Published on TheHill.com on September 16, 2008
There appears to be a gap of between 10 and 20 points between how voters see the parties and what they think of the candidates. Between one-tenth and one-fifth of America’s voters feel that the Democratic Party would be the best for the country but like the McCain-Palin ticket better.
• By seven points, they identify as Democrats more than Republicans. But by 16 points, they say that if they faced the “toughest decision of your life” they would go to McCain rather than Obama for advice.
• They think the Democrats will do better on healthcare by 19 points, but by 20 points they think McCain is more qualified than Obama to be president.
• They prefer the Democrats to deal with the economy by four points (down from 10 a few months ago) but feel — by eight points — that the Republicans better understand what it is like to live day by day in America.
• While they are more likely to vote Democrat for Congress, they rate Obama as more of a talker than a doer by 20 points and rate McCain the opposite by 15 and, by nine points, they think the Republican ticket has the better judgment than the Democratic nominees.
If this were a nonpartisan mayoral election, McCain would win in a walk. If this were a European-style proportional representation contest, Obama would be the next president by a good margin. But our system is a unique fusion, of course, of the two — a decision on the candidate and on the party.
How odd that Obama, with a world-class personality and an incredibly charismatic speaking style, should be losing the mano-a-mano contest to McCain, who is 25 years older and a foot shorter. But McCain has opened up a decisive lead over Obama, actually using the Democrat’s articulateness against him. Asked in the Fox News poll whether each candidate is a “talker” or a “doer,” voters perceive Obama as more of a talker by 15 points and see McCain as more of a doer by 24 points.
This kind of gap in the assessment of the candidates shows dramatically what a steep hill Obama has yet to climb. But the fact that the very same sample on the Fox News poll turned right around and voted for McCain by only three points shows how skewed the party preference is against McCain.
In effect, a lot of Democrats and independents are saying we trust McCain more, he has better judgment, he is more of a doer, and we think he’s more qualified — but we are going to vote for Obama because he is a Democrat and we agree with his party more on healthcare, energy and the economy.
Such a dichotomy is an unnatural political situation. Since 2000, we have become accustomed to 50-50 politics with each side holding its red states or blue ones close to its vest with few voters in the no man’s land in between. But the portrait that emerges from the polling is quite different. It is a consensus on how much water there is in the glass. The only difference is whether to see it as half-empty or half-full!
What will prevail? Party or candidate? It’s hard to tell. But debates are between people, not parties, and it is the three debates that will probably determine the outcome of this race.
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Comments
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Great piece. Something the MSM have missed.
You said, “Between one-tenth and one-fifth of America’s voters FEEL that the Democratic Party would be the best for the country but like the McCain-Palin ticket better.” Belief needs to dominate, rather than feeling, but historically, voters often times vote their “emotions.”
You said, “voters, if they faced the “toughest decision of their lives” would go to McCain rather than Obama for advice. It would be very scary to know that McCain’s finger is a centimeter awayfrom the “sny red button.”
“that the Republicans better understand what it is like to live day by day in America.” When you are in the corner of corporate America, it hard to understand what the life of the average person is. And if there were validity in that statement, why is the economy of the nation in such termoil…fail policies are fail policies.
“they think McCain is more qualified than Obama to be president.” November will prove whether you are right or wrong….and I believe that you are wrong.
“they rate Obama as more of a talker than a doer; and think the Republican ticket has the better judgment than the Democratic nominees. Well, I would conculde that the last eight years negates this statement. And as far as a talker than a doer, the time is coming for the “talk the talk” to begin “walk the walk.” Politicans often don’t deliver what the voters need, but rather what the politicans feel they will accept.
“How odd that Obama, with a world-class personality and an incredibly charismatic speaking style, should be losing the mano-a-mano contest to McCain, who is 25 years older and a foot shorter.”……someone suffering from a Napoleonic complex? Symbolism and being practical often returns on one’s investment.
Trust McCain, but vote for Obama because his party best represents what the average voter is concerned about. You call this a dichotomy……but it is more of an oxymoron.
Will the debates be the deciding factor? I agree, debates are about people, but but are historically link to that illusionary concept of Rebuplicans or Democrats…..it is just another tool of the political
panaroma of lip-widsom for the aim and purpose to alarm the populace with a series of hobglobins, all of which are illusionary. When November concludes……the rubber will meet the road…..and the time of honoring themselves will end.
I was listening to David Horowitz on the way in, and he said it’s nowhere near as close as most of the MSM says it is. Given the level of economic suffering in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Ohio is solidly red this time and Pennsylvania is on the edge of going that way.
Middle America isn’t yet ready to vote for a black man for President of the United States. That’s what no one seems to want to talk about. He should never have been nominated.
Dick, how about something on McCain’s recent tactic of seriously stretching the truth in his attacks on Obama. It seems to have dominated the MSM coverage. Is it a mistake? Will it help or hurt?
I doubt we are going to get much from the debates. Obama will look like a stuttering idiot and McCain will look like an old fart. Palin will clean Biden’s clock, but no one will care.
What will really deceide the election is a close in pre-election suprise. Al Quada will blow something up or Palin will turn out to be a practicing witch. Maybe Biden will drop out and Hillary will replace him. Whatever it is, it is the “October Suprise” that will shape the election.
xdreams: Palin is going to have a difficult keep her lipstick and Tina Frey spectacles on…….it is going to be interesting…..Joey “the shark” Biden againist Sarah “baracuda” Palin……Is this a remake of the Godfather?
I think the VP debate will be like watching a busy intersection hoping to see a car wreck. Odds are Palin will slip due to her lack of depth on many issues and odds are even higher that Biden will go true to form and switch off his brain when he opens his mouth. Either way it will be entertaining but really won’t matter much in terms of the outcome. Looks to me like the numbers are close and will stay close. If the polls are accurate we are in for a nailbiter on Nov 4th.
I think that we should begin considering the Nov 5 landscape. Predictably there will be cries of “foul” from all the usual suspects. It is revealing that rather than suggesting people verify now that they are properly registered to vote, the parties are hiring lawyers and planning on where they will complain that their voters were unfairly turned away.
I suspect that Sarah Palin will make out better than the armchair quarterbacks suspect. Biden will have to walk a fine line to avoid handing her either a big victory or a nasty beating. So long as she doesn’t start crying about the wrong thing, a la Ms. Ferrarro, she will win. Mr. Biden has a lot of skeletons in his closet and Ms. Palin will know ‘em like he was the bad dad in the PTA.
Mr. Biden will strive to show she is shallow in her knowledge of the minutiae of world politics. But, you don’t really have to know anything about the other team to play a good game, so long as you have good players. And I am sure you don’t take over the PTA in a small town without knowing how to apply the mud to your opponents.
I’m still banking on a bunch of October surprises. “… Ms. Palin… Exactly when did you stop practicing Inuit witchcraft?…”
It’s going to come down to some pretty basic issues — if one thinks more taxes (even on “just the wealthy, yet also on small businesses that will affect everyone) and bigger government programs (meaning, just bigger government and handouts that will go with it…except for half of the electrate who actually will pay for same), then vote Democratic. Anytime one hears the phrase, “Affordable Housing” recognize it means homes for those who cannot afford them and ought NEVER to be given loans. Yet the Democrates successfully pushed Fannie and Fredie to do just that. Now we’re in this crises because of the Congress. Why is nobody shouting this fact? Because the media ignores it. Wonder why?
Bama wants his protectionist ideas to prevail which will diminish our country’s hope in increasing our financial standing in the global economy.
In addition, Bama will avoid at all costs preventing Iran from attaining its goal to become a nuclear power–and provide deadly devices to anyone it chooses without leaving a fingerprint behind. His only plan to prevent same is to talk with Iran. Would he do more. I doubt it. The Europeans won’t either. They never do. Scary? I’d say so. But the crowd that chants, “No more war for oil” misses the very real dangers and paints with a broad brush that Bama can talk and charm his way into the hearts and minds of those bent on destroying us. Wanna take this chance? I don’t. Yet millions will–urged on by the media and Hollywood to not investigate issues they choose to not speak about. Better pray that our country wakes up and smells the coffee.
The democrats have the opportunity tomorrow to hand the Whitehouse to McCain/Palin. Ben Bernacke et al have put together a bold but necessary plan to save us all from the incompetence of the Bush administration and avoid a complete meltdown of the economy. A $700 billion vile pill to swallow. Reid and Pilosi can guide it through the weekend and keep it pure or they can play their usual games with it and try to add on numerous other initiatives on their political agenda. The latter would slow the legislation and I think bring many Americans to the end of their patience. It would show the democratic leadership to be out of touch with reality and even more incompetent than Bush and his cronies. This is a time for pure and clear thinking and solve the one problem in front of us, namely to enormous bad debt rung up by so many institutions. I can only hope.
So… Exactly how does the $700 Billion bitter pill get delivered to the average Aerican? Let’s see… I went out for groceries, gas, and got some paint for my daughter’s bedroom.
Then I went out and worked a few hours in the salt mine to pay my share of the $700 Billion…Not…
Exactly where does this shoe pinch? I don’t like the looks of it, but I am having trouble feeling much in the line of discomfort. And how about them Redskins!