It gets tiresome hearing the conventional wisdom say that the Democrats will likely keep control of the Senate. Far from it.
To gain control, Republicans must win ten new seats. An analysis of the latest polling data suggests that Republicans currently hold the lead in eight pick-up states: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Washington State, Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota, and Indiana. In a ninth, Illinois, the candidates are tied and, in the tenth – Nevada – Reid is ahead by only one point. And, for insurance, Boxer in California and Gillibrand in New York are both below 50% of the vote. In Connecticut, Blumenthal is only at 50%. That’s a potential pickup of thirteen seats and a likely gain of at least ten (enough for a majority).
Any incumbent who is running at less than 50% of the vote is in serious trouble. It means that a majority of the voters have decided not to vote for him or her. (Asked if you are likely to be married to the same person next year, a vote of “undecided” does not bode well for your marriage).
So here are the numbers:
August 27th Polls
Reid (D) 45 / Angle (R) 44 (Mason Dixon)
With Reid this far under 50%, Angle is likely to win.
August 26th Polls
(Currently Republican) Rubio (R) / 40 Crist (I) 30 / Meek (D) 21 (Rasmussen)
So much for Crist!
Toomey 40 (R) / Sestak (D) 31 (Franklin-Marshall)
August 25th Polls
Buck (R) 49 / Bennett (D) 40 (Reuters)
Boxer (D) 49 / Fiorina (R) 44 (Rasmussen)
Boxer has gained a bit, but still in trouble.
(Currently Republican) Vitters (R) / 51 Melancon (D) 41 (PPP)
Johnson (R) 47 / Feingold (D) 46 (Rasmussen)
Giannoulias (D) 45 / Kirk (R) 45 (Rasmussen)
August 24th polls
(Currently Republican) Blunt: 54 / Carnahan: 41 (Rasmussen)
August 21st Polls
Rossi (R) 52 / Murray (D) 45 (SurveyUSA)
August 20th Polls
Boozeman (R) 65 / Lincoln (D) 27 (Rasmussen)
This is not a typo!
The most likely results are that Republicans win the eight seats in which they now lead and also take Illinois and Nevada for a gain of ten seats and control. They also have a good shot in California and possible upsets in New York and Connecticut.