A massive shift in younger and older voters is roiling the presidential race according to new data from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll concluded October 28-29. Younger voters — under 45 — once Obama’s base, now are evenly divided between the two candidates. But voters over 65 have shifted sharply to the Democrat in the past week.
Voters under 45 supported Obama by 52-38 in the Fox News poll of October 21-22. But this week’s survey indicates that they now break evenly with 45% supporting Obama and 46% backing McCain. On the other hand, voters 65 and over, who had backed Obama by 46-42 last week have now shifted decisively in his favor and he now leads McCain among seniors by 54-39. Middle aged voters — aged 45-64 — are largely unchanged in their views. Last week they backed Obama by 48-40 and this week they still support him by 48-43.
Overall, the Fox News survey shows McCain narrowing Obama’s lead from 49-40 (9 points) to 47-44 (3 points) over the past week.
The shift in the attitudes of young people may be directly related to the tax issue, brought home by a McCain advertisement featuring Joe the Plumber. Younger voters, trying to make their way in their careers, are more sensitive to changes in taxes than older people, many of whom has retired from the labor force. By attacking Obama for wanting to “spread the wealth around”, the McCain camp seems to have struck a nerve among those who are entering the most productive years of their employment history.
On the other hand, seniors may be more comfortable with Obama than they have been previously and might be more accepting of his candidacy. Obama’s attacks on McCain over Social Security, always a sensitive topic for the elderly may also be hitting home driving seniors into the Democratic column.
The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey was conducted on October 28-29 and surveyed 924 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
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More than a subtle change in NJ
There seems to be a more than subtle shift going on here in NJ…We actually feel what the polls are showing - some sworn Obama folks are considering the cost of change - seems like the undecided group is growing. Also feels like the leaning-McCain gro…
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Dick,
I support John McCain for President but no matter what the polls may indicate, I can’t quite see him winning this election. I think the cards are stacked way-high against him this time. McCain faces overwhelming odds trying to defeat an opponent who has managed a much more efficient campaign, who has raised much more money, and who has been given a pass by the national media. This was never McCain’s race to win; it was always Barry Obama’s race to lose.
Perhaps this has always been the Republican strategy. Concede the White House in 2008 and let the Democrats commit Party suicide by 2012. The intervening congressional election in 2010 will be an obvious referendum on Obama and could usher the Republican Party back into power.
Displaying bipartisanship is only one of Barry Obama’s challenges following inauguration. Before he even takes office, Barry Obama will have to stand up to a Democratic Party already out of control and operating as if it has a mandate from the American people. He will fail the test as he has before.
No doubt we are seeing the crescendo of the left just before they go super nova and fade into political obliteration.
Mike Helton
Anchorage, Alaska
[…] his strong suit. So he makes up facts and pretends to see the future. What about his ability to grasp demographic trends? The shift in the attitudes of young people may be directly related to the tax issue, brought home […]