Published in the The New York Post on September 2, 20008
Republicans shouldn’t mourn the loss of the first night (at least) of their convention. Sarah Palin’s warm reception by the American people and the relative success of preparations to contain the damage of Hurricane Gustav seem to have given the GOP far more bounce than it would’ve gotten from a “conventional” first night in St. Paul.
We’ll never know just how much Barack Obama gained in the polls from his magnificent acceptance speech. He spoke too late on Thursday for any post-speech polling to be effective - and John McCain announced his selection of Palin the next morning. So the Friday night polls reflected both the bounce from Obama’s speech and from McCain’s surprise - which seems to have neutralized the Democrat’s gains. (That night, Zogby gave McCain a two-point lead; Rasmussen found Obama three ahead.)
Our guess is that Obama’s speech had a huge impact - counteracted by a huge plus for McCain from his surprise pick of Palin.
Meanwhile, making up for the loss of the first night of the convention is the contrast between the chaos that greeted Katrina’s landfall in 2005 and this year’s smooth preparations. McCain, the administration and the GOP Gulf-state governors should all gain. At the very least, they’ve all shown that they’ve learned from the mistakes of three years ago.
Palin is a godsend to McCain. She injects charisma and novelty into what would otherwise have been a deadly dull ticket. She has a compelling record of battling corruption in Alaska - uncovering misconduct by fellow Republicans and beating a GOP pork-king governor in a primary.
And his choice of her suggests that the old John McCain - the bold, fighting Senate maverick - is back. (News that Palin’s daughter is pregnant should make no difference. The governor had disclosed the fact to McCain - and he, like the tolerant and wise person he is, accepted it.)
The Palin pick also aims straight at Obama’s biggest problem: his difficulty in attracting the votes of women over 40. To win in November, a Democrat needs to win this group by a wide margin - yet Obama now trails by four points.
Palin also makes it far harder to paint a McCain administration as a third term for Bush - yet the “Bush-McCain” charge lies at the core of Obama’s campaign.
What will be the next surprise of this remarkable political year?
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You might think that McCain reached for a star and grab one…..but I believe that the star that he grabbed (Palin) was a falling star. Young, attactive, christamic and a breath of fresh air………serves McCain’s campaign well, but McCain needs “fresh ideas,” not fresh faces. With all that is going on with the VP slectee, and now McCain is sending his posse of lawyers to Alaska to discover more about his VP slectee……it would not surprise me if Palin withdraws from the ticket……you might think that I’m crazy…..but this is going to turn into a nightmare for Palin……and as far as McCain……it will be even worse and his judgement will come into question again.
He is not going to have her resign. That is ridiculous. These things will help prepare her for the gutter she needs to fight in. If she takes on the establishment in Alaska then I think she takes it on in DC and them media. McCain and Palin may go down but they will be swinging all the way to the canvas.
Prediction: Sarah Palin will withdraw from the McCain…….
At first I thought the Palin choice was a great move - shake things up, get some disaffected women, etc. All of Dick’s points.
But learning more about her and the decision, I am now thinking it was a bad pick:
1) He only met her once, didn’t vet her properly. The decision was impulsive, which is the dark side of McCain’s Maverick image. W. decides with his heart rather than his head and Americans don’t like it
2) Her views are extreme - creationism, no exceptions for rape and incest, etc. This is popular with the extreme right, but it will lose McCain some middle of the road types. It sounds intellectually inflexible, another thing Americans don’t like about W.
3) She doesn’t have the pedigree. Americans are willing to take a chance on people with thin experience (JFK, Clinton, maybe Obama) if they feel that there is some upside potential to justify the associated risks. In Obama’s case part of that upside is his eloquance, obvious intellect, unifying persona, charisma, etc. Part of what makes people interested in Obama too is his educational pedigree (Columbia, Harvard). Call me an elitist, but proven intellectual horsepower is compelling. Again, another contrast with W., who went to Yale and Harvard, but only as an undeserving legacy and who many view as anti-intellectual or not intellectually gifted
4) Palin went to the University of Idaho, was mayor of a tiny town, believes in creationism. The pregnant teenage daughter - even if it’s not fair - contributes to an image of someone who doesn’t have the intellectual firepower needed to be the leader of the free world.
I think McCain might have lost himself the election with Palin.
here is one of Bloomberg News TOP articles today…
Obama Maintains Post-Convention Poll Lead Over McCain (Update1)
(Adds three polls beginning in second paragraph. For a
special report on the election: ELECT .)
By Nicholas Johnston
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama held on to his post-convention lead over John McCain, as Republicans gathered for the second day of their national convention in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Obama, a senator from Illinois, has a lead of just under 7 percentage points in an average of five national polls taken since the Democratic National Convention ended and McCain announced Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, according to figures compiled by the Web site Realclearpolitics.com.
Less than 2 points separated the two candidates before last week’s Democratic convention in Denver, which ended Aug. 28.
Candidates historically get a boost in poll ratings following their party conventions as voters pay more attention to the campaigns. The Republican convention ends Sept. 4, after McCain formally accepts the party’s presidential nomination. The Republican convention has been truncated by the impact of Hurricane Gustav, which hit the Gulf Coast yesterday.
The slow start didn’t worry some of the delegates in St. Paul for the Republican event.
“I think the campaign will take on a life of its own,” Dennis Galvin, 57, of Westford, Massachusetts, said on the convention floor.
50 Percent Mark
In a Gallup Inc. tracking poll covering the period of Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, Obama for the first time hit the 50 percent mark for public support in the poll, according to figures posted on the firm’s Web site. He led McCain by 8 percentage points.
Obama also was ahead in a daily tracking poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, which showed him with 48 percent support to 43 percent for McCain, a senator from Arizona.
A CBS News poll, which includes the vice presidential candidates, showed the Democratic ticket with 48 percent to 40 percent for the Republican candidates. In a CBS poll taken before Obama named Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate and McCain picked Palin, Obama led by 3 percentage points.
The poll showed that public opinion about the vice presidential candidates is still forming.
While 37 percent of those surveyed said they have a favorable view of Biden, a six-term U.S. senator, 47 percent are undecided or don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Palin was viewed favorably by 22 percent in the CBS poll and two-thirds were undecided or didn’t know enough about her.
Obama Ahead
A poll conducted by American Research Group Aug. 30 to Sept. 1 showed Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 43 percent. Another survey conducted for the National Journal’s Hotline publication showed Obama leading 48 percent to McCain’s 39 percent. Before the convention Obama had a 4-point edge in the Hotline/Diageo survey.
Of the six most recent polls, only one showed a closer race. A CNN poll conducted Aug. 29-31 put the contest at a tie.
The three-day Gallup poll surveyed about 1,000 people each day with the results combined into an average. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The Rasmussen survey interviewed 1,000 likely voters each night over three nights and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
CBS surveyed 781 registered voters and the poll has an error margin of 4 percentage points. The American Research Group poll interviewed 1,200 likely voters Aug. 30-Sept. 1 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The Hotline/Diageo poll contacted 805 registered voters Aug. 29-31 and had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
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The bounce clearly was not big and surely was less than MOST expected but this article points to at least ’some improvement’ in Obama’s #’s. Just an fyi. Charlie