HOW THE GOP WILL WIN THE SENATE

By Dick Morris And Eileen McGann on February 8, 2010

If the Republican Party wins every senate seat in which it now holds a lead, according to Rasmussen’s polls, it will capture eight Democratic seats while holding all of its own. The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana where former Senator Dan Coats may run against Senator Evan Bayh and in California.

The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana where former Senator Dan Coats may run against Senator Evan Bayh and in California. Even if Coats does not run, former Congressman John Hostettler is only behind Bayh by 44-41. And, in California, former Hewlitt Packhard CEO Carly Fiorina is also only three points behind Senator Barbara Boxer.

(This assumes that former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson takes on Senator Russ Feingold).

Here’s the data:

In these eight races, the Republican is ahead:

State
Contest
Latest Polling
Date
Delaware
Castle v Coones
Castle +29
Jan
ND
Hoeven v unknown
Hoeven +20 (v Dorgan)
Dec
Ark
Lincoln v 4 opps
Repub (Baker) +19
Feb
Nev
Reid v 3 opps
Repub (Tarkanian) +8
Feb
Colorado
Norton v Bennet
Norton +14
Feb
Penn
Toomey v Specter
Toomey +9
Jan
Illinois
Kirk v Giannoulias
Kirk +6
Feb
Wisconsin
Thompson v Feingold
Thompson +3
Jan


And, in these two states, the results are close:

State
Contest
Latest Polling
Date
California
Boxer v 3 opps
Boxer (v Fiorina) +3
Jan
Indiana
Bayh v Hostettler
Bayh +3
Jan

If Republicans take all ten seats, they take control in the Senate.

In addition strong challenges may be shaping up in New York against Kirsten Gillibrand and in Washington State against Patty Murray.

Gillibrand, appointed to fill Hillary’s seat, is very vulnerable, both in a primary against former Tennessee Democratic Congressman Harold Ford and in a general election. If a strong candidate emerges, she and/or Ford could be defeated.

And in Washington State, innovative businessman (and millionaire) Paul Akers is likely to run against Patty Murray. The Washington State senator only won with 55% of the vote last time, a poor performance for a three term incumbent. Akers’ company takes new technologies, buys them, and then uses them to create jobs. He should give Murray a tough race which he could end up winning.

But the message of Massachusetts is that any Republican can beat any Democrat anywhere. So don’t count out former Congressman Rob Simmons’ race against Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal or any possible candidate against Oregon’s Ron Wyden and New York’s Chuck Schumer.

The Republicans will win the Senate (and the House) and might win it with a few seats to spare!

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Please leave a comment below - I would love to hear what you think! Thanks, Dick
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