OBAMA’S MONEY WON’T BE KEY FACTOR
Obama sent shock waves through political circles when announced on Monday that he had amassed $150 million in campaign contributions in September, giving him upwards of $600 million for his campaign. While his fund raising makes a mockery of McCain’s paltry $100 million in taxpayer funded campaign money, the real advantage to Obama in the election is not likely to be decisive.
Obama is, of course, still the front runner. But McCain is closing hard as the race enters its second to last week. If Obama ultimately wins, it will have a lot more to do with the Dow Jones than with his level of campaign funding. Even if we assume his October funding brings him to even more dizzying heights, the realities of modern politics will limit the advantage that will accrue to his campaign.
A WHOLE NEW GAME: PLUMBER’S GIFT TO MCCAIN
Published in the New York Post on October 18, 2008
Ronald Reagan’s most important contribution to the American political dialogue was his ability to move the tax issue from an economic-populist issue into a populist, blue-collar one. Under George W. Bush, however, the issue has switched back to one of class warfare, as increasing numbers of Americans have paid no taxes at all and the rates on those who did pay taxes fell. Now, a chance encounter with “Joe the Plumber” has afforded the Republicans the chance to use taxes as a blue-collar issue.
MCCAIN CLOSING GAP
While we don’t know the impact of the last debate, the polling indicates that McCain has been able to close the gap with Obama markedly in the past week. Realclearpolitics.com lists six polls with a field date ending on 10-13. Their average gave Obama a margin of 8.3%. There are seven subsequent surveys with a field date ending on 10-16 and their average is an Obama lead of 5.1. The seven polls whose field date ended on the 16th only include one night of post debate polling (usually of a three night sample). As the next few days of polling comes in, the situation should clarify itself.
MAC’S SHOT AT A LATE-GAME WIN
Published in the The New York Post on October 16, 2008
The short term impact of the third debate will be to help Barack Obama. But the long term implications may give John McCain a needed boost. Obama looked good, but McCain opened the tax-and-spend issue in a way that might prevail.
Obama took the worst that McCain could hand out and came out looking good. McCain was the more aggressive debater, but Obama looked like the better president. The constants of the debate remained. Obama is smoother, prettier, younger and more presidential. But McCain had a feisty appeal, a Trumanesque approach that may resonate in these times of anger and unrest.
THE NUTS AT ACORN COULD CAUSE OBAMA’S FALL
Published on TheHill.com on October 15, 2008
As Obama lengthens his lead, the Republicans are praying that the election becomes close enough for the Democrats to steal. But meanwhile, ACORN, the radical community group, is becoming an embarrassment for Obama. It is not as if its shenanigans are likely to tip the result, with the Democrats so far ahead. But as it is raided by the FBI in state after state (11 so far), it is becoming identified as the electoral equivalent of Greenpeace, extremists who will stop at nothing to get their way.
VOTER HATRED OF WALL STREET: AS EXPLAINED BY FDR
If the crash of 1929 and that of 2008 are similar, then let’s study the voter anger that 1929 kindled to inform our understanding of what is going on today. In the thirties, voters turned sharply against their former Wall Street heroes and the name of big business20became mud for millions who felt misled by greedy financiers and took it out on the Republican Party.
To grasp what happened then and is happening now, look at the first inaugural address remarks of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He gave voice to the angst and anger of the times and gave us a clue to understanding what is going on today.
DOW = GALLUP; MCCAIN’S PROBLEM
For McCain to win this election (which he still can) the furor over the stock market will have to calm down so that popular attention can focus on Barack Obama. For all of the deluge of media that has engulfed the American people, they can only keep one subject on their mind. All media has only one focus at a time. And, if you are in the spotlight, you are almost certain to self-destruct.
MCCAIN’S MISSING KO PUNCH
Published in the The New York Post on October 8, 2008
John McCain probably won last night’s debate on points – but he needed a knockout, and he didn’t get it.
His proposal to help homeowners by buying their mortgages was well articulated. He also scored well on entitlements and, as always, emerged ahead on foreign policy.
But Obama dodged and weaved his way out of trouble.
McCain failed to rebut patently absurd claims – like Obama’s claim to favor nuclear power, his “plan” to cut taxes on 95 percent of Americans and his charge that McCain would shower CEOs with new tax breaks.
