‘SAFE’ PICK FOR TICKET LEAVES WOMEN SCORNED
Published in The New York Post on August 24, 2008.
It doesn’t take a political genius to realize that Barack Obama needed to nominate a woman for vice president.
Obama’s key problem is that there is no gender gap. In the most recent Zogby poll, he runs only two points better among women than among men. A Democrat should be running 10 to 15 points better among women.
If Obama is to have a hope of winning, he needs to improve his performance among female voters. A Fox News poll indicated that only about half of those who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries are voting for Obama and that fully one in five plans to support John McCain.
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY Volume 1, #33
DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY
Volume 1, #33
August 24, 2008
HOW THE CLINTONS FINESSED OBAMA
By sulking in his tent, Bill Clinton has finessed Barack Obama into making the biggest mistake of his candidacy – failing to name Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate.
The key to the Clinton game is that they understood, from the beginning, that Obama would not name Hillary to be his VP. They realized that she had far too much baggage and that they came as a package and Bill certainly had too much. They knew that the bad blood between the two camps was such that it was highly unlikely that she would be on the ticket.
That left the Clintons with two objectives:
a. they needed to be sure that no other woman would be nominated; and
b. they had to do what they could to stop Obama from winning
Bill and Hillary need to keep the former first lady at the head of the class among Democratic women. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the House is a real threat to her supremacy. They didn’t want another woman to vault over Hillary’s head to the top of the list. They had to prevent Obama from nominating Sebelius.
Obama needed Sebelius on the ticket. His key problem right now is his inability to carry women with nearly the level of support that a Democrat needs to win. In the latest Zogby poll, for example, he is running only two points stronger among women than among men. Normally, at this stage, a Democratic presidential candidate should be at least ten to fifteen points further ahead among women than among men. The fact that there is no gender gap is Obama’s chief strategic problem. The Fox News poll confirms these findings. One Hillary voter in five is now backing John McCain for president.
So the Clintons made a big show of negotiating with Obama for prime time speaking slots at the convention and Bill dropped comments indicating that Obama was not ready to be president. Her delegates were encouraged to speak out and demand a roll call and to insist that her name be put in nomination to celebrate what they called “the historic nature” of her candidacy.
But their real goal was to be so in Obama’s face that he didn’t dare to nominate another woman as vice president. By keeping Obama and his staff on egg shells about what the Clintons were doing and thinking, they bluffed them out of turning to a female candidate for vice president.
Had Obama chosen Sebelius, there is nothing the Clintons could have done about it. Hillary would have had to smile and celebrate the promotion of the cause of women. Her delegates might grouse over Obama passing over Hillary to name Sebelius, but women around the nation would have rallied to his ticket. It is exactly what a great many of them wanted: a woman other than Hillary. For her part, Hillary would have found it necessary to be publicly jubilant that a woman was nominated, much as it would have angered her inside. To do otherwise would have been to admit that her feminism was really ambition cloaked in gender.
Now the Clintons can move on to the second item on their agenda: stopping Obama from winning.
They need McCain to win in order for Hillary to run for president in 2012, just as they needed Bush to win in 2004 to pave the way for a Hillary candidacy in 2008. If Obama loses, Hillary can run for the nomination in 2012 on a platform of “I told you so” pointing to her warnings about how Obama could not win and about how the Democrats would be abandoned by women voters if they did not nominate her. McCain would be 76 were he to be re-elected and the voters might be disinclined to give him a second term, should he even seek it.
Their strategy to stop Obama from winning involved two elements: stop him from naming a woman running mate and hog the convention spotlight.
They could not have asked for a better scenario on the vice presidency that unfolded. Not only did Obama name a man, but he chose one born in 1942 – five years older than Hillary – who would be 70 in 2012, borderline too old to run for president. If McCain wins, he’ll likely give old presidents a bad name and it would make things so much harder for Biden to run. So Hillary not only escaped a woman VP but Obama picked a running mate not likely to pose a future threat to her ambitions.
In the meantime, they used the fact that Hillary would not be vice president to pry from Obama concession after concession in the convention scheduling. On Tuesday night, a film produced by Harry and Linda Bloodworth-Thomason, Hillary’s favorite filmmakers, will introduce Chelsea who will introduce Hillary who will then speak in prime time. On Wednesday, Bill will also address the convention in prime time. He is buried on the list with a bunch of other speakers, but you know the cable networks will cut away for his speech and likely not for any of the others, except, of course, for Biden’s acceptance speech. On Thursday, Hillary will be there in spirit as the roll call of the states records vote after vote for Mrs. Clinton, showing how Obama edged out the first woman with a chance to be elected so as to run on an all male ticket. Not a scenario geared to attracting female voters.
Geraldine Ferraro, the only woman to run on a major party ticket, is out there saying that Hillary should have had the right of first refusal. Her contention that Obama should at least have asked Hillary will become a focal point for women throughout the country. In rejection, Hillary can become the feminist icon she never was as she was running.
By making the convention one vast effort to portray Hillary as the victim of an oppressive male establishment, the Clintons will have succeeded in emphasizing who is not being nominated: Hillary Clinton.
But beneath it all, there is likely a real anti-Obama rage in the Clinton household. Since Obama won, he has dissed the Clintons personally in every way he could. Hillary was not vetted in the vice presidential process. She was never on any short list. Obama did not accept Bill’s invitation to have dinner together. When Hillary offered to campaign for Obama, he sent her to New Mexico and Orlando, not places guaranteed to get national media coverage.
So for the Clinton’s it’s the perfect combination: a male VP, Hillary looking like a victim, Obama hobbled by the absence of a gender gap, and all the face time they could want at the convention itself. In defeat, a win-win-win situation for the Clintons.
NOW WILL MCCAIN NOMINATE A WOMAN?
To complete the process, John McCain should nominate Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison as his running mate. While he is thought to be leaning toward Mitt Romney, naming a woman would completely pull the rug out from under Obama. After Obama has so ostentatiously declined to run with a woman, for McCain to take one on his ticket would be the height of skill.
Hutchison, pro-life and therefore acceptable to the Party base, would represent a statement of McCain’s openness to women and their political goals. She would be a continuing reminder to Hillary supporters of who is not on the Democratic ticket. In a swoop, McCain would open up a reverse gender gap and imperil the chances of the Obama ticket.
Were McCain to put her on his ticket, he would likely leave the two conventions with a good and solid lead that he could use all during the fall.
Unfortunately, the men around McCain are slow to see the attractiveness of the Hutchison scenario. They are so mired in their focus on the Republican base that they can’t look at the larger picture and go after swing voters – especially swing female voters.
The frustration of women with the Obama-Biden ticket would power an outpouring of enthusiasm among female voters for a McCain-Hutchison pairing. And their enthusiasm might just turn this election around.
THANK YOU!
***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2008. REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION ONLY***
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE THAT HASN’T YET STARTED
In following a presidential race, the most important way to understand what is happening is to follow voter responses to open ended questions. Those are questions which ask “What do you like the most about Barack Obama?” and “What do you like the least about Barack Obama.” These questions, which let voters tell pollsters what they think in their own words, offer the best way to figure out what is really going on.
BACK-TO-BACK CONVENTIONS: THE GREAT UNKNOWN
Published on TheHill.com on August 19, 2008
For the first time in memory, the two parties are holding their conventions right after one another. Within 72 hours of Obama’s acceptance speech on the night of Aug. 28, in front of 75,000 adoring fans outdoors at Invesco Field, the Republican convention’s opening gavel will come crashing down. How will it work? What will be the impact of these nearly simultaneous events? Nobody really knows, but the answer is critical. Usually, the post-convention polling sets a pattern that lasts at least until the candidates debate.
OBAMA’S WOMAN PROBLEM GOES WORSE
The worst thing about the new Zogby show that has Obama down five points to McCain (as opposed to his July lead of seven points) is that there is now virtually no gender gap in the race. In July, Obama was getting 53% of the support of women as opposed to 47% among men. But now he is winning only 43% of women and 41% of men, so while his male support is down by six points, his female backing is off by ten points.
RUSSIA AND GEORGIA: THE REAL STORY
Meet Igor Sechin, nominally the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia. In fact, he is the dominant power in the Kremlin. In Russia, the speculation is over whether Putin is his puppet! According to top Kremlinologists, Sechin was calling the shots when Russia invaded Georgia.
Take a minute to look at Sechin’s photo (Go to http://www.daylife.com/photo/0gul0IVfMXbEY). It explains all you need to know about him!
Robert Amsterdam, an international lawyer who knows all about the inner workings in Moscow, calls the invasion, in part, “an effort to sidetrack Dmitry Medvedev,” the newly elected Russian president who has focused on bringing to Russia the rule of law. Determined to show real power and to trivialize the legalisms of Medvedev, Sechin and Putin ignored the Russian president in invading their neighbor.
OBAMA’S BACKBONE DEFICIT
Published in the New York Post on August 18, 2008
Last week raised important questions about whether Barack Obama is strong enough to be president. On the domestic political front, he showed incredible weakness in dealing with the Clintons, while on foreign and defense questions, he betrayed a lack of strength and resolve in standing up to Russia’s invasion of Georgia.
This two-dimensional portrait of weakness underscores fears that Obama might, indeed, be a latter-day Jimmy Carter.
BOTH CANDIDATES LIKELY TO MAKE SAFE VP CHOICES
For both John McCain and Barack Obama, locked in a tight duel, safety seems to be the prevailing sentiment.
McCain is worried about a right-wing backlash against Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and even against Tom Ridge (the pro-choice Republican former Pennsylvania governor). The eminently safe choice for the GOP is Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor. His selection wouldn’t do much one way or the other, but it would give McCain a good talking head to complement his ticket.
Obama will, of course, steer clear of Hillary. He seems to have three key options for VP – Tim Kaine, the Virginia govenor; Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.); and Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.).
Bayh has gotten some flak lately from the left and is suspect on the abortion issue. He also is bound at the hip to Mark Penn, who wins no points in popularity on the left of the party. Kaine has the same defects that Obama has – he’s a former city councilman and mayor of Richmond, a city with less than 200,000 population (some colleges have more). So a state senator will run with a city councilman for president? I don’t think that will work well. Biden – crusty, talkative, argumentative old Joe Biden – might be the best choice. At least he knows where the men’s room is in the White House!



