The Rasmussen poll, ended on April 26, 2007, shows Obama beating Hillary, albeit by the slim margin of 32-30. This is, of course, the first national poll among Democratic candidates that shows Obama in the lead. Rasmussen, whose polls seem to be one step ahead of everybody else’s, has the candidates tied two weeks ago and has shown Obama creeping up with each survey.
The sense of Hillary’s inevitability is gone. Now how will the game play out.
The key will be whether or not Obama votes against the war funding compromise that Pelosi and Reid seem to be negotiating with the White House. If he goes along with the language that will emerge and which will serve only to provoke the left, he will let Edwards monopolize the anti-war vote (assuming Hillary also votes no). But if Obama votes against the funding compromise, he will become the hero of the left, uniting the anti-Hillary vote with the anti-war vote and the pro-black vote and he may craft a solid majority for himself.