Published on FOXNews.com on June 11, 2008.
Bill Clinton’s selection of Al Gore changed forever the calculus presidential candidates need to use in choosing their running mates. Previously, presidential candidates usually used their VP pick to help them to carry a pivotal state or region, as JFK did in choosing Lyndon Johnson in 1960.
But the single state theory doesn’t work anymore. Voters can tell the difference between the first and second place on the ticket and don’t let the tail wag the dog in determining their votes. After all, John Kerry couldn’t carry North Carolina even after putting Edwards on his 2004 ticket.
Instead, presidential candidates should use their VP choice to make a statement about their own candidacy. The vice president is a candidate’s first and most important appointment. Gore served Clinton well because his selection made the generational subtext of the race against Bush Sr. explicit — two babyboomers challenged the last of the G.I. Generation presidents.
This year, Barack Obama suffers from an obvious lack of Washington and national security experience. Even his most avid fans have to wonder if two years in the U.S. Senate (before he started to run for president) is enough experience. Just as Bush, who had never served in Washington, chose Cheney and Dukakis looked to Lloyd Bentsen to provide gravitas and federal expertise, so Obama needs to look toward Washington in finding his running mate.
He needs to select someone with national security credentials and DC know-how. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Joe Biden (D-Del.) impressed us all in the Democratic debates. He, or Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), would make good choices.
Obama would be ill-advised to choose Hillary since Bill comes as part of the package. The former president’s lack of campaign trail discipline and questions about his recent financial dealings would dog the Democratic ticket, burdens Obama does not need.
The obvious temptation for Obama is to choose another woman to reach out to the Hillary supporters. But it’s hard to find one who satisfies the need to bolster his national security credentials.
For McCain, the pressing need is to lend excitement to his candidacy. His low key delivery (one often wonders if he is putting himself to sleep with his own speeches) does not provoke anything like the excitement that Obama does. He needs to go for a “WOW” in his choice of a vice president — like Mondale did in 1984 when he chose Geraldine Ferraro. He lost, but it wasn’t Gerry’s fault.
Where could McCain get a “WOW”? The most obvious choice would be Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Her intellect and genuine model of feminism (moving up without a husband to blaze the path) make her very attractive. She’s identified with the Iraq War, but no more so than McCain himself, and her forthright battle against Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions would burnish her credentials.
But Condi may not want it. Her predecessor as secretary of state, General Colin Powell would also bring a pretty good sized “WOW” with him. While he was tarnished by the false intelligence information on which he relied to defend the Iraq War in the United Nations, Powell still has plenty of star dust. And both Powell and Rice know how to handle themselves under pressure.
Or McCain could cross party lines and choose Connecticut Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman. By demonstrating that his candidacy is truly post-partisan, McCain could be the first presidential candidate to run on a coalition ticket since Abraham Lincoln did it at the height of the Civil War in 1864. The prospect of a bi-partisan ticket would be irresistible to many swing voters and would graphically offer rebuttal to the charge that McCain is just Bush III.
Even if Rice says no, McCain could still achieve a “WOW” by choosing a woman for his ticket. But here he has to be careful. There is no clear standout choice among GOP female senators or governors. To reach down and tap one of those who are available could carry a risk that she would not be able to handle herself well at the national level.
So Obama needs a VP who offers reassurance and McCain needs a WOW. No ordinary running mate will do for either ticket.
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Won’t argue with you on Obama’s VP since it will have minimal significance unless he makes the mistake of choosing Hillary. However, you really have missed the mark on McCain’s choice. Condi & Colin are superior people however both have expressed in the past they do not intend to run and McCain would be accused (unfairly) of pandering. The Democrats would paint them both as tokens, not black enough,… you know the game. They deserve more respect than that and I I don’t see a WOW here. Leiberman is a great American and would be a coup of sorts going from Gore’s VP to McCain, but he wouldn’t add the WOW we’re looking for. All three of your suggestions would be excellent cabinet considerations, but the real WOW would be Mike Huckabee. I can’t believe you didn’t even mention him!
He electrified those who watched the debates. He succeeded against unbelievable odds and a GOP coalition who for whatever reason didn’t like him. It would provide a BIG WOW to the naysayers and show McCain is still a maverick and would choose a person who can help him in the South and evangelical community regardless of the beltway crowd and talking heads. McCain doesn’t need to counter with picks based on race or gender, but with excitement > Mike Huckabee is the WOW who can help him win. Don’t take my word for it > ask Elizabeth Dole and other candidates Mike Huckabee has assisted. They will tell you -”WOW!”
Randy Whitman
Toledo, Ohio
Rice, Powell and Lieberman would all be dramatic and impressive picks for McCain. But I believe he is committed to a pro-life VP, and I do not believe any of the three are pro-life.
I agree, Obama needs a VP to add value to his candidacy where he is precevied to be weak. As reported, Hillary made the short list, but that is only courteous politics. He is caught in a tumble weed..he needs the Hillary’s voters and their support and he needs a strong VP to counter his national security weakness. To consider Hillary as a running mate doesn’t resolve his weakness, but only strengthens his campaign in a broader sense..the Hillary voters. Obama knows that he is probably only going to receive about 60% of the Hillary voters and delegates that Hillary is hoarding in her purse, and with that margin, he should fair well in the general election; although I think he could be elected without Hillary supporters. Hillary, although a short list potential running mate, should not even be considered in the final round. That would be Obama’s worse mistake and would cost him the Presidency. Obama has a difficult choice to make.
McCain, well it doesn’t appear that a “WOW” is in his future except a shot of Geritol. Ms. Rice, would be exactly what you said; a feminist who move up the ranks without a husband, but then again, if I can see through that smoke screen, so can the balance of the America voters. It would be precieve as a political move to get elected….and again…she is linked to the Bush administation tarnish….says a lot without much results. Collin Powell, well he got tarnished along with Ms. Rice and would be preceived as another Bush DNA…although he still has a lot of star sparkling, he has been wounded to many times to get back into the political war.
As far as Liberman, he is just a “displaced political remora”, looking to attached to another candidate for his personal gains and advancement, a McCain’s Hillary. Both candidates have some serious issues and as I look at it, I think that McCain is in worse shape than Obama. It is going to be interesting how each deals their political cards. Although the Presidency is the ultimate goal, I believe that the candidate’s choice of VP will probably be more critical than the Presidency itself. You often hear, that the main focus is the presidental candidate, and that the VP is part of the package…but their selection of who is going to be their VP candidate will either add or detract away from the final prize. Political times have change and the candidate who can adjust to the changes will be the most successful……November will verify who made the best choice.
[…] post by Dick Morris on how the calculus of selecting a VP candidate changed starting with Clinton / …. A running mate used to be selected to provide balance and deliver a region or state outside […]
Mitt Romney…great money man…not speech challenged…easy on the eyes…somewhat conservative…Michigan.
Turn off the lights…
jb
Rice, Powell and Lieberman would all be dramatic selections for McCain. However, I believe that Senator McCain has said he will only pick a pro-life VP. To my knowledge, all 3 are pro-choice. So he may have to go with a more boring selection.
He needs to pick a person who would help him in the area he knows the least about. And that is the encomony. He also needs to pick a guy that would not only appeal to conseravtives, but also to “Reagan Democrats”. In my opinion only one Man foots that bill and it’s Mitt Romney! The Republicans absolutely need to take a couple of “Blue States”. I think Romney could definately put Michigan in play. He could also help McCain win Ohio much easier than Bush did in 2004. To me, its a no brainer that McCain MUST pick Romney or there’s no way he’ll win the election. Picking Huckabee as the V.P. will not help McCain win any blue states. If he picks Huckabee, Obama will win the election and it won’t even be close!
If McCain doesn’t pick Mitt Romney as his V.P., then he will definately lose. He needs to pick a person who can deliver a blue state or two. Romney can do that. If he picks a far right conservative, (like Huckabee) than there is no way Reagan Democrats will vote for that ticket. Also Romney will make up for McCain’s admitted lack of knowledge about the economy. McCain/Romney will win the election easily!