HOW MCCAIN CAN PROSPER IN BAD ECONOMY
The Wall Street mess now takes center stage in the presidential race. With company after company biting the dust, can John McCain survive as the representative of the incumbent party?
So far, McCain has focused on a populist criticism of Wall Street and its irresponsibility, firing away at corporate greed and lending practices.
CANDIDATE AND PARTY: THE OBAMA DEFICIT
Published on TheHill.com on September 16, 2008
There appears to be a gap of between 10 and 20 points between how voters see the parties and what they think of the candidates. Between one-tenth and one-fifth of America’s voters feel that the Democratic Party would be the best for the country but like the McCain-Palin ticket better.
GOP’S GAINING
Published in the The New York Post on September 15, 2008
The two party conventions and the trend of recent events have moved America more toward the Republican Party than it has been at any time this year, data from the latest Fox News survey suggest. The nation still trends Democratic, but less so than it has during this entire election season.
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY Volume 1, #36
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY
Volume 1, #36
September 15, 2008
OBAMA AND WOMEN: AN UNHAPPY COURTSHIP
Obama has never gone out of his way to relate to women. Only seven of his top twenty Senate staff positions are filled by women (McCain has thirteen of twenty) and women on Obama’s staff earn 83 cents for each dollar his male staffers are paid. (McCain pays his female staffers $1.04 for each dollar he pays to his men).
From the very first moment Obama entered the presidential race, feminists resented him for trying to stop Hillary from becoming the first woman to be elected president. In the minds of feminists, the fifteenth Amendment (giving blacks the vote) competed with the nineteenth (women’s suffrage) for national attention. Even though women had to wait more than fifty years longer than African-Americans to get the vote, feminists were in no mood to let a black man get elected in place of a white woman, especially if her name was Hillary Clinton.
Clearly the Obama/Clinton race triggered ill feelings among many women and laid the basis for the problems Obama was to have in the general election. He won the nomination by beating a woman and then hoped to capitalize on the votes of women to get elected in November. As the race developed, the elbows got sharper and the rhetoric of both sides seemed to emphasize race and gender more and more. Hillary appealed for the votes of “white working people” while Obama lambasted and ridiculed her defense of guns by calling her “Annie Oakley.”
Although Obama always spoke of Hillary respectfully in public, it was clear to all voters that some ill will had crept into their relationship. After the primaries, Hillary postponed her concession for at least a week as pressure built on her to step aside. For his part, Obama seemed to snub Hillary, passing up opportunities to meet her and doing little to help her raise funds to pay off her campaign debt.
As it became clearer that he was not about to select Hillary for vice-president, the mutual animosity seemed to escalate. Obama made it clear that he would not even consider Hillary for vice president, ostentatiously refusing to vet her or to include her on his short list of candidates.
By early July, even as Obama led McCain in the polls, it was evident that his drawing power among women was dwindling. The downhill progression of that relationship and the steps the Republicans took to hasten its demise, may explain the true turning point of the 2008 election.
Rejected for vice-president, Hillary bargained hard for an optimum role at the Democratic convention, insisting loudly -through her spokespeople – on the right to be placed in nomination, have a roll call, and address the convention in prime time. She also asked that Bill be permitted to speak on a separate night. Conscious that he was incurring flack from her supporters for not putting her on the ticket, Obama gave in on all these seemingly cosmetic issues, affording Hillary just the platform she sought at the convention.
But after Obama nominated Joe Biden for vice president, Hillary’s extensive exposure at the convention began to backfire on Obama. When Mrs. Clinton delivered a magnificent convention speech, the best of her life, everybody in the hall wondered about the same collective question: Why had she not been chosen?
In reality, Bill probably had more to do with Hillary absence from the ticket than did the Senator herself. Unwilling to have to explain why the former president would not release the names of his library donors, Obama did not relish having to be held accountable for the former president’s shady financial dealings in Kazakhstan or Dubai. Aware that putting Hillary on the ticket would sign him up for a political “Ménage à trois”, Obama wisely demurred.
Hillary had so infiltrated the convention that it had the ring of a Clinton convention throughout its first three days. Only when it moved from the Pepsi Center to Invesco Field for Obama’s acceptance speech on the fourth and final day, did it acquire the hallmarks of Obama’s convention. When Biden spoke – failing to excite the crowd as Hillary had done – the convention became fixated on why Hillary was not on the ticket.
Party faithful and activists fell in line after Obama spoke, but the scars among female voters lingered on.
The polling reflected that Obama did not fall uniformly short among all women. He carried women under the age of 40 by large margins. But polls indicated that McCain was actually ahead of him among female voters over 40 by 4 points. Most Democratic candidates since 1976 had scored more than ten points better among middle aged and older women than among men of the same age.
MCCAIN FINESSES OBAMA
Then the McCain campaign pulled off one of the most successful head fakes in modern American politics. Obama had to decide not only whether or not to choose Hillary, but whether to go with another woman, likely Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. Had he opted for either woman, the odds are that he would have won the election, but McCain out maneuvered him. Through leaks and judiciously planted stories, the McCain campaign convinced Obama and his people that the Republicans were going to nominate a man – Romney, Lieberman, or Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty – instead of Sarah Palin who they had, in fact, been eyeing for the job for weeks and weeks before.
For his part, Obama wanted to believe that McCain would pick a boring man because he did not want Hillary on his ticket and did not dare go around her to choose Sebelius. The conventional wisdom among Democratic pols was that Obama would have triggered a floor fight and a revolution had he chosen a woman other than Hillary. Nonsense. Had Obama tapped Sebelius, Hillary would have had to grin and hail the advance for feminism. To do otherwise would be to admit that she placed her personal ambition ahead of her support for her gender, something which, while obviously true, she could never admit. Her supporters, more true feminists than true Hillary backers, would have been seduced by Sebelius’ speech and the hoopla surrounding her designation and would have been enthusiastic. Only a few top level men in Hillary’ milieu, inscluding one former president, would have been grumpy about the choice.
But with McCain meeting with Romney and Pawlenty and floating rumors about them, it seemed that Obama could go ahead and name Biden without fear that the Republicans would embarrass him by naming a woman for their ticket.
After all, Obama’s people reasoned, who would McCain pick? Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison – floated out there consciously as a decoy for Palin – was old and dull and had been indicted (although acquitted) in 1993. She seemed an unlikely choice. Palin? Are you kidding they must have asked? McCain wouldn’t do it.
But McCain did. And he did so right in the middle of Obama’s post convention bounce from his excellent speech. The Friday news fell like a wet blanket over the memories of the carnival like atmosphere at Invesco Field the night before. And Obama’s woman problem just got worse.
THE DEMOCRATS FALL INTO MCCAIN’S TRAP
But then the Democrats compounded the error by attacking Palin and doing so on personal, gender based issues, no less. It was a gift to the Republicans even their most sophisticated strategists could not have anticipated. And what was the leading charge against Palin? That her daughter was pregnant and not married!
McCain wisely told the media that Sarah had informed him of the situation before he offered her the job and that he said it would make no difference in his decision. In one stroke, the Democrats undid all the good for themselves they had accomplished in decades of support for welfare, food stamps, day care, rent subsidies, headstart programs, and abortion. By seeming to suggest that a woman should be disqualified because her daughter was pregnant and unmarried was a slap in the face of the tens of millions of Democratic single women voters upon whom the party depended for its fabled gender gap.
Suddenly, the party roles were reversed. McCain, tolerant of Sarah’s personal decisions, was the wise, open minded one, while the Democrats were the narrow minded, harsh, judgmental party. When personal attack followed upon attack women of all ages and backgrounds rallied to Sarah’s defense and were appalled by the Democratic tactics. But the charges kept on coming: Sarah’s husband had a twenty year old DWI. Her sister and brother in law were going through a messy divorce and she had gotten him fired as a state trooper (after learning that he tazered his son and threatened her family’s life. One tabloid is rumored to be working on a story that her kids use drugs (this in a race where the Democratic candidate admitted using cocaine through his college years).
And then Sarah Palin spoke at the convention. The Democratic attacks had so hyped her speech that it drew 34 million viewers -ten million more than Hillary or Biden had attracted and only one million less than Obama himself had gotten the previous Thursday night. Her speech was magnificent. Forceful, confident, funny, firm, sarcastic but not shrill, she drove her way into everybody’s heart. Now, against the backdrop of Palins speech, the Democratic attacks seemed sexist and dirty. And, with Obama having turned up his nose at Hillary for vice president, women began to wonder if he was not anti-woman.
Finally, when Obama chose to play off Sarah Palin’s comparison of a pit bull with a hockey mom (the only difference, she said, is lipstick) by saying that you could put lipstick on a pig but it would still be a pig, Obama had a huge gender problem. And one that isn’t likely to go away anytime soon.
And who has been silent during the whole process? Not heard from defending Obama or criticizing Palin? Hillary Rodham Clinton has stood back and let her conqueror twist slowly in the wind all by himself.
Hillary’s slogan if Obama loses because women wouldn’t back him? I told you so!
THANK YOU!
***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2008. REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION ONLY***
WHY SHE REALLY SCARES THEM
Published in The New York Post on September 12, 2008
For two weeks, Democrats and their media allies have leveled scorching fire at Sarah Palin. It’s not having much effect, but they keep at it anyway.
The latest Fox News poll shows Palin with a 54-27 favorable/unfavorable ratio, which compares well with Barack Obama’s 57-36, John McCain’s 60-33 and Joe Biden’s 51-29. (Of the four, she’s the most popular).
OBAMA VS. OBAMA
Published on TheHill.com on September 9, 2008
Now that the conventions are over, it is evident that the battle of John McCain is over (McCain won) and the battle of Barack Obama will determine the outcome of the election.
Now that McCain has definitively, and I suspect irreversibly, separated himself from Bush, he has become an acceptable alternative to Obama for voters seeking change. The question now is whether Obama’s extra quotient of change – or the different direction that change will take – is worth the risk of electing him.
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY Volume 1, #35
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY
Volume 1, #35
September 8, 2008
…..AFTER THE CONVENTIONS
To read the polls, you wouldn’t think much changed after the two party conventions. Held back to back, Obama and the Democrats moved up during their gathering and then appear to have lost all of their gains during the Republican convention. For John McCain and his party, the nomination of Sarah Palin certainly energized his followers, but he seems to face the same tied race after the exchange of conventions that he faced before them.
But, beneath the surface poll data, the post-convention environment has indeed altered dramatically in McCain’s direction.
Obama’s failure to nominate Hillary for vice president and McCain’s bold gamble in turning to Sarah Palin have put the female vote more into play than it ever was before the conventions. Going into the convention period, Obama was trailing among female voters over forty by four points – an unheard of posture for a Democratic candidate for president. Normally, a Democrat will win women over forty by more than ten points. Oddly, the Democratic nominee is running well ahead among women under 40 and is doing about as well among men of all ages as a Republican should – he’s losing them by a little. But among middle aged and older women, he was in deep trouble even before the conventions.
But the conventions dug Obama into a much deeper hole among female voters. Three factors appear to have contributed to his problems:
- He passed over Hillary Clinton for vice president without so much as a glance in her direction. She was not vetted or even considered. Yet polls showed that most Democrats wanted an Obama-Clinton ticket. When Hillary gave a great speech at the Democratic convention, the yearning to have her on the ticket was palpable on the floor of the convention. Had Obama opted for Hillary, he would undoubtedly have come to regret it. All of Bill’s dirty laundry about his financial dealings since the presidency would have become fair game. And, if he were elected, the west wing would soon have become a war zone. But he was already suspect among older women because he had challenged and defeated the candidate they overwhelmingly favored for the presidency and, by stiffing her for the vice presidency as well, he appeared to give the needs and concerns of women short shrift.
- When McCain named Sarah Palin he capitalized on the resentment of women toward Obama over his treatment of Hillary. That McCain sought their votes and was catering to their concerns was obvious in his selection of the Alaska governor. But the juxtaposition of Obama’s choice of Biden, when Hillary was available, and McCain’s reaching over the heads of Romney and other possible nominees to tap Sarah Palin did the Democrats no good.
- But all of these currents were exacerbated by the concentrated and highly personal fire directed at Palin by the media and the Democrats after her selection. Accused of everything from neglecting her children to subjecting her daughter to scandal, she and her family were scorched by a Democratic-leaning media. News of Sarah’s husband’s DWI twenty years ago, the marital fight between Sarah’s sister and brother-in-law, and the false rumor that Sarah had a list of books she wanted banned in Alaska all made their way through the Internet within hours of her designation. Women resented this ordeal by fire and were, in turn, enthused by Sarah’s speech at the convention. The fire directed at her hyped the ratings of the speech and Sarah found herself speaking to almost as many people as Obama had watching during his acceptance speech.
By the time the dust settled, McCain had a solid shot at closing or even reversing the gender gap that has been a fact of American political life ever since the Roe v Wade decision in the early 70s.
But the convention altered the strategic construct of the race dramatically as well. The premise of the entire Obama attack on McCain was that he was just an extension of the Bush Administration. Speaker after speaker at the Democratic convention hammered at the theme that a McCain first term would really be a Bush third term.
McCain set out to disprove this contention and sever the linkage between Bush’s unpopular presidency and his candidacy. And he succeeded brilliantly. From his poignant biography with its heroic story of his POW days, to his selection of a reform-minded woman as his running mate, to his acceptance speech and the supporting speeches of Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Joe Lieberman, McCain painted the differences between himself and Bush in vivid colors.
He debunked the Obama claim that Bush and McCain voted together 90% of the time by pointing out that 90% of the Senate votes are unanimous. He highlighted the various areas of his disagreement with Bush over the years. These include:
- McCain backed the surge when Bush was resistant
- McCain backed tough regulation of tobacco and most Republicans opposed it
- McCain fought for a ban on torture in terrorist investigations over Administration objections.
- McCain opposes earmarks and refuses to propose any
- McCain has harshly criticized Bush’s spending policies and his budget deficits
- McCain wanted tougher corporate governance reforms and protection of worker pensions.
- McCain submitted tough climate change and energy independence legislation, co-sponsored by Lieberman that Bush opposed.
- McCain was the author of campaign finance reforms Bush opposed and only reluctantly signed.
- McCain was one of fourteen Senators that ended the deadlock over judicial nominations and led to the designation of moderate judges and a streamlining of the confirmation process.
This independent John McCain, the self-styled “maverick”, has been in remission during the GOP primary campaign as he ran to the right in order to win the primaries. But he has always been a maverick in the Senate and he picked up where he had left off during the convention.
Without being able to link McCain and Bush, Obama has no margin for error in handling McCain’s negative attacks. If the race had been Obama v Bush, no amount of negative advertising against Obama would have made much difference. Voters would simply be determined to risk it, take their chances, and vote for Obama if the alternative was four more years of Bush. But by presenting himself as an alternative vehicle for change and highlighting his record in shaking up Washington, McCain closes the gap between himself and Obama. Now doubts about the Democrat’s experience, qualifications, plans to raise taxes, and weakness in dealing with terrorism are all likely to push voters toward McCain. They never would have backed Bush, but they might well switch to McCain.
WHAT MCCAIN HAS TO DO NOW
Now McCain should pound away with negatives on Obama focusing on three key issues: taxes, energy, and terrorism.
Polls show that a majority of voters disbelieve Obama’s claim that he will not raise taxes on 95% of Americans. Indeed, the latest Rasmussen survey indicates that 56% believe he will raise their personal income taxes. It is a short leap from there to predict economic disaster if taxes are raised as broadly and as high as Obama has predicted. With the possibility of economic catastrophe looming ahead, voters may be reluctant to trust Obama’s tax and spending plans and may worry that he will sink the ship. Obama’s class-based rhetoric worked will among Democrats but cuts much less muster with Independents. When Fred Thompson characterized his tax program as saying “I will only take water from this side of the bucket not from the other side,” he struck a responsive chord.
If things are bad, the insurgent has the advantage. But if things could get a lot worse in a hurry, voters may not be willing to take a chance on a new candidate with an untried and untested approach.
The energy issue has become a class issue in our politics. Middle income voters feel that the elites are so anxious to save the global environment that they won’t permit oil drilling and don’t even want gas prices to come down. Energy independence and climate change, once parallel causes, are now in sharp conflict splitting the nation along class, age, and party lines. The older women, who are the core of Obama’s problem, are particularly sensitive to this issue.
Finally, Obama’s failure to show any strength in foreign policy and his appeal to both Georgia and Russia to “show restraint” in the recent invasion (where McCain spoke out forthrightly against Russian aggression) raise doubts among voters. As the threat of Iran going nuclear increases and the possibility of war in Eastern Europe between newly independent countries and a resurgent Russia increases, Americans may be loathe to trust an ingénue with foreign policy. Particularly if Israel takes military action against Iran before the election, a hot foreign environment could dictate switches to McCain.
To date, the McCain campaign has pursued targets of opportunity in its paid advertising, capitalizing on the embarrassment du jour of the Obama campaign. But the time has come for more discipline and focus to begin the slow pounding away at Obama with negative ads that raise doubts about his inexperience and liberalism.
THANK YOU!
***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2008. REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION ONLY***
DEMOCRATS IN TROUBLE
Published in the The New York Post on September 5, 2008
The convention floor was abuzz all yesterday with the news of the CBS poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn’t reflect the impact of John McCain’s speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin’s late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats’ convention, Barack Obama’s incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.
