By Dick Morris on September 17, 2011

Dear Friend,

In this video commentary, I discuss Rick Perry’s chances of winning the GOP presidential nomination. He was way out ahead. Then he took some tough shots. Will Rick Perry make it?

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Please leave a comment below - I would love to hear what you think! Thanks, Dick
, Christie, Palin, Gingrich, and Cain. I really like Cain, but he may be the least electable of these four. However, the electorate deserves a thorough opportunity to make that judgment. We CANNOT leave this screening process to be massaged daily by the GOP political consultants and talking heads (no offense intended). This election is too important and “out of the box” results may very well happen in this election. We HAVE to get this right, this time.

  • Kingmaker on September 17, 2011 6:26 pm

    Dear Mr. Morris,

    You say he is a frontrunner and he has five areas that could be his down fall. But for all the problems you claim Perry has, you could have easily as many if not more for all of the other candidates. I know everyone keeps looking at last election reminding everyone of Guiliani and Thompson but that was such a different time. The country was sick of Bush and his direction and thought a more moderate might be better. And Obama was a great orator and Alinsky politics destroyed Mccain but that is just not the case now.

    The only people who have a chance at defeating him are Romney and Bachmann. And Bachmann can’t stop jamming her foot deep in her mouth and making whacko stupid comments. I like Bachmann she is very charismatic and articulate candidate. But her outlandish statements make her unelectable. She is clearly her own worst enemy.
    Her only chance at gaining ground on Perry is if she shuts up. But don’t count on that with her decline in the polls and the fact it is just her nature. Her own staff says she is uncontrollable. And now out of desperation she is making unvalidated claims of cronyism but Bachman has thousands of dollars of contributions from pharms and did nothing to stop another sexually transmitted mandated vacination in her own state.

    As for Romney, it just came out Romneycare lost 18,000 jobs and cost millions more healthcare costs for Mass. His past positions in many areas including Cap and Trade scream liberal. And let’s face it when Jimmy Carter is endorsing your candidacy and Rachel Maddow says Romney looks normal compared to Perry you can be be sure that conservatives will not be moving toward Romney. And that doesn’t even mention the quiet secret that manyt Christians won’t vote for a mormon.
    For all the claims of Perry being unelectable, it’s Romney who will have the biggest problems in the early primaries. Florida has a strong Hispanic and tea party population. Perry clearly favors them. Perry wins the evangelical vote too. Romney is going for seniors and moderates but that won’t be enough.

    And what makes it even more difficult is the path for Romney is so much more difficult. Think about it, even if Perry loses Iowa and I doubt that but let us say somehow Bachmann pulls it out (she won’t). Perry is already a lock for South Carolina and Florida. So Romney has New Hampshire and Bachmann gets Iowa (doubtful) then what happens. Candidates start running out of money. Yes and that means candidates like Santorium and Cain and Newt spend all of there money and drop out and Palin announces she is running for Arizona senate and not the presidency. Where do all of those votes go to. I can tell you where most of them won’t go and that is Romney and at that point Perry becomes a lock.

    People want conservative values. Just look at NY-9 and don’t even begin to say Perry is not electable. Perry is so not Obama and that is what this country wants. If Romney wins Obama will say “hey Mitt I based Obamacare after Romneycare!” How do you argue against that?
    Of course the Romney team keeps pushing that electability stuff but the reality is it is just BS. Gerald Ford made the same claims about Reagan and look how that helped Jimmy Carter. I would go on to say the electability problem is more true for Romney.

    So now let us get to your 5 areas Romney will have trouble.
    Perry has clearly stated he will not remove Social Security but you say he said it was unconstitutional well Romney said it was criminal and he also said he was for privatization. How does Perry lose there?
    As for an Issue Obamacare is ten times more the issue than Social security and that issue is mute if Romney and Romneycare is running against him.

    Your third point is your strongest point and Perry who has shown some compassion towards illegal immigrant children who have come across her with their parents and not alone and have shown some success in high school and now wish to go to college the state gives them the in-state tuition rate. Now that is hardly a magnet and he is not offering amnesty. And he is requiring that they apply for citizenship.

    About the fence, Romney and everyone else not named Perry is adamantly in favor of building a fence but it is a major waste of billions of dollars and a lot of time. All you need is a rope and some sticks to climb over it in less than five minutes and that’s if you are not a little bit athletic. The current way it is built every 50 feet or so the U.S. contractors have built these joints in the fence that can be used as a ladder for all but the weakest. The Arizona law is profiling and while I am not totally against it. Boots on the ground is the best way to go and the bottom line is this is United State’s border and it is a federal responsibility to secure it. Not the states.

    But still I agree there are some who will not vote for him for that reason alone but what I can almost assure you is that whatever losses he gets on that point he will double or triple in Latino support in those states with a heavy latino population. Which makes Perry a lock for Florida. Perry is the only republican with a favorable rating with latinos and that is because of his positions. That makes him viable in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado and a shoe in Florida and other swing states.

    Your fourth point you state it in a way that is just false. Not one child got inoculated under Perry’s mandate. NOT ONE! It is irresponsible to suggest this. So please be clear on that point. And the HPV Vaccine has shown no serious repercussions in over 30 million vaccinations. It has one of the least side effects of all of the vaccines and with 3700 people dying every year from cervical cancer (which by the way is one of the most horrific cancers to die from). The Gardasil story about the mother whose daughter was “mentally retarded thereafter” was a) not based on ANY other reported incident of this outcome and b) just because B follows A does not mean A CAUSED B!). But that’s typical of Bachmann… Now if your point is did Perry go about wrong. Yes, he admitted as much. Was it the wrong thing to do? Many people think not.

    As far as cronyism goes. There is no evidence of that. And Perry has never been proven in anyway to show it. I also think you know that $30,000 bucks is not enough to buy Perry off. And if you are going to look at cronyism to degree you are staing it here than it is easy to find it in every candidte. Bachmann has collected $140,000 from pharm companies and Romney has even more.

    I do agree this is the process of vetting him. But I can assure Romney will vet better than you suggest and will only get better. Right now it is 7 to 1 out there but make not mistake about it Perry is going nowhere. He has the money to withstand even losses in South Carolina and Florida but that won’t happen and win Perry wins almost all the money will start to dry up for everyone else. Romney and Paul may last but not for very long. The truth is while people aren’t saying much about it Romneycare, waffling on abortion and a lousy job record in Massachusetts is just to much to overcome. And I am not even including the fact he is a Mormon.

    In the end the Republican nomination is Perry’s to lose. He will need a lot more than the five problem areas you suggest to lose. Romney will beat him in blue states but Republican Kings are not made there so let us see what happens.

    Ron King

  • katie12 on September 17, 2011 7:08 pm

    Please unite behind Romney. He is decent and hospitable. He is absolutely committed to ending ObamaCare. He is the one I trust to get us the Balanced Budget Amendment. And as Ayn Rand knew, the American capitalist businessman is the anti-Communist hero. And he is a strong supporter our allies and friends.

  • katie12 on September 17, 2011 7:31 pm

    Perry took money from Spanish, globalist interests for his superhighway. His Democrat opponent didn’t even favor the toll-road system. It would have destroyed 500,000 acres of farmland. The only reason we can talk “forgiveness” is that our Texas conservative legislature had to and did block Perry, again.

    And Perry lied when he said that next time he’d first consult with the legislature about that vaccine. Our Texas legislature went to Perry and consulted HIM. They warned him to not sign his executive order, but he did it anyway the same way Obama does his business in government.

    Bachmann called it straight by bringing up Merck lobbyists and corruption. Merck made more than the donations given that one year worth hundreds of thousands for Perry. This ugly deceit IS Perry. It is accurate that Perry is a Leftist. There is nothing to forgive. That is his character. He is about as conservative as Mao.

    Texas is the most lax state about gifts / perks, and Perry is wallowing in it. He is not the one we are looking for. Obewan http://statesmansword.blogspot.com/

  • waco-kid on September 18, 2011 8:42 pm

    After reading the comments above I must disagree with the views regarding Governor Perry’s beliefs on eminent dommain; I own a ranch in Central Texas and from 2002 to 2008 we were in an impact study area for the Trans Texas Corridor, we signed many petitions to Gov. Perry and attended many TXDOT meetings in the area, only to be told we did not understand what good could come of the project(sound familiar?). So against the will of the people, he and his administraion pursued the 185 plus billion dollar project anyway, that was projected to have taken many years to complete and would have been outdated before it was even half way finished and involving a company from Spain. Luckily the state legislature ruled the TTC project dead this year, but Gov. Perry never said he was wrong or sorry that he was so fixated on taking private property. Now regarding the Governors position on the border fence, if he had no problems taking away the land from Mexico to Oklahoma, I doubt he would hesitate to take land on the banks of the Rio Grande if he really wanted to, but he won’t because he does not oppose illeagal immigration. The problem with Governor Perry is that he puts on a good show, excites everyone and sounds like a conservative; but when he goes back to his office and no one is looking he moves to the left.