The NY Times Poll Is Wrong
Whether deliberately or not, the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll is wrong! It shows Obama carrying Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In reality, Romney is leading in all three states and will carry them all.
Here’s the deal. The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008.
Here Comes The Landslide
Published on TheHill.com on October 30, 2012
Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.
As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working.
What Does Early Voting Mean? Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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In this video commentary, I discuss early voting and how Democrats and Republicans use it differently. Tune in!
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Something you should know about your local bank
There’s a wild rumor going around about a major loophole in the U.S. retail banking system…One that enables you to get real, “hold-in-your-hand” silver from practically any bank in the U.S. All you do is say five specific words and according to this rumor — you could walk out with a handful of silver.
Click here for the full details.
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Romney Keeps Momentum- Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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Beyond Ohio: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin
Ohio (18 votes) and Iowa (6 votes) hang in the balancing, intractably tied for weeks now. Romney will win both since Obama is under 50% and the undecided will carry the state for the Republican, but we would do well to look beyond Ohio to other places where we could win the election.
Romney now leads in Florida (29 electoral votes), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), North Carolina (15) Indiana (10) and New Hampshire (4). Add those to the 179 in states McCain carried and you have Romney at 259, 11 shy of victory.
Will Iowa (6) and Ohio (18) provide the margin? Probably yes. But both states are maddingly tied at 48-48. Romney probably wins both because the undecided will break at least 3-1 against Obama, but why worry?
Focus on Pennsylvania (20) , Michigan (15) , and Wisconsin (10), states which were not designated as “swing” in the previous months. In these three states, Obama’s negatives against Romney have not run and the only Mitt they know is the good one they saw in the debates.
Pennsylvania is the ripest of the three states. Pollster John McLaughlin has Romney ahead 48-46. His sample has 46% Dems and 39% Republicans, a +7 Democrat sample. In the 2004 election, Pennsylvania’s actual voters were +3 Democrat and in 2008, they were +7 Democrat. (This is based on exit polling in each election and reflects the party identification given by voters as they left the voting booth). So McLaughlin’s sample may actually understate the Romney vote since it is unlikely that Pennsylvania – or any state – will see a replication of the highly Democratic 2008 turnout.
And, in the Pennsylvania US Senate race, Republican Tom Smith is leading Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey by 2 points according to McLaughlin and 1 point according to Rasmussen.
And why shouldn’t Pennsylvania go Republican? In 2010, they elected a Republican governor, US Senator, 5 Congressmen and put GOP majorities in charge of both houses of their legislature.
Focus on Pennsylvania. It’s 20 electoral votes are even better than the 18 found in Ohio.
(The old shibboleth that no Republican can win without Ohio comes from the time when the Buckeye State had 25 electoral votes. Seven of them moved south and now it has only 18).
In Michigan, too, we have a splendid chance of victory. My own polling has Romney one point behind Obama 45-44. With the president so far below 50% of the vote, Romney is very likely to carry the state.
Republicans, after all fared very well in Michigan in 2010 capturing the governorship and both houses of their legislature.
And, in Wisconsin, Rasmussen’s poll, released today, shows the race tied at 48-48 (after Obama led on October 18th by 50-48). With the undecided going against the incumbent, that really could translate to a big Romney win. Superpacs for Romney have invested more than a million dollars in ads. Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes are very much in play and very winnable.
Consider the history of the state. In 2010, it elected a new Republican governor, gave the GOP majorities in both houses, elected two new Republican Congressmen and replaced the extreme liberal Russ Feingold with Tea Party darling Ron Johnson. Now it is set to elect another Republican Senator (former Gov Tommy Thompson is ahead by 2 having surged from behind). And in the recall election, Gov Scott Walker won by 7 points. Wisconsin is going to go Republican.
This is not to say we should slack off in Ohio or Iowa. No! Keep working! But also look beyond at Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The U.N. Tries To Become A Global Government_Ben_Test
The United Nations was founded to provide a forum in which the world’s nations could negotiate their differences to avoid armed conflict. Its administrative role was restricted to policing peace agreements after they were concluded and providing humanitarian assistance around the world.
But now, the U.N. is trying to become the world’s government, superseding national sovereignty and making of the world, one nation. And who is to run this global government? The unelected bureaucrats who staff the U.N. will. And who will set policy for them? The corrupt, undemocratic nations that comprise the U.N. General Assembly will.
In our new book, Here Come the Black Helicopters: U.N. Global Governance and the Loss of Freedom, we warn of the dangers of this change in the goals of the United Nations.
The U.N. is an inherently undemocratic institution. Only 45% of its members are deemed to be “free” nations by the Freedom Institute which rates such matters. And about one-third of the world’s population — including notably China — are governed (and represented in the U.N.) by totally dictatorial governments.
When the nations of the world sit augustly in the General Assembly chamber behind name plates for each country, the spectacle is deceptive. The delegate from Russia should not be called the representative of the “Russian Federation”. He is the representative of one man — Vladimir Putin. The Chinese delegate should frankly be called the representative of the handful of members of that country’s Politburo. The delegate for Venezuela represents only Hugo Chavez.
To give the United States, Britain, France, Canada, Germany, Japan and the other democracies on the planet the same one vote each as the U.N. gives dictatorships is a travesty.
When the U.N. was a forum for negotiation to avoid war, it made sense to take the nations as they come, treating free and not free equally. In avoiding war, it doesn’t matter if the Russian representative only speaks for Putin because it is on Putin’s say-so that a war could be launched.
But if we are talking about a global government, how can we accord one man the same power as the elected leaders of democracies elected by hundreds of millions of voters?
And, in the U.N., size should matter but it doesn’t. In Here Comes the Black Helicopters, we note that the U.N. is run by a Lilliputians who would tie up the world’s Gullivers. A voting majority of the General Assembly — 97 countries — have populations of less than eight million (smaller than New York City). These 97 nations have a combined population of 241 million — much less than the United States by itself. Forty have fewer than one million. Some have fewer than 100,000 populations. Monaco (33,000), San Marino (33,000), Palau (20,000), Tuvalu (20,000), and Nauru (10,000) each cast the same vote as China (1.3 billion), India (1.2 billion), and the United States (310 million).
Our democracy was redefined by the Supreme Court as requiring “one man, one vote.” But how can we join a global government in which a majority votes are cast by countries with less than 5% of the world’s population?
And are these nations, who would constitute a kind of global Congress to rule over us, honest?
Transparency International found that only fifty of the 182 nations rated were “honest.” Ninety-two (half the countries) were rated as highly corrupt (three or less on a one to ten scale).
So we are being asked to subject ourselves to the rule of tiny, corrupt, autocratic nations. And to them we are being asked to cede our precious sovereignty.
Please read Here Come the Black Helicopters to learn the true danger we face and how to stop it from taking away our precious freedom.
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Romney Keeps Momentum – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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In this video commentary, I discuss Romney’s momentum and how it keeps building and building.
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Dick
This Dick Morris Lunch Alert! sponsored by Stansberry Research.
A video that could change your vote
It doesn’t matter if you’re Democrat or Republican…
If you love Obama… or hate him.
A new video has surfaced which could drastically alter your opinion of the sitting President.
What does it show? Click here to see.
View my most recent videos in case you missed them!
The Ohio Illusion – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
History Of October Surprises – Dick Morris TV: History Video!
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Libya Will Haunt Obama – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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Obama Woos Women With Phony Education Pitch
President Obama is working hard to bring back the women he lost by his terrible and obnoxious debate performances. No longer able to portray Romney as a war monger after Mitt’s performance in the third debate, he is intent on using the education issue to lure back women.
But don’t be fooled!
Obama’s proposal to hire 100,000 new teachers skirts the main problem. Why will 100,000 new teachers succeed when 3.2 million current teachers are trying?
The Ohio Illusion – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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In this video commentary, I discuss how Romney will carry Ohio…but he doesn’t have to.
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Dick
This Dick Morris Lunch Alert! sponsored by Stansberry Research.
Three disturbing facts about America…
Why will 50% of the U.S. population be on food stamps at some point in their life? Why is the percentage of workers who collect “disability checks” up 400%? Why do we have 25% of the ENTIRE WORLD’s prison population? The answer is simple, but something no one wants to admit.
And it has nothing to do with politics, immigration, or religion. Get the facts and the answers here…
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History Of October Surprises – Dick Morris TV: History Video!
The UN Will Inspect American Elections – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
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Gallup Explains Why Other Polls Are Wrong
In a large sample, very important survey, Gallup reported on Friday that the likely 2012 electorate will be among the most Republican in history.
In 2008, 12 percent more self-described Democrats voted than Republicans (54-42). In 2004, the electorate was 48-48 evenly split between the parties. In Gallup’s poll, they found that in 2012 it will be 46-49 for the Republicans — a fifteen point swing from 2008!
History Of October Surprises – Dick Morris TV: History Video!
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In this video commentary, I discuss the history of the October Surprise in our election process. Tune in!
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Dick
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View my most recent videos in case you missed them!
The UN Will Inspect American Elections – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
Libya Will Haunt Obama – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
Romney’s Trajectory – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
Romney Gains In Third Debate – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
How Romney Can Make It 3-0 In Debates Tonight – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
