I was outraged today when I saw a Washington Post article headlined “Three Polls Show Obama Widening Lead Over Romney.” One was a poll from FOX News that showed Obama 9 points ahead. The others were surveys by CNN and Reuters showing a 7 point Obama lead. NOT TRUE!
Click Here to read the Washington Post article I am referring to.
The real numbers, of likely voters are found in the Rasmussen Polls which had Romney ahead by three yesterday and four today. Gallup, which surveys registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) has the race tied at 46-46.
There are several factors which explain the difference:
1. Obama’s voters don’t want to come out and vote for him. They are only lukewarm and are not people who always vote. Cynical and apathetic, they do not begin to approximate the intensity of the Romney voters or even of the 2008 Obama backers.
2. Black turnout is traditionally 11% of the total vote. In 2008, rose to 14%, providing Obama with more than half of his margin of victory. Current polls suggest a reversion to the pre-2008 turnout level, but polling firms that do not measure voter intention can’t tell that and weight the black vote up to 12, 13, or even 14 percent, padding Obama’s vote artificially.
3. Likewise with Latino vote which was 7% of the vote and grew to 8.5% in 2008. Their votes this time show signs of returning to historic norms
4. Polls of registered voters tend to weight up the Democratic respondents, according their opinions more weight in the poll. That’s because their data usually shows fewer Democrats in their sample than in national registration figures. But, in weighting for party, they obscure the fact that a great many registered Democrats have left the Party, particularly in the past few years, a finding that is obliterated by the weighting.
The fact is that Rasmussen and Gallup both showed drops for Romney about 4-5 days ago when negative coverage of his foreign trip (itself a sign of media bias) tended to dampen his ratings. But both have shown a recovery since. Rasmussen and Gallup poll every day. The other polls are conducted over a period of several days. So the Rasmussen and Gallup data are a few days fresher than the other polls and reflect Romney’s recovery.