How The Race Stacks Up From Here

By Dick Morris on March 14, 2012

Romney is on track to win the nomination when the primaries and caucuses are over on June 6th.

Currently, Romney has 498 of the 1,144 he needs to be nominated. He now has 53% of the selected delegates, a clip he has been maintaining since the start of the process. Santorum has 25%, Gingrich 15%, and Paul 7%.

CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT
Romney 498 53%
Santorum 239 25%
Gingrich 139 15%
Paul 69 7%

Romney is very likely to win the following winner-take-all primaries:

LIKELY ROMNEY WINNER TAKE ALL WINS
Puerto Rico 23
DC 19
Maryland 37
Connecticut 28
Delaware 17
Rhode Island 19
Oregon 28
Cal 172
Montana 25
NJ 50
Utah 40

458

+ 498 (current Romney)

______________________

956 TOTAL

In addition, Romney will probably win these winner take all states:

Wisconsin 42
Indiana 46
West Virginia 31
Nebraska 35
South Dakota 28

182

+ 956

______________

1,138

Finally, Romney will probably do very well in the following proportional representation states. Some, like New York and Illinois, award most of their delegates as a winner take all by Congressional District .

P.R. State Delegates / Prob Romney
New York 95 / 80
Illinois 69 / 45
Maine 24 / 20
New Mexico 23 / 15

160

+ 1,138

______________

1,298

Needed to Nominate: 1,144

So, even if Romney loses the winner take all primaries in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and gets clobbered in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and a few other conservative states, he should win the nomination by the time the primaries are over on June 6th.

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