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Everybody agrees that when Barack Obama finishes his historic outdoor acceptance speech on Thursday night and the 75,000 adoring fans in attendance finally quiet down, he will bounce up in the polls, likely to as much as a 10-point lead or even more.
Obama is at his best when delivering a telepromptered speech to a large and enthusiastic crowd. What would be a major task for some is just batting practice for this skilled orator. But how long will his bounce last?
To make it stay and not let McCain dissipate it with the Republican convention that will follow hard on the heels of the Democratic gathering, Obama needs to give a State of the Union speech, not a campaign speech, to his national television audience.
His trademark dialogue with his audience, in which they take turns repeating lines like “Yes we can” or “Not this time,” works well on a sweaty primary night when Obama declares victory, but it won’t be enough on Thursday night. His Berlin speaking style, threading the needle and walking the tightrope between policy options and broad principles with which no one can really disagree, will also lead to a quickly fading bounce. He may satiate his partisan audience, but he will not prevent the electorate from feeling a hunger for substance the next day.
Rather, Obama’s model should be Al Gore’s acceptance speech in 2000 or Bill Clinton’s in 1996. Both were virtual State of the Union speeches, delivered to an audience rather than to Congress, but televised and just as widely seen. In those speeches, his predecessors canvassed each aspect of public policy and articulated a program or initiative to move it forward. Each topic got its paragraph, punctuated at the end with an applause line. Then came a transition sentence into the next topic. This rote formulation, repeated over and over, sounds boring to speechwriters and may lack the emotional eloquence for which Obama is famous, but the time has come for the Democratic candidate to answer the question being asked about him all over: in effect, where’s the beef?
For his acceptance speech to carry him over through the week of the Republican convention and into the fall, it has to be a compendium of policy departures, outlining, in specifics, what he plans to do as president. He must lay out his future course plainly and in detail. Rhetorical flourishes will not serve as a replacement for hard proposals. To quote Obama, “Not this time!”
Television commentators may deplore the laundry list approach to such a speech, and his audience may find itself less moved or thrilled than usual, but he’ll just have to disappoint the folks. America knows that Obama offers hope and change and fresh approaches. But we don’t know what that means. We don’t understand exactly where he will take us, and his recent flipping and flopping obscures whatever clarity we might once have had.
But now Obama can set us straight and give himself an enduring platform for the rest of his campaign. In the primaries, Hillary was the candidate of issues and Obama was the voice of hope. When Clinton was expounding upon the details of her healthcare plan, Obama was soaring in his rhetoric promoting change. That was good enough for the primaries. But it won’t work in this speech. Can Obama do it? “Yes, he can.” But will he?
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Comments
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My heart picked up a bit and I caught myself saying, “Yeah, yeah” when I read Dick’s Sunday evening remarks and I am absolutely glued to the conventions - both of them, more than ever before.
Morris’ theory that Hillary is willing to throw the race to McCain, just to prove she should have gotten the nomination is absolutely brilliant. It reads a bit like a conspiracy theory but having followed this genius of politics, who is so familiar with the Clintons and their machine, over the past year and reading his explanation of just how conniving the Clintons really are (not that I ever had any doubt), is mind-boggling.
I didn’t realize “Bill Clinton has finessed Barack Obama into making the biggest mistake of his candidacy – failing to name … Kathleen Sebelius….”. I have thought all along Hillary (& Bill, for that matter) Clinton will stop at nothing and that until this thing is completely over, don’t count her out; but the idea that Obama played right into Bill’s hands by choosing Biden rather than Sebelius makes perfect sense. The man is indecisive and dangerous as president.
But what really got my adrenaline flowing is Morris’ idea that McCain should choose Kay Bailey Hutchison as his VP. I have felt for a long time a woman was imperative to McCain’s ticket and I have many times wanted him to choose Condi Rice. Morris’ comments that her relationship to Bush makes sense, in spite of the fact I think Condi is smarter than the entire democratic party put together and that I have always have been extremely loyal to George Bush and will remain so, believing that history will prove him to be a great American president as well.
I do not want or like Romney. He scares me with his sudden pro-life shift. How can a God-fearing Christian ever have doubts on this subject? But Hutchison is the perfect answer – and I hope McCain is listening to Dick Morris. It is ingenious and for the first time, I am beginning to believe that if he does this – he will win in November!
I have talked with more than twenty people who are just marginally following the race. None were aware that Senator Obama does not want to do a face to face debate with Senator McCain or anyone else who might give him an honest challenge.
Strikingly most of these folks, all Maryland Liberals, said they would not trust Senator Obama if he declined an opportunity to go at it, verbally, with his opponent. Even the die hard Obama supporters didn’t like Senator Obama’s fear of extemporaneous unscripted debate, but gave him only a lukewarm pass. None were very happy when advised of Senator Obama’s position.
Of course they conditioned their stances on the basis of the assumption that it is true that Senator Obama doesn’t want to debate and Senator McCain does, which is neither widely known nor easily verified.
McCain, although not in his profile, “needs” to choose a woman as his VP running mate. It was the Clinton’s objective to have Obama not choose a woman for VP and they sort of knew that because Obama needed to add strength to his foreign policy weakness, since the Bush Administration’s foreign policy is no more than failed diplomacy.
McCain’s foreign policy experience is not much better. McCain has one standard formula for foreign policy……and that is military action. And to most Americans, the war in Iraq seems to have faded and is no longer a major point of interest since the US and Iraq are close at reaching an agreement for troop withdrawl from Iraq. That is a mis-conception in itself. Wars just don’t abruptly end with the signing of an agreement. Been there, done that.
McCain’s weakness is economic policy and he needs to add strength to fill that void…however, with the most all male gentlemen’s club, his selection of a woman will not come without resistance…..it would only be to gain the advantage of capturing those staunch Hillary supporters who are not going to vote for Obama anyway. It is a dangerous gamble, however, if McCain does select a woman for his VP running mate, he will easily walk into the White House. Of course, it is all speculation….because know one really knows how the American voters will vote until the last hour draws near.
I would conclude that, at best, Obama will loose 15% of the woman voters, because when it comes down to it, America doesn’t want to add four more years of the same to the last eight years.
Obama will give the speech of his life at the Obamapalooza in Denver and hopes that it resonates to all of American and continues to until November. It will probably be the greatest lip-widsom he has ever spoken….and it has to be….because all the marbles are on the table……and the “winner” takes all.
The only permanent “bounce” Obama will get depends entirely on Hillary. If she convinces her supporters to come over he will get a bounce, otherwise come November no one will remember the blah blah blah of the convention including what will be another feel good speach by Obama.
Bill will be largely irrelevant. He will either sink himself (further) or have no effect.