Published in the New York Post on May 7, 2008.
She lost hard in North Carolina, and barely held on to win Indiana. Hillary Clinton just doesn’t have enough straws left to clutch. The best (or worst) she can hope to do the rest of the way is bloody Barack Obama enough to make him lose in the fall, allowing her to come back in 2012.
In fact, Obama basically clinched the nomination with his string of 11 straight primary and caucus wins in February, many by wipe-out margins - giving him a lead in elected delegates that Clinton couldn’t hope to close, especially given the nutty proportional-representation rules that govern the Democratic Party.
Do the math. Last night’s results leave him with a lead among elected delegates of 150 or so, and among all delegates of around 130.
Only a handful of states are left to vote, with a combined total of about 230 delegates. She’ll probably win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico - and lose Oregon, North Dakota, and Montana. She most likely could pick up a net 10 delegates, leaving him with a lead of at least 130 (110, counting in superdelegates).
If Hillary manages to get Florida and Michigan seated (which she won’t), she’ll net another 47 delegates. So Obama, worst case, will have a lead of at least 60 delegates. Most likely, it’ll be more than 100.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Chairman Howard Dean have all made it clear that they expect superdelegates to decide who to support within (in Reid’s words) “days, not weeks” after the last ballots are cast on June 3.
In that environment, Obama - who’ll be only about 100 delegates short of a majority - will be an irresistible choice. Few superdelegates will want to risk civil war by overruling the verdict of the voters - and almost all will want to climb aboard the victory bandwagon so as not to get shut out of the White House for four (or eight) years.
In the past few months, Obama has closed Clinton’s lead among superdelegates from 60 to 20. The trend will accelerate after popular voting ends; he’ll probably pass the 2,025 threshold in the first two weeks of June.
Clinton may stay in, hoping to can seat Florida and Michigan. But she won’t win there, either.
The Credentials Committee, which will make the key report, consists of three votes for each state or territory. The remaining contests will leave him with, at worst, a 10-state lead. Howard Dean names 25 committee members, but she can’t prosper unless he stacks them all for her - and, if anything, he’ll go the other way.
Having lost there, her only option would be to appeal to the convention floor - where neither of the contested delegations can vote on their own credentials, virtually assuring an Obama victory on the credentials fight and the nomination.
Clinton may well fight all the way - she’s stubborn and dedicated. More, she’s also farsighted and devious: She could hope to so bloody Obama that he can’t beat John McCain. If McCain wins, she could get the Democratic nomination in 2012 - and, with McCain closing in on 76 and after 12 years of GOP rule, win.
But one thing is clear: Obama has this nomination sewed up.
 |
Comments
Only subscribers to Dick Morris' '08 Play-By-Play may post comments. You must be logged in to post a comment.
[…] DickMorris.com Share […]
[…] and after 12 years of GOP rule, win. But one thing is clear: Obama has this nomination sewed up. The Source __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ How May I Help You? PM me through this link if […]
Dick, I agree with your analysis and prediction. As you have said before the outcome has been clear for sometime. There is however a very disturbing aspect to the campaign. Your other comment “Hillary is not fooling anyone” is not true. I look at the vote count in Indiana and North Carolina and she obviously “fooled” a lot of people. Hillary has run a campaign of lies,half truths,disparagement put forward as “everything but the kitchen sink” and yet large numbers of people accept this I suppose as “its politics”. What ever happened to integrity, honesty and true respect for the American people. Maybe I am wrong and there are a lot of us who just don’t or won’t think for ourselves. When will we really wake up and demand more from our leaders. I watched a bit of CNN last night and it sickened me to see a Joel somebody and Lanny whatever looking the camera in the eye while they spewed illogical arguments in a blatent attempt to con the audience while the CNN commentators nodded their heads. Just a few:
- the SuperD’s should nominate HRC because the polls show she is better positioned to beat McCain and in the same breath, if they actually breath, we are disenfranching the voters of Michigan and Florida by not counting their votes. If I understand their argument then it is ok to disenfranchise the 16 million or so people who voted for Obama but not those in Mich/Flor. … hmmm.
- Hillary won the big states in the intra-dem election so will win the general election against the repubs. Lets see, the high school basketball coach hold a skins vs shirts game. The shirts win and the coach boldly predicts the shirts will win the state championship. Wow that must be true.
- Next, we democrats must see this through to the end of the primaries and the convention … it is the truly democratic way. On the other hand we do hope for a process that would not stand up to scrutiny in a third world dictatorship election where the SuperD’s simply ignore the election process that had gone on for months and months and nominate Hillary because the “polls” indicate she might win in November. Great! Nothing “disenfranchising’ here.
… and on and on and on. Basically BS, unchallenged by the media bobble heads.
Dear Mr. Morris,
An Economist substituted for Rush the other day, and said that on Obama’s website that the second page described how Obama is going to tax small businesses, and Obama describes 4 huge Government give away programs. This needs to be hammered home!!!!
Jeannette Germann
g
This democratic race got my attention on the media. Wow, do we have a huge problem with our media turning into puppets for thier corporate masters. We need to stop the Corporations from buying up our media or it will cease to serve as a checks and balance of our government as intended by our founding fathers. It has been truly amazing and sad to witness.
Now, the race. I predicted if Obama survived Feb. 5th he would be our next president. I am sticking to my predictions. The Obama jet is on the runway gasing up for take off. Step back for the ride of our life times.
Mercedes is right Dick. Where are the journalists?
I learned one thing in Vietnam……if you are going to die or be defeated……..don’t go alone, however, Hillary continuation with her campagin will only damage her more, if not permenantly in her political career. I predict that she will be focusing her political ambition on something more local, like governor of New York or mayor of New York City. Honestly, that is all that is really left for her. When she returns to Congres after this campaign, she will even be more isolated by her colliegiates for the type of campaign that she ran. She looses both ways.
IT’S ALL OVER, SEN. CLINTON
From DickMorris.com:
Clinton may well fight all the way - she’s stubborn