Seven months ago, the conventional wisdom was that, while the Republicans would score impressive gains in both houses of Congress in the elections of 2010, the Democrats would keep control. Now, it is that the Republicans may, indeed, capture the House, but never the Senate. Presidential press secretary Robert Gibbs admitted that the loss of the House was a possibility.
The conventional wisdom is still wrong. The Republicans will take the Senate and the House.
Here’s the Senate rundown:
The GOP has six retiring incumbents. Kentucky and Kansas are no problem. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt is ahead and, in Ohio, Republican Ron Portman is slightly ahead. In New Hampshire, the Republicans have a fierce primary, but, trust us, if even Massachusetts went Republican, New Hampshire won’t go Democrat. In Florida, Republican Rubio is in a tough race against turncoat former Republican Crist, but he will eventually pull through.
Easy Pickups: Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota
Republicans hold a commanding lead in the three open seats and a double digit lead over Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
The Balance of Power States:
Republican Pat Toomey is pulling ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak. Likely GOP pickup.
Both parties have primaries but either Republican beats either Democrat. Another pickup.
Despite a negative pounding, Sharron Angle is still ahead of Reid and Harry is decidedly under 50% of the vote in all polls. Probably Harry loses
Tied race between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Giannoulais. Could go either way.
Carly Fiorina is only 3 pts behind Barbara Boxer and Boxer is under 50% and has been all year. Could go either way
Republican Dino Rossi is tied with incumbent Patty Murray and Murray is under 50%. Could go either way.
Republican Ron Johnson who is not well known, is very close to Russ Feingold in the polls. Russ is still ahead but Johnson has a very good shot.
So of the seven balance of power states, the Republicans have to pick up six to take the Senate. We probably will. In fact, the trend out there is so strong, the economy so bad, the Afghan War such bad news, the oil spill so awful that we likely win all seven.
The Republican Party will win the Senate. We just need to all mobilize and send our checks where and when they will do the most good. Sign up to get our columns (for free) and get your friends to sign up and we’ll call in the artillery barrages as we need them!