Published in the The New York Post on September 5, 2008
The convention floor was abuzz all yesterday with the news of the CBS poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn’t reflect the impact of John McCain’s speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin’s late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats’ convention, Barack Obama’s incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.
That augers ill for the Democrats. Tonight’s polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.
First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of the Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President Bush. The Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time videotaped speech, and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.
The speeches, and the very fact of the Palin designation, repudiated Washington and focused on how McCain is an agent of change - this ticket is populist, reformist, anti-establishment, grass-roots and anti-corruption.
And McCain last night made the point plain: “Let me offer an advance warning to the old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first-country-second Washington crowd: Change is coming.”
If Bush were the nominee, this campaign wouldn’t suffice to push voters away from Obama. But now that McCain has moved decisively away from the administration, Obama’s lost much (at least) of his advantage on the issue of reform. Now other doubts about Obama could elect McCain.
The turning point was the designation of Palin and the personal attacks on her. By stirring up a storm, Democrats assured that Palin would speak to 37 million Americans - just a million fewer than watched Obama’s acceptance speech.
Anecdotal evidence already suggests that women may have a gut reaction to the establishment’s sexist assault on a woman candidate - and flock to McCain. They’ve seen him stake everything on this one big move of turning toward a woman - in direct contrast to Obama’s deliberate decision not to name a woman.
They’ve seen the media and Democrats gang up on her and do their worst. And they’ve seen Palin stand up and stuff the challenge right back down the establishment’s throat. All this may have created an entirely new dynamic in the race.
Now the Republicans must battle to underscore the threats this country faces, economically and internationally, and that we can’t let an ingenue take over. They must capitalize on McCain’s aggressive determination to bring reform to Washington and to emphasize Obama’s inexperience and failure to grasp how to change Washington.
But it was McCain’s gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to victory.
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Comments
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But now that McCain has moved decisively away from the administration, Obama’s lost much (at least) of his advantage on the issue of reform. You can take McCain out of the Bush-sphere, but you can’t take the Bush out of McCain. It is not an easy thing to do when you have sided with Bush 90 percent of the time.
Anecdotal evidence already suggests that women may have a gut reaction to the establishment’s sexist assault on a woman candidate - and flock to McCain. The Democrats nominated a woman for VP a quarter-century ago! If they’re only that far behind real change, I guess that’s progress — for the Republicans, anyway. During the civil rights struggle they were about a century behind. But stop pretending McCain has done something new — or that they’ve done it for anything but cynical, poll-tested reasons.
But it was McCain’s gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to victory. This is where Sarah Palin plays a factor– As a major distraction in the effort to divert attention from the matter at hand that McCain’s embraced all the things Bush and Palin is the perfect storm. Did you notice how much time McCain spent during the speech praising Palin and how quickly hercelebratory post-speech song shifted from “Raisin’ McCain” to “Barracuda.”
It will be all over and November Dick, and when you look out the window at Washington, you will notice that it hasn’t changed much externally, and you can be confident that it will not change much internally.
Dick:
Thanks, great report.
Is anyone doing legitimate research on Obama in connection with the Annenberg issue? Also the ‘highway to nowhere’ with earmarks for contstruction in the Chicago suburb that is benefiting democratic land owners, but taking away a long time family farm?
Also, Biden’s connection, if any, to his son’s latest lawsuit? His lobbyist connections (which apparently are vast) and any earmarks he has gotten for his district?
Thank you. Keep up the good work. Moey in Minneapolis
Here’s a tidbit for those who prefer facts to soundbites.
Obama and Biden voted with their party over 96% of the time. Near tops of all Senators
McCain voted with his party 88.3% of the time. Closer to the low end.
So who does this indicate is willing to stand up to their party for what they believe in?
Data is from the Washington Post database if you want to give yourself a headache searching it.
Just for good measure here is another thought about accuracy and soundbites. How do you vote “with Bush” when the President doesn’t vote?
Great job Dick. I read that Obama was served with papers by Phillip Berg regarding the legitimacy of his candidacy on September 4. Does this issue have any weight? Of course, we don’t hear much about it in the media.
Dick (if you read this stuff) you might have an answer for this one. Or maybe some other poster with access to details.
It would be interesting to know how many times in the last two years (Dem control) did McCain vote with the majority on a bill? That would be at least some indicator of his willingness to work towards compromise and solutions. Ditto for Obama during the years the Reps controlled the Senate.
Dick,
One very minor comment - I attended the University of Idaho in the 1980’s during the era Sarah Palin was there as a Communications/Journalism major - my major was Engineering and I was very pleased with the rigor of that program and did quite well. By the way, this little known institution has the highest percentage of National Merit Scholars in the Northwest. It also scores consistently high on the national engineering exams. But what is interesting is that I once took a speech course there - it was a very difficult course and I was mostly ripped to shreds by the instructor - a wizened old drill instructor of a woman. Honestly, I was lucky to pass that course. My impression of the Communications Department there was that they were quite demanding in general and it was all taken very seriously. Thus, Palin’s great delivery the other night and her reported quick recovery from a teleprompter failure was no surprise to me at all.
Best Regards and Keep Up the Fine Work
Has anyone heard either party candidate discuss nuclear fusion or any effort to speed up our nuclear fusion research efforts? Our cooperation in the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) project and support for research projects at universities like MIT and Univ of Texas are noted. We are supposedly decades away from a viable nuclear fusion source of electrical energy but this was very dependent on the price of oil which has moved significantly upward in the last 5 years. Fusion won’t directly help us with our combustion engine addiction but it could supply abundant, safe, CO2-free energy for generating electricity.
It has just been announced that Obama is flying to NY to meet privately with Bill Clinton on Sept. 11th after his appearance with McCain at a memorial service.
Here’s my prediction:
Not too long after this meeting, there will be an urgent announcement that Joe Biden has suddenly developed “urgent health or family problems” and must leave the ticket. Rising from the sidelines, Hillary will “sacrifice her family life and dedication to her duties in the Senate” to rescue the Dems in their time of
need and accept the nomination for VP.
Takers?
ame-hi. Your theory would best apply to Sarah Palin. I believe that she is going to step down before the Presidental election is concluded. McCain’s pick of a woman was a good strategy; but the wrong woman. Sarah Palin is the “new generation” of femminist emerging, but that is not going to happen for quite sometime.
Hillary can’t save Hillary, much less the Democratic party. That’s is not going to happen. The Clintons have too much “baggage”and, well for all the good that Hillary did (and that is questionable), Bill undid. It all about a dying political dynasty…..the Clintons…….what we need to do is to let them fade away in peace and into history.
I love the box the dems are in:
- Palin got $26 mill of pork for her town … right while Obama was asking for $740 mill for his and getting $220mill.
- Palin worshiped at the wrong church until 1992 .. they had radical views … wow lets see Obama take that one on.
Good one, bolafson. Interesting comment, michaelcoogen. I would LOVE to see the Clintons become fairydust, but they have this nightmarish ability to re-animate.
When do you see Sarah stepping aside and why? Pressure from McCain? The party? Continued media pressure on her family? Lackluster or lightweight performance during the debates or interviews? With whom would you replace her?
Palin stepping aside? This is outright hallucination. The best argument against her that has been put forth is that there may be, and probably are, better qualified executives that could have been named.
But this line of attack cuts against all the candidates. Obama had 300 Million people to choose from. Assume only one in 10,000 has what it takes to be a solid executive and qualifies for the office of VP. That leaves you with 30,000… And of those 30K Obama not only picks another Senator, but one who perennially runs for president and loses in the primaries.
The issue that Palin wasn’t vetted enough is just a fancy way for the MSM to explain why they didn’t see the nomination coming. You don’t need to interview a person to find out if they have legal or financial problems. McCain needed only to have a quick chat with Ted Stevens in the Senate cloakroom to get a feel for Palin’s ability to crack the whip and get things done.
Replacing Biden with Hillary would be an awkward move. It might work… But there must be thousands of better qualified replacements. Senator Obama isn’t going to find them in the Democratic Caucus of the Senate, and that appears to be the only place he looked.
Cheer up. McCain isn’t going to be a third term of Bush, and with Palin there growling at him, he might just give us the third term of Reagan that Bush41 promised & didn’t deliver.
ame-hi….I wish I knew….McCain choose the right gender, but the wrong woman. You want see very much of Palin between now and the debate. They have her under the blanket as part of damage control and prevent the media sharks from attacking. This earthy frontier governor is merely a “pawn of distraction” being used by McCain to advert attention from McCain-Bush policies….We will just have to let time play out. Dick Morris says, that by choosing Palin, McCain proved that he was not Bush….you can take McCain out of the Bush-sphere, but you can’t take the “Bush” out of McCain.
xdream…..Believe me, McCain is no Ronald Regan…..and as far as the hockey mom with lipstick……a lot of Palins came cracking the whip to Washington……and they all left in their political coffins…Washington is not Alaska……and Congress are no caraboues; just elederly Elks………with a lot of carabou experience.
I checked out that Berg vs. Obama. Hard to believe it will happen, but it would make for a real October suprise. Hillary won’t be replacing Biden… She will be replacing Obama.
I’m not gonna hold my breath. It seems like a real long shot.
xdream; You know what? When all is said and done and an individual is elected President; my alarm will go off the next day and off to work I will go…..that is “true reality.” Everybody is our friends………until they get elected.
What is the Annenberg issue?
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