Published on TheHill.com on January 30, 2008.
Some may agree with Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) positions on his myriad of causes and enthusiasms. Others may embrace Mitt Romney’s record as governor and his experience in business. But one fact remains pre-eminent — McCain has a much better chance of winning the election than does former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R).
If you feel confident, for some unknown reason, in a Republican victory, it is possible that either candidate could win. If you feel the nation is aching for a Democrat, as I do, then the importance of choosing the strongest candidate fades a bit.
But any rational observer has to conclude that John McCain has a better shot of winning than Mitt Romney does.
And, if a failure to win means the election of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), the stakes are too high to ignore the issue of political practicality in making a choice.
Perhaps because he is better known, the Arizona senator ties Hillary in the match-ups while Romney trails by up to 12 points.
But the real difference is not in their current polling performance, but in their future potential as November candidates.
Because of his immigration position — the same one that has so fouled his relationship with the Republican right — McCain has a very good shot at winning a lot of Hispanic votes. While the Clintons have always had a genuine, if now faded, popularity with blacks, they have never been able to boast of a strong Latino base. Partially because of Bill’s pardon of the FALN terrorists, Hillary swept the Puerto Rican vote in New York state in 2000, but she has no special appeal to bring to a genuine battle for their support. Romney’s hard-line immigration position will leave Latinos cold.
But McCain has a chance with them.
The bitterness of the Democratic contest leaves open the possibility of massive defections from Hillary should she be the candidate, both among blacks and whites. There will be legions of disappointed young voters if Obama eventually loses to the race-baiting Clinton machine.
McCain’s record offers much to attract these disaffected Democrats and independents. His ability to win independents where they are permitted to vote in Republican primaries attests to his appeal to swing voters.
McCain’s co-sponsorship with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) of legislation to prevent global warming, his opposition to torture or waterboarding in terrorist interrogations, his support for campaign finance reform, his backing for regulation of tobacco by the Food and Drug Administration, his suggestion of serious corporate governance reforms in the wake of the Enron scandal, and his crusade against earmarking by Congress all put him squarely in position to win disaffected moderates, Democrats, and independents.
He clearly would dominate the national security issue as the Republican nominee in a way that Romney, without the relevant experience, could never do. Particularly in opposing a female liberal candidate amid a global war against terror that could heat up at any moment, this is no inconsiderable advantage.
Hillary’s phony experience argument, which she could still maintain vis-à-vis Romney, would be hollow against McCain. And while Obama could point to a significant gap in their ages, Clinton, only 10 years his junior, could not effectively make age an issue against McCain.
Obviously, McCain’s strong support for the war in Iraq would be a point of contention and vulnerability in a general election against Clinton. But his support of the surge, and its evident effectiveness in reducing combat casualties, might well give him the better of the argument in front of a moderate general electorate.
It is only on the economy that McCain has a self-proclaimed (if inadvisably so) weakness. But Hillary would be overreaching dramatically if she claimed special expertise on this issue merely through the osmosis that she claims to be a feature of living in the White House. Her tax increase proposals, particularly her support for a higher capital gains tax, can be painted, accurately, as foreshadowing doom for the economy. Neither Hillary nor McCain can claim the economy as an especial preserve.
Can Romney? Inexplicably, the McCain campaign has not spoken of the layoffs that must have accompanied Romney’s efforts to “turn around” failing companies. Hedge funds are notorious for cutting jobs and the Clintons will make Mitt eat every single one. McCain has no such vulnerability and, hopefully, will make Romney’s layoffs an issue before Super Tuesday.
So McCain can win and Romney won’t. That’s the long and the short of it.
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Comments
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With your personal experience with the Clinton’s, and the abuse you have witnessed and endured- you have been the one voice with both the credibility and experience to expose this pair of Machiavellians for who they really are. Finally, your voice has begun to resonate, people are waking up from their slumber and are beginning to see through the illusions, charms, showmanship, and sleight of hand the Clintons have been entertaining and fooling our country with all along.
I am hopeful and seeing signs that the suspension of disbelief has begun to lift and we are seeing just how insidious the Clinton game unfolds just as you have been speaking all along.
As I see how easy it was to knock Rudy out of the game so quickly (among Republicans) for his moral failings, it is painfully obvious how Romney will be summarily cross cut shredded by the Clintons if he gains the Republican nod. Romney has too many things the Clintons can dig their talons into and vivisect his presidential bid piece by piece. He has no chance of a head-to-head presidential bid against Hillary.
Although McCain is not my idealized candidate, I cannot stand by with my single vote and allow a 3rd Clinton term. A vote for our most conservative candidate in Romney, is handing the country over to the democrats most liberal one.
Dick, I believe you on this one — Romney has no chance against Hillary and only McCain can stop her and reverse the countries desire for winds of change and a democrat as it’s next presidential candidate.
Deep conservatives are going to have to bite the bullet on this one, or all of us with strong conservative ideals are going to pay a hefty price- we all know what will happen when she gets elected for it will be Bill and Hillary running the show once more.
(I realize I’m not touching on the Obama factor in this post) only on the candidates that have commited to a party. I look forward to seeing what lies next as Hillary’s mistep in SC has dropped her plus 10 point lead and evened Obama’s odds against her in Flordia.
Thank you Mr. Morris for keeping us posted, informed and keeping our eyes open to the Clinton strategy and how we can prevent them from another term in office.
–dan
Dick: You fail to realize that people in the GOP don’t like McCain — they don’t even consider him apart of it.
Hopefully, the conservative movement and America is moving to the center. The far-right is non-effective, if not dead. The proof of this is the right’s inability to defeat or even deter the American Liberal Machine (ALM) that has successfully and thoroughly vilified President Bush. The ALM’s unchallenged ability to sway American (and world) opinion, such as their successful Anti-Christian campaign that successfully labeled Bush a mindless follower of Christ. And their successful “Bush Lied” campaign. For the past 7 years where was the Far-right during all the incessant attacks by the ALM on President Bush?
Dick, you are the best political analyst out there. Kudos for breaking the Clinton race-baiting strategy in S.C. - pure genius. OK, I have been in the investment business for 14 years, just a small correction for you that will make one piece of your analysis on Romney more financially literate. You wrote and have said “hedge funds are notorious for cutting jobs” when talking about Romney. Change “hedge funds” to “private equity funds”. What’s the difference? For the most part hedge funds buy and sell stocks and rarely get involved with management decisions. Private Equity firms - which is what Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital does - often are involved with takeovers or buying big stakes and are very much about getting involved with management, doing “turnaround strategies”, “operational improvements”, “synergies” etc. which often involve firing people. I have not looked at the deals Romney was on, but I guess you are right that someone could make the “Gordon Gecco case” if they wanted to. Thanks and keep the great analysis coming.
This campaign is better than watching “Amazing Race”. I am a conservative/independent and I believe we occupy a lot more space in the general population than the “Rush Limbaugh” extreme right. I also feel the presence of significant numbers of liberal/independents disenchanted with the Clinton option. Because we lacked an organized voice being neither welcome as Republicans or Democrats we have had to suffer as America was dragged down down through 7 years of unconscionable deficit budgets, an war on terror fought in the wrong country, a precipitous drop of respect for Amercia around the world, a laissez faire approach to the enforcement of laws the administration found inconvenient, and the relegation of our Constitution to an inconvenient obstacle in the way of the trampling of our rights as Americans. Just for the record I personal find the polar complement on the left just as distasteful. I for one will be voting for McCain in our primary and hopefully in the election. I believe most closely represents the desires of the vast majority of Americans who cannot relate to either the extremes of the Republican and Democratic parties. I see HRC as vulnerable simply because, as she and Bill have amply demonstrated, they are divisive and polarizing. The will divide the country further if they get the White House. I seem McCain as the only candidate with a hope in hell of getting America back on a track the vast majority of Americans want.
I am so disappointed at the dismissive attitude the GOP and their pundits have conveyed upon the best candidate in this race Mike Huckabee. Romney despite his huge financial advantage and substantial backing from the conservative talking heads gets beaten by McCain by 5pts is still considered a contender when the week before in SC, McCain topped Huckabee by only 3% {with the spoiler sleepy Fred Thompson in race to take away votes from Huckabee} and everyone assumes if Mike can’t win in the South, he must be finished. Can’t anyone see what’s going on here?
I do not in anyway attempt to diminish what McCain has accomplished since he also has faced a struggle with the GOP. At the same time, he has shown great admiration toward Huckabee because they are “brother-in-arms” in a struggle to convince the hardliners it’s OK to broaden the tent of our constituency without having to compromise our core values.
There is little doubt in my mind if McCain is the nominee, he will ask Mike Huckabee to be his VP.
That said, I still believe Mike has a great chance to win the nomination as more and more voters hear his message in the debate process. His appeal to the regular person has the same excitement as Obama; the only difference is the publicity surrounding the charisma.
Old war horses like the Kennedy’s have been caught up in excitement Obama has created with his appeal even though politically he is a much less experienced candidate than the Clinton machine. Republican’s have longed for a speaker in the mold of a Ronald Reagan who had the ability as well to mesmerize an audience. They have such a person in Mike Huckabee and they are too blind to see.
Fortunately for us -the electorate - Mike Huckabee is continuing on with his army of believers and a message of hope & change. This evening, once again he will electrify the listeners with his common sense approach to serious issues around us. This nomination process is far from over and eventually some reporter so where ( and I hope it is you Dick Morris ) will see the light and review the enormous success Huckabee has had already in his quest for this nomination.
Randy Whitman
Toledo, Ohio