A July 9th national poll by Monmouth University shows that 56% of Democratic primary voters would be “very” or “somewhat” likely to “consider supporting Biden for the nomination over your current choice” if he enters the race.
The survey first asked voters for whom they would vote if the primary were held now. Hillary led the field, although barely eked out a majority:
• Hillary = 51%
• Sanders = 17%
• Biden = 13%
• Webb = 1%
• O’Malley = 1%
• Undecided = 17%
Then, they asked the votes who were not voting for Biden (87% of the sample) “Joe Biden has not yet indicated whether he intends to run. If Biden does get into the race, how likely would you be to consider supporting him for the nomination over your current choice?” The results are a real boost to Biden’s chances:
• Already for Biden = 13%
• Very likely to switch = 12%
• Somewhat likely to switch = 31%
• Not too likely = 19%
• Not at all likely = 19%
• Undecided = 6%
When you drill down, Hillary’s unshakeable base in the Democratic Primary is only 38% (those who said it was not likely that they would switch).
Hillary’s weakness is apparent when one notes that 49% of the voters in the initial poll chose to be undecided or to vote for another candidate.
The myth of her invincibility is being shattered.
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