Stop the presses! The very latest polling data from California indicates a sharp trend for Obama and against Hillary. Preliminary indications in other states are that the trend is very widespread and not just concentrated on the west coast.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen’s three day tracking survey, conducted on January 28-30, shows Hillary with a bare and dwindling 3 point lead over Obama in California. He has Hillary at 43%, Obama at 40%, and Edwards (two of the three days were before he dropped out) at 9%. This data compares with a 20 point plus Hillary margin in most polls in California just a few weeks ago.
Published in the New York Post on January 30, 2008.
After the Florida primary, John McCain is the clear front-runner in the Republican primaries, the first we’ve had since Rudy Giuliani vacated the role.
Underscoring his victory is a fascinating fact newly evident, now that we have had a Republican primary in a state which did not permit Independents to participate: The GOP primary electorate isn’t very conservative.
Published on TheHill.com on January 30, 2008.
Some may agree with Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) positions on his myriad of causes and enthusiasms. Others may embrace Mitt Romney’s record as governor and his experience in business. But one fact remains pre-eminent – McCain has a much better chance of winning the election than does former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R).
If you feel confident, for some unknown reason, in a Republican victory, it is possible that either candidate could win. If you feel the nation is aching for a Democrat, as I do, then the importance of choosing the strongest candidate fades a bit.
Published in the New York Post on January 29, 2008.
What does Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama really mean?
In addition to seriously boosting Obama’s chances for the Democratic nomination by anointing him as the generational heir to John F. Kennedy, there’s something else that’s just as important for the body politic: Kennedy, Obama and the voters of South Carolina may have tolled the death knell for the Clintons’ reprehensible politics of personal destruction.
It’s about time.
Barack Obama used his victory in South Carolina to change the dialogue with the Clintons in the presidential race. He has taken Hillary’s and Bill’s attempt to use the race issue and replied with a clever move. He has basically called their bluff.
And Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama has ratified the Illinois Senator’s strategy and candidacy.
So far, to summarize: Move One was when Obama arrived as a new candidate. Move two was Hillary’s comeback that she is more experienced. Move three was when Obama pivoted off her experience message and said he was the voice of change. Move four was the Clintons’ attempt to inject race into the election. They counted on a racial split in South Carolina to make Super Tuesday about a black/white division.
The greatest tactical mistake in recent politics — Giuliani’s inexplicable decision to avoid the early primaries — is about to destroy his once hopeful presidential prospects. That so superb a candidate should be destroyed by the political ignorance of his handlers is truly tragic.
Published on FoxNews.com on January 25, 2008.
Unfortunately, I’ve seen it all before.
That picture of the seething, red-faced former president of the United States shaking his finger at members of the press who dare to question his wife’s slimy campaign tactics, is all too familiar to those who have worked closely with him in the past.
Like Janus, the two-faced Roman god, there are always been two distinct personalities in Bill Clinton. That charming, smiling gentleman seen in public is too often eclipsed in private by his negative twin evidenced in the eruption of a furious, unexpected, and uncontrollable rage, often accompanied by loud cursing and occasionally, even physical violence. It’s not a pretty picture.
Mitt Romney, locked in a dead heat with John McCain, is likely to benefit from the withdrawal of Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee’s inability to advertise in Florida. With one conservative out and the other hobbled, he is left more or less alone to face a divided moderate vote that will split between Giuliani and McCain.
With Florida having the third largest state delegation and using a winner-take-all formula, a victory here could be major for Romney.
Published on TheHill.com on January 23, 2008.
Hillary Clinton will undoubtedly lose the South Carolina primary as African-Americans line up to vote for Barack Obama. And that defeat will power her drive to the nomination.
The Clintons are encouraging the national media to disregard the whites who vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary and focus on the black turnout, which is expected to be quite large. They have transformed South Carolina into Washington, D.C. -an all-black primary that tells us how the African-American vote is going to go.
Published in the New York Post on January 22, 2008.
Why is Bill Clinton courting such intense publicity, inevitably much of it negative?
Is he crazy? Crazy like a fox.
He has two goals and is achieving them both spectacularly.
First, he wants to be the same kind of lightning rod for Hillary that she was for him during his run for the presidency.