OBAMA STRIKES FIRST
Published on FOXNews.com on July 4, 2008.
The campaign of 2008 started on July 1 when Obama launched his first national advertising buy of the season. How McCain responds and whether or not he does, will have a big impact in determining whether Obama can solidify or expand his current lead in the polls. As always, the media fails to cover the significant events of the campaign – but this is one of the most critical.
The Obama ad, which introduces him as someone who worked his way through college, fights for American jobs, and battles for health care also seeks to move him to the center by taking credit for welfare reform in Illinois which, the ad proclaims, reduced the rolls by 80%.
PLUGGING THE PATRIOTISM GAP
Published in The New York Post on July 2, 2008.
Barack Obama yesterday kicked off a week of patriotic speeches. It’s much more than the normal politician’s July 4 oration – it’s Obama’s answer to a crucial test.
After all, millions of Americans have seen the tapes of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright – Obama’s longtime pastor – damning America, painting our nation as the world’s villain. So voters have a right to wonder how pro-American Obama really is.
A question on such an existential level is unusual in politics – but so is Rev. Wright.
Obama’s first “patriotism” speech yesterday struck just the right notes in articulating his love of America. If he keeps it up, it will go far toward easing voters’ concerns.
SUPREME COURT BOOSTS OBAMA
Published on TheHill.com on July 1, 2008.
The nine august justices of the United States Supreme Court – or at least the five conservative Republicans – chose the wrong time to make a sea change in constitutional law, admitting the Second Amendment to our pantheon of civil liberties.
By demonstrating how willing they are to toss aside decades of jurisprudence in pursuit of a conservative agenda, they sent a chill into the souls of women all across the nation and resurrected fears that Roe v. Wade is next on the chopping block. At a time when the GOP should try to assuage the concerns that lead women to vote Democratic by 10 points more than men do, the Supremes have escalated the angst on which Democrats can and will play in the run-up to November.
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS
Preview:
| STATE | VOTE | 00, 04 RESULT | ’08 PREDICTION |
| ALABAMA | EV 9 | B,B | LEAN MCCAIN |
| ALASKA | EV 9 | B,B | MCCAIN |
| ARIZONA | EV 10 | B,B | MCCAIN |
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS
STATE VOTE 00,04 RESULT ’08 PREDICTION
ALABAMA EV 9 BB LEAN MCCAIN
ALASKA EV 3 BB MCCAIN
ARIZONA EV 10 BB MCCAIN
ARKANSAS EV 6 BB LEAN MCCAIN
CALIFORNIA EV 55 GK OBAMA
COLORADO EV 9 BB TOSS UP
CONNECTICUT EV 7 GK OBAMA
DELAWARE EV 3 GK OBAMA
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA EV 3 GK OBAMA
FLORIDA EV 27 BB TOSS UP
GEORGIA EV 15 BB LEAN MCCAIN
HAWAII EV 4 G 00 B 04 LEAN OBAMA
IDAHO EV 4 BB MCCAIN
ILLINOIS EV 21 GK OBAMA
INDIANA EV 11 BB MCCAIN
IOWA EV 7 G 00 B 04 LEAN OBAMA
KANSAS EV 6 BB MCCAIN
KENTUCKY EV 8 BB MCCAIN
LOUISIANA EV 9 BB MCCAIN
MAINE EV 4 GK OBAMA
MARYLAND EV 10 GK OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS EV 12 GK OBAMA
MICHIGAN EV 17 GK LEAN OBAMA
MINNESOTA EV 10 GK LEAN OBAMA
MISSISSIPPI EV 6 BB LEAN MCCAIN
MISSOURI EV 11 BB TOSS UP
MONTANA EV 3 BB MCCAIN
NEBRASKA EV 5 BB MCCAIN
NEVADA EV 5 BB LEAN OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE EV 4 B 00 K 04 LEAN OBAMA
NEW JERSEY EV 15 GB OBAMA
NEW MEXICO EV 5 G 00 B 04 LEAN OBAMA
NEW YORK EV 31 G 00 B 04 OBAMA
NORTH CAROLINA EV 15 BB LEAN MCCAIN
NORTH DAKOTA EV 3 BB MCCAIN
OHIO EV 20 BB TOSS UP
OKLAHOMA EV 7 BB MCCAIN
OREGON EV 7 GK OBAMA
PENNSYLVANIA EV 21 GK LEAN OBAMA
RHODE ISLAND EV 4 GK OBAMA
SOUTH CAROLINA EV 8 BB LEAN MCCAIN
SOUTH DAKOTA EV 3 BB MCCAIN
TENNESSEE EV 11 BB MCCAIN
TEXAS EV 34 BB MCCAIN
UTAH EV 5 BB MCCAIN
VERMONT EV 3 GK OBAMA
VIRGINIA EV 13 BB LEAN MCCAIN
WASHINGTON EV 11 GK OBAMA
WEST VIRGINIA EV 5 BB MCCAIN
WISCONSIN EV 10 GK LEAN OBAMA
WYOMING EV 3 BB MCCAIN
McCain Total = 202
LEAN MCAIN = 72
MCCAIN = 130
Obama Total = 269
OBAMA = 186
LEAN OBAMA = 83
TOSS UP = 67
