The latest Fox News Poll, which shows Trump only three points behind after reporting the week before that he lagged by six and before that by seven.
But an analysis of the data indicates that the shift is animated by a big swing by white blue collar voters to Trump. White men who have only a high school education backed Trump by 16 points in the Fox News poll of one week ago, now support him by an amazing 30 points, a gain of 14 in Trump’s direction. Among women high school graduates who have no college, Trump’s margin has swelled by 7 points in the same period.
These late swings are precisely what we predicted in our book Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary. Normally, these downscale voters are the base of the Democratic Party. Because they pay less attention to the political process, they often decide only late in the race who to support. The phenomenon is known in politics as the Democrats “coming home” as they switch from undecided to the Democratic candidate in the elections’ final weeks.
But this time, they are Trump supporters and their last minute conversion to his candidacy are exactly what he needs to reverse Hillary’s momentum going into the election.
The Fox News data is convincing. In their poll of October 17th, white men who had only a high school education backed Trump by 48-32. But one week later, their support swelled to 59-29. Among similarly situated white women, Trump’s margin grew from 58-31 to 56-22, a net gain of seven points.
The shift of blue collar voters to Trump is likely to continue through Election Day and could be the factor that tips the election in the Republican’s direction.
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