ELECTION NIGHT ANALYSIS

By Dick Morris on November 4, 2008

9:22 PM EST.

OHIO IS CURTAINS

The FoxNews decision to call Ohio for Obama virtually guarantees a victory for the Democrat. If FoxNews is correct, the election is over. Florida still remains in play with Obama clinging to a 3 point lead with half the vote counted. It would appear that Obama is going to win although not by the margins that had been predicted.

8:55 PM EST.

THE BRADLEY EFFECT IS HAPPENING

FoxNews reports that exit polls are 5-10 points more pro-Obama than the actual vote. This election could be very, very close.

8:45 PM EST.

THE POLLS WERE WRONG.

One thing is clear: The polls were wrong!!!

Obama may still win but he is not winning by the margins the polls predicted. In state after state, it is obvious that McCain is doing better than he was predicted. The exit polls also appear to be wrong.

Until we see how McCain does in North Carolina and Florida (he has to win both to win the election) we cannot see how the race will go nationally, but it is clear that this is no blowout as the polls had predicted

8:38 PM EST

ALL EYES ON FLORIDA

In Florida, Obama is ahead. He is leading by 5 with 40% in. But he had been ahead by 11%. With McCain doing better than expected in Kentucky and Virginia and perhaps in Georgia, it looks good for him, but Florida is the fly in the ointment. Keep focused on Florida. See if McCain continues to close.

8:31 PM EST.

COULD GO EITHER WAY

Right now, here is the situation:

McCain is doing 4 points worse than he should in Indiana (40% in)

McCain is doing 7 pts better than he should in Virginia (35% in)

McCain is doing 6 pts worse than he should in Fla (35% in)

McCain is doing 7 pts better than he should in Kentucky (40% in)

8:06 PM EST.

CONTRADICTORY INDICATIONS

If you look at Virginia and Kentucky, it looks like a narrow McCain victory. If you look at Florida and Indiana, it looks like a big Obama win. All four states have less than a quarter of the vote in, so we can’t jump to conclusions.

In Virginia, with 19% of the vote in, McCain is winning by 13%. That’s about ten points better than it should be for McCain. In Kentucky, with 23% in, McCain is winning by 15. That’s about six points better than it should be for McCain.

But in Florida, with 13% in, Obama is winning by 11 points, which is eleven points better than it should be for Obama. And in Indiana, McCain is winning by only 3% with 25% in. That’s six points less than it should be.

On Senate races, Sue Collins’ win in Maine is important. That indicates perhaps that the Dems won’t reach 60 votes.

7:31 PM EST.

CONTRADICTORY INFORMATION FROM INDIANA AND KENTUCKY

A Republican is supposed to carry Indiana and Kentucky. If he ties in the national race, he is supposed to win each of these two states by nine points apiece. So what is happening? With 13% of the vote in, McCain is winning Indiana by three points, five less than he should. But he is winning Kentucky, with 14% of the vote in, by 11 points, two points more than he should. We need to watch these two states closely. Once half or more of the vote is in and we can begin to figure out what is happening, they should give us a clue to what is happening nationally.

Kentucky could be biased against Obama because of his comments that surfaced over the weekend about bankrupting the coal industry, but let’s watch these two states to figure out what is going on.

7:04 PM EST.

EARLY KENTUCKY RESULTS INDICATE BIG NATIONAL WIN FOR OBAMA

Only 9% of Kentucky results are in but Fox News is predicting that McCain will win Kentucky by three points. That is horrible news for McCain. In a national race that is tied, the Republican should be carrying Kentucky by 9 points. If McCain is winning it by only three, it indicates a possible national loss in the neighborhood of 6 points.

6:41 PM EST.

HUGE OBAMA WIN POSSIBLE

Based on the very early exit polling, it looks like a huge Obama win. I don’t have access to exit polls but Fox News reported that white men in Indiana voted for McCain by ten points. That probably means that he is tied among white women. That means he is probably losing Indiana by 2-3 points. A republican who is tied nationally should win Indiana by 9 points. So this would suggest a 12 point Obama margin. Very early but I’ll have more once a state closes its polls and the tallies begin. It is possible, from one or two states, to project the national voting.

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Please leave a comment below - I would love to hear what you think! Thanks, Dick
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