Hillary’s suspension of her campaign, and her omission of any release of her delegates, makes her a factor for Obama to consider for the next three months until the Democratic nomination is officially and finally his. Absent an actual statement to her delegates urging them to vote for Obama on the first ballot, Hillary’s candidacy cannot be said to have ended.
Rather, the former First Lady will be slowly circling overhead during June, July, and August waiting for Obama to make a mistake or stumble. Throughout the next three months, there will always be the possibility that he errs so badly that Hillary gets back into the race. Should another pastor rear his head or if one of the mythical tapes that are said to be about to emerge does, in fact, exist, Obama cannot rest secure in the nomination as long as Hillary is overhead, waiting.
Even if all of the super delegates desert Hillary, as most will now do, she still has 1,639.5 pledged or elected delegates to call her own. While these men and women can legally vote for either candidate, regardless of the slate on which they were elected, one must assume that they are true Hillary believers, who would not have been put on her slate to begin with. These pledged delegates mean that she is always just a step or two away from the nomination, should Obama commit a faux pas.
And there will be many opportunities for Obama to err over the next three months. With John McCain keeping up the pressure by suggesting ten town meetings between now and the conventions, at which the two putative candidates appear side by side, a weak debate performance or a decisive McCain win in any one of them could trigger a crisis for Obama which Hillary could move to exploit.
General election candidates usually try to move to the center after they have won their party nominations, but Obama may find his maneuvering room cut by Hillary’s hovering overhead. Any move to suggest that he might re-engage in Iraq should things fall apart or that he may not raise taxes for ambitious health care plans during a recession – any departure from Democratic Party orthodoxy – could lead to grumbling by Hillary supporters and crimp Obama’s flexibility.
Oddly, McCain finds himself in a parallel predicament. Republican leaders are worried that he is not a true Republican and concerned about his liberal positions on issues like climate change, alternative energy sources, torture of terror suspects, and corporate governance reform. His ability, too, to move to the center is handicapped while he awaits his coronation in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
But Obama’s is the deeper predicament since, unlike McCain, he does not have a rival whose vote share begins to equal his at his party convention.
Is Hillary deliberately creating such an insecure position for Obama? Otherwise, why did she not direct her delegates to vote for Obama on the first ballot? She claims that she wanted to see her name introduced in nomination and demonstrate her large total vote for her daughter’s sake? But wouldn’t it be more accurate to say that while she has suspended her campaign, she has not left the scene?
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Dick:
She is undermining his nomination and is doing it so well and tactful. Her 18 million voters, less 60%, is now less decisive, but still a major factor and the only card she has to play is the 1640 delegates, her true believers…her potential ace in the hole. Assuming that Obama’s does not err, and I don’t think that he will, they will leave her standing dry and alone. I think that Hillary is going to make a threshold attempt at the convention. It doesn’t matter at this point, because what has she really got to loose. All she has to do, should Obama make a mistake, is to convince the delegates they were misguided and were mistaken in their pledge. It is a long shot, but if they give her a “Hillary Night” at the convention, and they probably will as a gesture of her hard fought campaign…..this is where she will strike. I’m not a savvoy politician like yourself, but one thing that I do know and I learned from Vietnam….strike when they least expect…that’s the advantage. The Democratic party is now showing growing concern about the post mortem grumbling of the Hillary supporters……and that is just the popular vote….what about her true believer? She will get the last “lick” before all of this is over……and it is like you said…….it is never over for the Clintons…..even when it is obivious. Obama’s nomination is eating at the core of Hillary like a cancer….and like cancer is uncurable……so what is there to loose when you know that you are in essence “politically dead.” There is no 2012 for her…..it is now or never. She can never bury the garbage deep enough that she has accumulated throughout her political career….and she owes part of that to Bubba.
[…] If Obama’s wife or supporters don’t do him in, he’ll do himself in with his constant displays of complete inadequacy. Take his tele-prompter away and he’s like an epileptic in a strobe light factory. I wouldn’t let the guy run a Burger King drive-thru much less our beloved republic. Dick Morris has convinced me that’s why Hillary didn’t really quit. […]
Obama cut his teeth in Chicago politics. I am sure he and his friends can handle Clinton(s). It will be good practice for being President where there will be a lot of “Clintons” looking for a target on his back.
[…] will she? An article by the GREAT Dick Morris paints an interesting situation. Dick Morris. com - HILLARY CIRCLES SLOWLY OVERHEAD HILLARY CIRCLES SLOWLY OVERHEAD at DickMorris.com Excerpts from the article Hillary’s suspension […]
[…] Dick Morris has it RIGHT. […]
That title had us laughing all day! So creepily right. Meanwhile, it seems like the press is picking up on Bubba’s latest antics with an enthusiasm we haven’t seen since Britney and Anna Nicole were the focus of the day’s news. Surely enough to remind folks of the Clinton era’s tacky past.
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