With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton.
On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls.
(The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino).
Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals.
Obama’s personal favorability is 47-50 while Romney’s is 48-48. The president’s job approval is at 46%.
Asked who would do the best job of:
Improving the economy = O-39 / R-49
Creating jobs = O-38 / R-50
Strengthening Medicare = O-44 / R-42
While the Medicare issue is important, it is not the major factor. Asked which is more important, “protecting and strengthening Medicare or improving the economy and creating jobs?” The economy wins by 67-18.
Comparing Medicare plans without explaining them, voters break even with 41% favoring Obama’s and 42% backing Romney’s. Asked which scares them the most, Obama’s scared 46% and Romney’s scared 44%.
But Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan has scored a bull’s eye by his comparison of the two Medicare plans and the following answers indicate:
Whose plan do you agree with more? Obama who would save $716 in Medicare spending and use the money to cover the uninsured or Romney who would make the same savings but use the funds to extend the life of the Medicare trust fund?
Obama’s 38% / Romney’s 53%
And the President continues to draw big negatives over his plans to intervene in medical decision making:
President Obama’s health care law sets up a Board to issue guidelines and instructions to doctors and hospitals on what procedures, medications, or treatment to use for each illness. Do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?
Agree: 33% / Disagree: 61%
After argumentation, disagreement with Obama’s Medicare cuts becomes even sharper:
Supporters of this provision say that it will allow us to save funds in Medicare without cutting care. They say that the Board can stop unnecessary tests or overly costly treatments that do not help the patients. But opponents say that it will lead to rationing of Medicare treatment. They say that the Board would ban the most effective medicines to treat cancer, for example, because they are too expensive and might stop old people from getting hip replacements or heart bypasses. In view of these arguments, do you agree or disagree with this aspect of Obama’s legislation?
Agree: 30% / Disagree: 57%
Voters agree by 56-20 that “Romney and Ryan would not change Medicare for current beneficiaries or for people who are now over 55.” And, by 25-60, they reject the statement that “Romney and Ryan would end Medicare and leave the elderly without a good alternative.”
By 48-33, voters agree that “President Obama has not proposed any real long term fix for Medicare” although by 63-18 they agree that “In a few years, Medicare will exhaust its trust fund and will go bankrupt unless we enact changes and reforms.”
But Romney still has some selling to do. Only 38% agreed and 31% disagreed that “Romney will always allow elderly to stay in traditional Medicare. He will just offer a voucher system that will have more attractive alternatives.”
In evaluating the health care and Medicare issue, voters feel that high medical malpractice costs play a key role in driving up costs. By 63-20, they agree that “the abuse of medical malpractice law suits is a big reason medical costs are so high.” By 57-37, they support Romney’s proposals to “curb medical malpractice litigation” agreeing that it “will save billions and extend the life of Medicare.”
Tomorrow, I’ll discuss the survey’s findings on the economy, Obama’s possible second term plans, Bain Capital, Romney’s taxes, the negative campaigning on both sides.
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